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Late rally ??

I do wonder what the SP would have been if Bondholders hadn’t cashed in ? They’ve acted as a kind of Shorter. But then they’re gonna get some more Bond opportunities as part of the Re Set of Copl. It’s a Master Plan. Punch and Judy.

(That was response to Duster). Obvs.

The Liquidity Covenant Waiver Expires 14 March. ART wants to keep SP low at 6p as long as possible for our Cornerstone Investors. The longer it goes / The more 6p seems normal. Or to put it frankly / An acceptable level given the circumstances for Financiers to take their piece of the pie in exchange for cash.
Let’s go through the scenario.

16p 13p 16p. Boom down to 6p. First you get Hysteria. Second you get Confusion. Third you get Acceptance. Takes time to Accept. So ART will use as much time as possible / However any possible good News re GC on 14/15 March - I will be surprised ie Removal of GC. I think he will drag it out as instructed by those who have the money ready.

No chance Duster. Going Concern update First on 14/15 March. Tbf it’s First time ART has provided a strict Timeline to which we can judge him. All part of the Master Plan ?

Go on Fish. Hang on in there.

Simply put.

Cornerstone Investor and or JV Investor already fully “Knows what we have”.
They (1 or both) will have to monetise any FDP.
When the money (£50/£100m) is on the table, you want the Biggest Return for your money to de risk the Investment.
Why would Cornerstone Investors allow Copl to slip into “Going Concern” mode for 1 or 2 months ??
Ans ; Because that’s Copl America’s problem.
SP falls to 6p.
Stays at 6p for a given length of time - The longer SP cont at 6p the more Validation the Cornerstone Investor gets for buying a Share of Ownership on the cheap. Again / Not their problem. It is Copl America’s problem.
Money comes in. Development materialises. Asset understood and proven. SP rises and then Cornerstone Investor Sells bit by bit and ultimately gets left with a % Ownership which hasn’t cost them anything. Punch and Judy show.

Or it could all go tits.

Low SP until 14/15 March. Continued low SP until ART releases concrete FDP. Imo. I will see how it plays out. I’ve made my opinion clear about what’s going on. I will either be right or wrong next 12 month.

GLA.

HH. Think about it. If Cornerstone Investor is ready to monetise these Assets and in JV High Production / or go it alone but with Farm ins to get to 5/10/15bopd / then they would want to put the cash in and own a Share of the Company for Cheapest Price possible wouldn’t they ??
Well - Here we are. It happened ….
The RNS was very poor and Cornerstone Investor could have funded Copl through this period to avoid “Going Concern”. They decided Not to. Now they have a cheaper SP in which to re structure their own Share ownership %.

The money will be down on the table if ART has told the Truth about “What we have”.

Ohh I certainly agree with you Hindhead. What I see as possibility is Full T/O at 10/20p Range and at same time Copl move on to another Venture.
ART MUST have told the Truth re FED Deep stating “Too Big for us to Develop on our own”. And “Biggest find of his career”. So why would Interested Party keep ART ? They wouldn’t. He would be told to move on and here try this other Play. That’s how it works.

Hopefully you see my description of i3 as being accurate and remember how it felt when they threw £10m away with the famous drilling on the “Boundary”… In hindsight, it wasn’t the bod making the Calls / It was the Cornerstone Investor calling the shots and pushing the Risk. That’s why they refunded them and massively so. Again / They always use PI money as they always have a head start re results and risk and that’s the way it is.

I3e are Producing well. And that was how a Post I made yday was referring to. The Market looses patience and ultimately only Values Production.

If ART is telling 25% Truth about “What we have”. Then COPL on their own should be able to activate a FDP for 10/15.000bopd.

Needs funding / Just like i3 needed. All about the Cornerstone Investor and they do know “What we have”.

So we shall see.

Now … Copl SP is going (Gone) exactly same way as i3e. Future Success in SP and forLTH’s depends purely on ART’s interpretation of “What we have” as being the Truth.
Hells Teeth.. I’d take 50% of what he has said re “What we have” as being the Truth.
And I’d probably take less.
I suspect (Disagree if you wish) that the “Going Concern” was engineered in agreement with the Cornerstone Investor to leverage PI cash. Because !!!!! The shocker RNS 1 Feb could have been avoided / when you consider what happened at i3e. If monetising Copl Assets is very close (Countdown 12 month), then whose advantage would it be for a SP to be at subsistence level ??

And that’s how I see this as being played if I was a fly on the wall party to all that was going off. The Truth ?? Would love to know / but all I can do is try and think what’s going off here and compare to past history elsewhere and how that’s played out.

I was in i3energy. Absolute Con men. Just same as ART. They just Salesmen to PI to use PI Investments as leverage for those higher up the chain.

Now … i3e had literally nothing. They’d just drilled 3 times and hit dusters. 1 of the drills at Serenity was said to hold 200mbo (Not all recoverable) and eventually it turned into a duster after Appraisal drill proved the 200mbo no where near.

Their Cornerstone Investor funded them after SP Crash about £70m. They bought 2 Canadian Oilers (1 was going Bankrupt and was the CFO’s brother !!! (Who is now on bod of i3). SP was 6p (Everyone Invested 20p to 50p). From desperation they bought and developed the low hanging fruit and within 1 yr 20.000bopd (But some is low grade oil). All of the 20.000 has to be sold at a discount to WTI (10/15%). SP went to 24p (Now 20p). Market Cap £235m??

Why am I sharing this ???

This all happened during Pandemic when oil price was Zero !! They moved from Offshore (High Capex) to Onshore (Lower Capex). They had No money. They had No production after 3 years of failed promises to begin producing . Cornerstone started a fresh. Injected £70m to gain 10.000bopd with potential to double. Carried over Debt of £25m ? (I’d have to check). Reserve life 7 years ?? It 4 Bagged from 6p to 24p. They’ve since allowed farm ins for various production.

Compare to Copl. Already Onshore. Plenty of low hanging fruit. 40 years Reserve life. No Pandemic distress for Financiers. Already Producing (Only 1500bopd - but we are Producing). I fail to believe Copl are in a worse position than i3 were.

Let’s hope ART is a Canny Fox. He is Expert Planner. I do believe.

Good Post Tilburn. I knew of a UK Company AIM listed (Not Oil Market) that secured £125m when they were absolutely dire and ultimately slipped into Going Concern and then Insolvent. So I cannot understand how if a FDP can be constructed (JV or not) and they absolutely can / then US Financiers should be queuing up to Lend here.
However ; Going Concern means No Money until lifted. No Financial Institution would fund any Venture under this Tag. Strict Policy.

Whether I Win or Loose on this one / I am interested to see how it plays out. Contrary to what you say / I believe Art is an Expert Planner. But he just don’t tell the Truth to Shareholders (PI).

(In the End) He is a Canny Fox I hope !!

Well. I got in here at 123p but Liberium just threw a curve ball in there.

Hmmm. Surprised this is now Testing my 61p purchase. But will add more sub 60p if that how it has to be. All the THG Distribution Centres right next to Manchester Airport. This is Globaland infrastructure set up perfect.

Good Point that 1509. I agree.

First base will be RNS 14/15 March. Art laid out his Short Term Timeline which was good move. I don’t expect Going Concern to be removed altogether at that point. I do expect an immediate self sufficient Financial Plan on the 14/15th to be communicated to get us out of Going Concern by some point in Q2.
Regards the JV and RBL / I have no confidence either of these will happen Q1/Q2. We may see some Short Term cash injection (Dilution - but should turn out accretive) to de risk the Fed Deep before (if) the Big one comes (2024). Just what I believe (Realistic).

Simmo. Please consider it only takes 20 of “ART’s mates” as you say Town 2.99% and le viola. It would not happen as exactly like that but could do to some degree. They know the numbers. Insider Trading is rife in Oil. I’ve known it before when they are Drilling and they are literally on the dog and bone to the Market Makers hours before RNS.

The current likely hood of any Production Increase if things remain as is = Zero. That’s why we are 5/6p.

Stas. Sometimes on here very hard to get point across. At moment we cannot increase Production as Copl Going Concern and Senior Lender says it all. Of course if JV signed then SP goes North because Near Term Inc in Production almost guaranteed / or at least de risked. I know … Say what you mean. I should have been more descriptive.