RE: faramog16 Sep 2021 11:53
@Lucan .... what do I expect .. 35-45...
We always knew at the start of the year, it would all be about H2. It was perfectly clear that Eskom would be delayed again and again and finally come to some actual decisions and commitments in H2 (not least because the world bank is getting fed up and there were whispers about pulling the money). But also, because internally, Gwede's rear guard dinosaur action would eventually loose to common sense.
What no one could have seen coming was the extension to 100MW for self gen (instead of the expected 10MW). Ultimately in 2022 this will start to feed into a surging flow of orders in storage of which Bushveld will be one beneficiary
The Electrolyte plant has always been clearly timed to Eskom initial point so in essence we were never going to see product shifting until mid 22 anyway. This has in some ways I personally feel acted as a drag on the SP and one reason for the down-drift and languishing - it was all 18 months+ away.
H2 we expected to be good in terms of production not least because of the maintenance & refurb. There is solid mood music on Q3 numbers and FM has been adamant that forward guidance will be numbers we could 'take to the bank' - markets like a level of accuracy and beating the guidance is fine.
Large numbers of storage projects are now accelerating and the spotlight will come around. If Q3 is good, realistic expectation of Q4 good and the forward picture of H1 in 22 solid, strong VFRB industry news I see no reason why a bit of glow of that spotlight would not uplift 3-4x .. happens all the time.
May not happen of course and we get the SP uplift into next year ... so what. But if Q3 numbers are as good as we get hints, Q4 looks solid, strong storage news in general, Eskom coming to an actual order point, the start of private VFRB 10-100MW units starts to roll, then only a fool would not consider the company with amongst the best worldwide reserves, 2 of the 4 main processing plants, an electrolyte plant in construction, significant holdings in 2 VFRB box pushers, a Rental company, a plan and funding to increase production 50% over the next 12 months (etc etc) would somehow not be seen as strong bet.
SP prediction is a guess on AIM and is highly sentiment driven (which is why chartists and elliot watchers are so consistently wrong).
As for the comments on the £1 party .... well... I would not bet that is not achieved in the not so distant future
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