RE: My notes on the conference call, 31-01-233 Feb 2023 14:37
and mine ..
Overall, a very positive RNS in a very challenging year. The Vametco figures are fantastic and the load-shedding issues impacting Vanchem are being mitigated.
The drop today is way overblown and the outlook for a lot of growth this year is perfectly clear.
So at least 200mtv lost in H2 (at Vanchem) due to load shedding. But already have some agreements in place with the municipality to curtail impact. These will develop through Q1 and expect production impact to be very much lower from Q2 with run rates in the 2,500-2,600 range
The initial target range for the year is 4,200-4,500 mtv due to load shedding, but run rates of 5,000-5,400. So given the agreements to curtailment, the impact of the mini-grid at Vametco, the guidance is a conservative figure that will very probably be exceeded
Large scale Capex no over, just sustaining capital needs of around $9m
Rand is weakening and the outlook worsening. This increases margins as most sales are in USD and costs in Rand
The world macro-economics support solid Vanadium pricing and price growth and that is before the impact of #VRFB. It is a reasonable assumption that overall prices will rise. Also, over 70% of Vametco's output is higher value Nitrovan to the USA
Load shedding is a national issue but mitigations started in December and the effects will be reduced at Vancem as curtailment agreements kick in.
Confident that an agrement with orion on restructure of the debt will take place (of course they might just pay some/all of it off anyway) - I see this as a done deal. orion have a long history of support and so long as there is good cash generation, it is not in their interests to not re-finance
2022 sales lagged production due to international logistics issues, but expect the reverse this year with more sales than production (selling down the 250mtv extra inventory)
No space at Vanchem for a mini-grid, but there is land nearby and exploring options
Some questions about BE. FM was candid that progress has been obscured by the mining operation but all the elements were now in place.
Also on Garnet post court action - the words were 'civil working relationship'. Interesting comment on the other relationships with there will be an update as and when