Member Info for faramog

I am sure you know 4-8 is tough... my lass had a very rough time.. RKs lass having it tough and there are others.. you will get through @Pdub ... all the best.... and get the guitar !!... I did see a lovely old set of pipes but OC Domestic said no :-(

Feels like we are just treading water

SA feed going to run out.... really.. unless they assume bushveld will get bought out by China (or Saudi) .... there are decades of ore

pure class Ophidian .... :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSACOcLqW0c

We shall see Alfa... but keeping it all in house makes bushveld minerals carry the risk of the energy market...

In the automotive world when a veh leaves the factory (ie physically moves through the gate), there is immediate payment due from a holding company that takes ownership. They transport and 'sell' it on to end users or garages taking a small fee covering the debt finance and costs. (The manufacturers would go bust very quickly otherwise given the astronomic cash flows).

I would see a similar thing. A wholly owned subsidiary (that could be BE !! or somewhere that has a convenient tax advantage) then has a debt facility. Pays market rate to Bushveld for the vanadium and then converts to electrolyte and leases on: up front fee followed by annual rental covering the cost of the debt finance and a profit, holding a depreciating residual value on the books.

I never did the commercial side in veh manufacture, but this is the basic structure that was explained to me and the only time I know it when wrong is when a chinese harbour blew up with several 100M quids worth of European cars. Chinese refused to pay and the manufacturers were told to stump up or what their finance structure collapse ... (and people say Trump is being unfair to China LOL).

I suspect NickD would have a clearer handle on possible accounting wheezes to make this all happen smoothly - all very tried and working models.

Tongue in cheek I do hope it is better than the dividend policy :-)

Alfa .. yes .... interesting.... my rusty cogs just went .. say 5,000 TV pa for 20 years with a residual value of 20 quid is 2B in asset ... of course rapidly we will have 10,000 T into Electrolyte pa and more and if the RP is somewhat higher, the net asset value could easily end up closer to 5B...... and all costs already taken off from the leasing return.

jeez ... kerching (although frankly in 20 years I probably will not care)

Great post BBN ... nail on the head. Its about the legals and risk apportionment.

Only thing I am slightly confused about is getting over the long term vanadium price instability in determining residual value. I spoke with Alfa a while back and part of the solution seemed to be a futures market for Vanadium .... I know nothing of such instruments but any views would be interesting to hear.

no exclusivity... so does not matter... if upset sort an agreement out as well

how do you know they are calling large holders ?

Pdub .. I did not misrepresent you. If you felt my comment was having a go at you then I was not.

allthatguff - started the thread talking about ANC infighting, the Halespur equates the pound to the chaos, then knutsfordnotary tries to lighten in up.

I don't recall you posting on this thread before I said anything !!

You are not the only view. I have no idea on what contacts you have in SA, I have some friends and get a rather different picture although they are a lot more positive than they used to be.

Anyone ... anyone at all thinking SA has actually turned that corner yet needs to look at the facts. I very much think Ramaphosa will do it - the first competent president since Mandela .. but SA is a high risk place to invest and one of the key reasons (I think) the SP is still depressed

But each to their own.

dont worry... all milt and honey in SA... Ramaphosa has a mandate yada yada yada

I am very upbeat about bushveld having holdings knocking on 4m..... but until Ramaphosa gets full anc control the progress is problematic.

The article is quite negative .. but non the less.. Ramaphosa reforms are slow....

But when (not if) he gets a full grip I would expect significant change in short order. Only have to look at how internationally investors view view SA.. the $100B is currently a trickle

a good point Alfa... I had forgotten the collective total.... but around half that now (assuming no one sold of course) ... and will dilute down to an effective total of what.. 7-10%.

hang fire .. agree with you ref the dilution. I only have a small ATM holding right now. Not going to buy in a large chunk until after the dilution.

Currently what .. circa 500M shares.. I rather expect somewhat more than 1B in the end... would not surprise me if it was close to 1.3 or 1.4B unless they can secure some long term debt financing which is a possibility.

As for that Bushveld share being 10% .. it will likely end up at 3-4% .... not been a great spin off for Bushveld Investors really

@Pdub .. really commenting on the geopolitical situation between Namibia & SA... not on the fact that Bushy is generating oodles of cash and has a very compelling future story...

It does rather de-risk when the Vanchem deal goes though and Mokopane licence will certainly help. But SA, remains a very risky place right now and people do seem to have rose coloured specs on about it

I think so ... comment was about Afritin being risky as it is not yet producing. Whilst true, the pilot is about to come online and my view of the risk has rather more to do with the political stability of Namibia and the relative cost of building a full scale plant when looking at the significant amount of Tantelite available: a rare earth mineral that is essential in the every growing electrification of the world, so irrespective of tin pricing, profitability seems a very decent bet right now.

SA is still a risky place, Ramaphosa still has yet to gain complete ANC control, there is still wide scale corruption and the unrest among the 'have-nots' is high - it is a high risk economy to invest in still

no real link to the document .. but the tweet is:

https://twitter.com/airic101/status/1135992859796987904

terrific video interview. FM was very relaxed . Lots of very probing questions and very clear idea of the forward vision - some of the numbers are just mind blowing

@Kevwal - I see Afritin as less risky.

1. - it is in a highly stable country (Namibia)
2. The cost of building plant to full production is relatively low (not the 300M+ for a new Vanadium plant but 20-30M
3. The ore carries a significant Tantelite element that has very considerable value and is a growing demand (irrespective of tin demand).

Whilst a 10-bagger is nice, lets not forget there is a very significant dilution coming to fund the full plant (but in a similar way that Bushveld unlocked its value by dilution I would hope the same be true). I do hope they minimise of stay away from warrants as we know they just act as a drag.

I do see very considerable upside for rather less risk than Bushveld currently has

gggrrr.... I carefully read what I posted.. I am sure my phone app must strip some characters randomly

sorry peepz... hope the sentiment was clear