Member Info for fatherelmer

In response to one of the known shorters / rabble rousers Neill has tweeted a picture of a Chinese Patent Certificate covering the production process for Nanene..... https://twitter.com/neillricketts/status/978589224713801728

Another great RNS today (the 3rd in Aerospace plus also the work that Total Carbide are doing in the sector too). Though I guess the thing that everyone has to remember about all these collaborations is that: a) nothing may come of them (though in the short term VRS may get some revenue) b) that they'll probably take at least 1 year (if not 2 or 3) to produce anything meaningful / reach some form of commercial product / output

I never said there would be no dividends just that they would be both smaller, and later, than you would otherwise believe if you read most posts on here. As for being taken private I do believe this to be a significant short term risk, and something the recent TSTR financial arrangements have been designed to potentially facilitate. In which case I don't think we'll be wiped out completely - my guess is a floor of 0.0448 which is Karen O'Mahonys b/e price. Once in production, as I said in another posting below, I do expect SP growth (assuming we all still own shares). So why haven't I sold - weighing up the short term risks vs longer term potential as production nears I hope the SP increases so that if the risk materialises the take out price limits any downside. As I've said several times today if the risk dissipates I will review my position, though even if it does, due to the dilution I no longer see this as an income share, only capital growth.

I'm still here, and took part in the OO, because I do believe in the OAR project and believe it could indeed grow into great things. My issue is not with SPMP but with the financial arrangements of TSTR over the last 12 months, and to me this is where the risk is, and also where the income potential has changed (due to the massive dilution) hence my change in view of the investment potential.

Wassatt, I agree once the OAR is, finally, in production things will change as the uncertainty will start to fall away and the SP 'should' recover. My only concern is whether or not the PIs get to share in this phase of it's operation, hence reviewing my position in 3 months time.

Wassatt, as per the OO RNS of December 2017 even after applying the OO proceeds $740,000 of the original loan was to remain outstanding, subsequently they have raised another $2.8m of Loan Notes (the January 2018 RNS) so $3.5m in total before applicable interest and fees. As the January RNS, in respect of the additional $2.8m, was unclear as to where the money may actually have come from, and where the funds from the OO have been applied, the actual amount owing could be higher than this $3.5m figure. As for the $2m due upon Commissioning if this does arrive in time, and I don't think it will as from the February 2016 RNS the plant was supposed to be in production from ca. September 2017 and has now slipped at least twice, this would help but probably leaves ca. $2m (once fees, interest etc are included) to find.

Made an error in my response below - I forgot last weeks RNS SPMP owes the Bank $70m (plus rolled up interest) and not $40m as stated.

Wassatt, I have an exit figure in mind, but we are not there yet - my focus for the moment is the next 3 months as to me this is the period that contains the material risk, after that I'll review again.

I never said Finals were late - I realise they have until 30th June to publish them - my question was I wondered whether they would be held back (until as late as possible) to be released at a similar time as the paying off the Secured Loan Notes to Odey was resolved. I'm sorry if my posts challenge the orthodoxy of this board - that all is rosy and we will all be (multi) millionaires as soon as the OAR fires up, I just (obviously) see things differently and was trying to have a meaningful debate and would love to be proved wrong. Your posts are as much speculation as mine. I have also stated my longer term intentions for this share and I'll sell when I choose thanks very much.

Somebody is being very grumpy because they don't like facts and logic - SPMP have stated Dividends will not be payable until the end of 2019, this means they will be paid in 2020. As these will be paid to TSTR (and not directly to PIs) and TSTR year end is the same as SPMP, the earliest they could declare a Dividend (due to PI's) is after the 2020 H1 results are out so not before July 2020, though I suspect that actually not before the end of the 2020 Financial Year and so some time in 2021.

SPMP owes the Bank $40m (plus rolled up interest) interest rate unknown SPMP owes TSTR $8.8m (plus rolled up interest) for the Mezzanine Loan - as a Mezzanine Loan this is Secondary to the Primary Bank Debt. SPMP owes the other Partners $13.2m (plus rolled up interest) for their Mezzanine Loans. I would be surprised if the terms of the Mezzanine Loans from the other Partners differ from those from TSTR, but I don't know the detail. TSTR owes Odey an unclear amount, but at least $3m, for the Secured Loan Notes (repayable by 30th June) that underpin the $8.8m of Mezzanine Loan they have in turn lent to SPMP. Why is the amount of Secured Loan Notes to Odey unclear - well the OO was to clear most, but not all, of the original $6m and subsequent to that they then secured a further $2.8m for the additional Mezzanine Loan, there are also various charges, and interest at 25% pa, attached to these Loan Notes, so I'm fairly confident, though I don't know (and I don't think anyone else does either and would be glad to be proved wrong and given the detail) what the actual outstanding figure is but IMHO it is at least $3m. I agree that Odey have protected their investment - my fear (which may be unfounded) is that we (the PIs) lose out to the benefit of Odey, but given that the Secured Loan Notes are due by 30th June 2018 we shouldn't have long to wait to find out.

The Mezzanine Loan from TSTR to SPMP is at 15% (see the relevant RNS from November 2017 and January 2018) I don't know what the Senior Bank Debt ($40m) is at as you correctly point out that has not been stated, but whatever rate this is at it too has been rolling up. I understand your analogy about the SP being like the equity in a house, though you have no idea what may happen to the SP though hope (as we all do) that the model you propose comes to pass. As for the profits if you have the detail to back up your 20% margin claim that would be great, please share.

Wassatt, I'm not desperate (unless you count wanting the SP to improve markedly) though I will admit to being more of a 'half empty' type of person by nature, I just think it realistic to focus upon some of the serious short term issues of this share rather than only focusing upon any crumb of news that in any way may be spun as a positive (given that this project has been in the works for 3-4 years now). Whilst the recent RNS did indeed contain some good news (chiefly that all SPMP financing is now supposedly sorted, though I think we've also heard that before) they are running late and over budget, there is uncertainty over the actual economics of SPMP (can you provide an accurate estimate of the costs?) and there is major uncertainty over how TSTR are to repay loans they have outstanding, due within 3 months, when they have no income.

Wassatt, if the best we can hope for is harmony, then I'm afraid we are getting desperate!! As this is an internal TSTR matter, with no changes to SPMP shareholding or Directors I can't see them being too concerned if I'm honest.

JS74, but why would Odey choose to extend the payback period, what's in it for them??

Wassatt, it will indeed - if it arrives in time (as it's due upon Commissioning - I assume at the end of the process covering the entire plant).

My issue isn't with the Mezzanine Loans that TSTR have advanced to SPMP ($8.8m in total) but rather with the Secured Loan Notes that TSTR have with Odey to underpin them, and the fact that these Loan Notes MUST be repaid by 30th June 2018, with at least $3m still outstanding (even after accounting for the funds raised by the OO).

I didn't mix up revenues and profits, rather as no-one on here knows the cost structure of SPMP I said that IMHO any dividend that may be forthcoming from SPMP will be no more than 10-20% of the revenue they generate, and as such people should not assume all of this revenue will flow through to TSTR and ultimately their shareholders. Though I do accept there may be some interesting future accounting in relation to consolidating SPMP into TSTR.

What you say wrt to Odey, PIs and the OO is true, however in order for them to increase their holding by ca. 11% required them to buy up shares from other previous holders rather than just hoovering up spare OO shares. So the question is who sold out to Odey as part of the OO (the Eyi family)??

So have CAAZ finally approved fastjets plans for BUQ and elsewhere then (and when will these routes commence)??