Member Info for fatherelmer

So is something actually happening now as what is said here has been the plan since the ATR were announced back in September 2017??

Krispy, agreed that is one potential future (that has been mentioned). However, what is the timescale on that? How will it be paid for (by SPMP - in which case the Dividends will reduce, by TSTR?) too many unknowns and at present a little too much 'jam tomorrow' to keep PIs interested (given that the first Roaster is both behind schedule and over budget).

Printerruss, no crusade just saying as I see it - though I am feeling somewhat 'led down the path' by the company over the last 12 months, and do believe there is a significant further risk to come (though I'd love to be proved wrong) - this is supposed to be a place of discussion isn't it? If you disagree, or don't like my views, please feel free to disregard, ignore or you could come back with a counter argument as to why I'm wrong? If I remember correctly your holding is one of the largest of the regular contributors (and certainly larger than mine) and so you have more at stake than I do. Don't get me wrong I think the OAR is great it's just that the last 12 months seem to have gone against the PI (in a major way) and so this investment opportunity is now not what it once was (for me).

Excellent point! I guess this would not only increase capacity (though perhaps not if some frequencies were reduced due to longer flight times) and free up the 2 ERJ145s for (re)deployment elsewhere (say Mozambique or South Africa).

Krispy, fair point I made an error as I should've used GBP and not USD. However, that doesn't change my view that this is not an income share, and whilst I can't argue with the logic of your SP prediction, at those levels that is pretty poor, and remember this is only once full production has been achieved ie not until end 2019 / 2020 onwards.

Interesting, I could see the ATR72s deployed as follows.... - 1 to Zimbabwe to support the routes (exc BUQ) mentioned here - 1 to Tanzania to support smaller airports / thinner routes such as Kigoma, Mtwara, etc - 1 or 2 to Mozambique if fastjet gets to operate more domestic routes under the recent MoU You could also make a case that a deployment in South Africa (via Federal Air) also makes sense though given the fact that it is by far and away the largest, and most developed market, with the best infrastructure in Africa I would've thought that going in with E190s from the off was okay.

fjetcrazy, apologies if I've 'let the cat out the bag' as it were, in that case!! Though to me this only becomes positive news when it is agreed and that it is actually happening - from looking at the tweet that I found (and posted) Jerry Haas is suggesting that this isn't happening any time soon - have I misunderstood??

TDT, no one on here has any idea of the costs involved (for feedstock, energy, people, consumables, taxes, financing, etc) but assume everything will be okay because the 40% share of full production turnover is ca. $73m, of which most will be paid to TSTR, who in turn will then pay all of this out to us PIs. My own guess is that SPMP dividends will be no more than 10-20% of this turnover figure, and that in turn TSTR dividends will be no more than 30% of what they receive (so somewhere between $2-5m). On this basis, with ca 64bn shares, this should not be regarded as an income share.

Is this perhaps what you meant / were hinting at??? https://twitter.com/IamMrHaas/status/976791277856608258

....I wonder when these will be published??? Last couple of years they had been released by now - my suspicion is that as they don't have to be released until 30th June we will have to wait until much nearer that time, when we will also find out how TSTR will be paying back it's $3m+ of debt (which is also due by then).

Krispy, you see them as unfavourable I see them as realistically laying out the situation here. You're right, given my stated plans to exit, I should be ramping the hell out of this share - if I do this will that make you happier? Perversely I am quite pleased that Odey have introduced a hard date of this June for TSTR loans repayment as this will mean there should be no long lingering wondering what's going on - all should become much clearer in the next three months (though after today's RNS I don't expect the commissioning $2m to be paid in time to help). If things don't go the way I fear - and you all still hope / believe - I may revise my position, though all it's likely to mean is that my exit point is at a higher level, I will not be here for dividends in 2022 regardless.

SirGB, in the Project section of both of todays RNS the gold capacity is stated as 50,000 not 60,000 and neither mention 60,000 anywhere.

My point was more about a lack of faith in production starting in June rather than saying construction rate was bad - I fully expect them to miss this latest stated timetable (as previous ones have proven to be unreliable).

Wassatt, I do intend to sell once there is a decent, sustained, rise this is no longer a sensible long term investment awaiting (small) Dividends in 2022.

10,000oz of gold capacity?? $70m of SPMP debt (of which a good chunk has been rolling up) at 15% means there is quite a lot to pay off before any profits are declared. As this debt is for SPMP it doesn't help TSTR with their own problem (to me that would've been a better RNS). Also progress towards plant completion seems quite slow (16% in 2 months) at this rate they'll complete the plant by June, ready for Commissioning not Production.

Tease!! Any further clues / hints??

Taskmaster, problem is it is in the nebulous potential 'jam tomorrow' category rather than something actual and concrete....

Guzbod, the only 'protection' we might have (and even this is limited and relies upon their being some level of honour) is that anything that may happen will not cause the 2 Odey nominated directors (Scott Morrison and Karen O'Mahoney) to be out of pocket....

....in connection with Odey getting to 75%, this would give them the option of delisting the company without necessarily any recourse to the minority holders (I've checked the AIM rules and it all seems possible).... http://www.theqca.com/information-centre/markets/1441/delisting-from-aim-issues-arising.thtml Thoughts???

Hi Fred, I'm calm - looking forward to feedback from those that are attending the Investor events on the 28th (otherwise not expecting any news anytime soon - as NR himself said '...it'll come when it comes...').