Member Info for faramog

mmmhhh ... they seem to have taken it down "!!!

I know all that ... useful summary for others though

You miss the point @Lindon.... you are saying it will take more than 3x longer to reach capacity than to build the plant. Ludicrous - it is all just scale

Believe what you want, but I see no reason a full capacity ramp would take more than a few months if the orders were there ..

no @Lindon.... they have not said it 'would take several years to reach nameplate capacity'. They said they currently see ramp up over several year.

After all, there is no point having the staff and operations to fund without a fairly sure flow through rate. Once commissioned, it would take months at most to reach full capacity if that was needed

Your 'disinformation' is a bit off !

PMSL @Arc ... 'we are proud yada yada'

That is funny man !!!

All broker forecasts are piffle (after all, they are so wildly different looking at the same data), but yes... I could see 6p to 18p... What they basically say is that anything above $35 (actually rather less) is pretty much gross profit ... ever $1 is essentially approx $5m of gross margin

The growth of VRFB along with China Vanadium restrictions (and tarrifs), the exclusion of Russian Vanadium means the supply is constrained into the USA (and to a less extent as its more leaky, Europe

Whilst I do not subscribe to a $60/kg+ bubble I do see it likely that a sustained price this year closer to $50 is probable in higher margin USA

Everything so far points to this year being very cash (and profit) generative. IMO, there is absolutely no reason to be concerned about Orion. The current stock pile and cash in hand more than cover it. I have long suspected FM wants to demonstrate this as a means of guarantee to extend terms. I have long thought that 50-70% will be paid off and the rest over the following year or two with the same terms (10% interest). The CLN strike price is 17p and every reason if nothing else to see the SP drift up to that by Sept

The sear number of power & storage projects in plan in SA is enormous. The current muse of ramping Bleco from a small output to max flow over 'several' years is just laughable. I suspect it will be full flow by the middle of next year and plans for output expansion will start to be firmed up

Nothing in the ether whispers says that Q1 was not a good quarter. It is typically lower due to a lot of maintenance, but that was done last year

..... now if only those red beret nutters would calm down for a bit and Ramaphosa stop goading the USA over Putin...

@OilyR .. there is a telegram group posting lots of news from all over SA as it happens ..

****/ZA_future_of_the_West (*************ZA_future_of_the_West)

oh dear .. poor ARC .. bless .... why would I do that

I meant Eatstocks ... but if you cannot get a quote for 30k shares ...

to sell or buy ?

You forgot DD ... and manage comms ...

To be fair, FM is keeping it simple now ....

no @Arc .. we are not valued as an explorer .. that was 4 years ago !!

No it won't HC... Much, if not all the debt will be repaid

yes .. but as the amount likely to be made this year will need perhaps a little over 100mtv ... its not a problem

yes PR has remained pretty poor .. almost a deliberate 'under the radar' approach

In Feb last year I emailed the company about it and had this reply ..

As it turns out, we're finalising our approach and framework for disseminating information through different platforms, channels and medium, besides RNS. This includes an internal timetable/frequency for the different platforms.


-----------------------
Some of the key topics we will be aiming to cover in the communication include:

Market information, to reinforce the investment thesis

Vanadium prices movements
Demand side - driven by steel and growing energy demand
Supply side numbers, including co-producers and primary producers.
Steel/ Iron ore/ price movements
Market structure and structural deficit story

Updates on developments in the energy and BESS markets and VRFB battery developments, including new deployments.
Updates on Belco/ plant construction and Cellcube battery progress, including access to latest high resolution photos

Key events and conferences in which our exces are participating and their reposts
Topical news items

------------

I read into this that a rather more active and pro-active approach would be taken and whilst true that the number of tweets has gone up, they are generally fairly dray and not that frequent

So I guess we are still waiting for it all to really kick off

Thanks Paludina .. not sure why I forgot that ... I had it in my head it was a lot purer

All depends on assumptions:

- All-In costs (ie operational + planned maintenance) I expect to be circa $28-$29 for Vametco and $31-$32 for Vanchem

- Vametco is only 74% owned .. 26% is 'given away' as part of re-distrubution

- Vanchem is 100% owned. This is why any expansion is more likely there as all profit is retained. At Vametco 100% is invested for 74% of the gain

- Average price is already above $42 and for the USA is mostly Nitrovan with an additional (far too low) premium of 5% so around $48 (I believe currently). In addition, there are high value vanadium chemicals that attract a higher margin

- The RNS outlook points to Ferrovanadium pricing. FV is a max of 85% vanadium, Nitrovan is almost 100%. The net effect is that actual pricing is higher than what looks like the spot rate

And this ignores the (admittedly this year) small premium gained from electrolyte sales I expect from the end of Q3... All in all, a very profitable and cash positive year this will be

The run-rate is already over 5,000 mtv pa and not 4,000 according to the last data..... Depending on strikes, load-shedding impact etc I rather expect that to be made

@HC .. costs at Vanchem are $3-$4 per KG higher... but also they make higher value products so the overal margin is also a bit higher

@KnutsfordN ... that would be gross margin then .... there are internal expenses, licence fees and taxes

One of the historic grey areas is whether some (or all) of these have been lumped into the All In Costs (in the past it has varied).

Personally, I prefer to look in Bushy's case at gross margin (Sales less operating costs). Net profit is just a slice on a non-linear scale of the difference

But I rather overall agree that Gross Margin should be in the range $75-$95m this year as a base line with a net profit around a third of that

Very healthy !