Member Info for faramog

@Chish - Although a bit tongue in cheek (sorry if I misread the sentiment), you raise an interesting debating point: what does 'priced in mean ?'

I think it is fairly fair to say anything in the F250 has sentiment & news fairly priced in (give or take), a bit less so for the next 100 (F350) and less in All-share, and practically nothing in AIM.

AIM is highly sentiment driven and (as we know) highly manipulated.

I am personally not sure I expect a big re-rate on the Vanchem deal, but I do expect a jump, but not so much for the enhanced volume, but rather the de-risking made by one production site. What I do think will rather drive us more is formally reported trading and profit figures (perhaps the H1 rns will give good detail), the expectation of a dividend (not earlier than Aug next year I personally feel), and the view that Ramaphosa is winning against the marxists making SA more stable and business friendly. Right now, Ramaphosa is making fairy-steps and is a long way from his vision of $100B inward investment.

While we all agree that Bushy should be worth a heck of a lot more right now, that does rather ignore the perceptions around the SA politic and the fact that so far we have not delivered anything in BE/Electrolyte (end of the year so long as the plant is commissioned on time). Also, some missed production expansion numbers, missed commitments and re-rate down of Vanadium pricing..

So to say on Vanchem a 30% move to 30-35p prices that in and a drop back to mid 20's takes that out rather misses how the AIM market SP is perhaps determined in AIM .... sentiment and actual profit numbers rather seem to be the key drivers.

But a very interesting topic of conversation ! What a change from troll-bashing.

great posts Ophidian .. nice to hear from you again

bye bye inimitable ...... I am sure I was not alone reporting

on 1st July it was just under 60 days to sell ... now 70 days .... There cannot be anywhere enough coming in to be loaned out

@Bella6532 - 'I’ve also read that vanadium flow batteries already cost well below $500/kWh – and that some hope to see $150/kWh by 2020"

Just remember that when LiIo systems get quoted on LTC/KWH they use total capacity, but in reality reducing a LiIo battery below 20% degrades it and below 10% can cause irreversible damage. Similary, charging much above 80% regularly can degrade performance. While I was in Switzerland last week I seem to recall Alfa pointing out the LTC/KWh should be multiplied by 167% to get a real cost of ownership for LiIo.

While VFRB can be drawn down to (practically 0%) there is no degradation... the cost/kwh (nameplate capacity) is what you can get.

BBN's earlier post on the Dalian system is very exciting - like him, I cannot believe they do not have the initial phase fully costed through and pre-purchase agreements in place... a real step forward ... wonder where they will get the electrolyte. I vaguely recall a plant coming into operation later this years somewhere ;-)

Regulatory red tape and licences are the key issue. A deal is not done until it is signed, so whilst I have great confidence, I am not at all optimistic the deal will be signed 31st July.

Ramaphosa has certainly had impact, but is fighting large marxist internal elements in the ANC. He actually needs a really big win to seal him - Eskom being one such possibility.

I just spent the last 2 weeks in Europe at an event with some friends from Cape Town. They are optimistic about Ramaphosa, but very much of the opinion that his goodwill capital is ebbing away. They rather agreed that until the massess see obvious green shoots of change and betterment, this will continue.... now VFRB, renewable's and Eskom will make an impact, but only mid term (18-24 months is the feeling).

Personally I will be delighted if we get an RNS a week on Thursday saying Vanchem is done, but not at all sure it will happen that quick.

excellent news Pdub ..

vanchem is aimed for 31 july .. or .. by 31 oct if I remember correctly.... depending on the regulatory hurdles... but a delay would not be in keeping with Ramaphosas sunrise strategy

a good point Sanchez !!

carpfisher .. I doubt it ... the ISA rules are HMRC laid out. I would check that fact. I know there has been some discussion about in-tax-year removal and replacement but as I understand it that is not in place with HMRC yet.

Be very happy if that is incorrect mind !

Pdub... I dont think a divi was ever on the cards to be paid this year. It was just the policy. Whilst I rather agree that priorities change they twice announced and twice delayed then in the end gave a statement of the obvious. A pointless a d needless delay. The real lesson is do what you say and if there is a delay then fine but not something so trivial.

Personally divs can wait... there is so much to unlock needing capital.... I do suspect we are really in agreement

Canute40 - there is no dividend policy statement due .. after all that fannying about and missing deadlines they said 'we will review what free cash we have on an annual basis' ... or effectively words to the effect.

Nothing else is coming

a very good point ... not thought of it like that !

Just gives the BoD the power to do so if they want. Between resolutions 9 & 10 they can pretty much issue, cancel, convert buy back or do anything they want if they so desire.

I am not in favour of a buyback .. far more important things to invest the cash in right now: Vametco expansion, Brits development, Mokopane Development, Vanchem purchase, Lemur, Bushveld Energy.

A swift kick in the tads to the shorters would be hugely moral boosting for a week before they were back .. build the revenue streams. Then the lazy Bolly-swigging city slicker's may well finally take notice

@Hamill23 .. that is the best one-liner today .. very funny :-)

give it a rest Sanchez ... Goodwill describe intangibles. Since the plant (asset) is still in construction, its value is limited. I know of no other actual assets - do you ? .. do I care ?

Well Sanchez, IP is wrong.. should have said 'Goodwill' After all, even less has been delivered than RED ! ... but its getting mighty close to an electrolyte plan coming to production :-)

part 2 crossed ... 8.8p !! ... I must be do-la as I recall the previous value of 0.1p and with an 87p target, 90p makes a difference of 3p ... then there is the 7.9p of 'other' stuff

Oh well ... while we are 3.5x below this it is rather arbitrary !

a whole 3p of value for BE ... be careful now ..don't be hasty LOL

Humour aside, BE has yet to deliver anything so actually, starting to recognise the IP is a good positive thing. Interesting on the Vanadium pricing. Much buffooned last year over pricing but proved remarkably correct. What I would really like to here is some detailed take on the deficit and why a structural deficit, with no/limited stocks does not inflate a non-hedged commodity spot price

I agree Alfa .. like all renewable's, there are enormous inefficiencies.. but it is an alternate view and when looking at solar arrays of the size given, who knows... a small system might just be feasible.

I do not subscribe to the view it is free energy. The cost is carried over the lifetime as you well know doing capex calcs. The fact (very clearly) is it would be un-viable in the UK/Developed world, but that might not be the case in the early stages of Africa-Energy development. I suspect, absolute efficiency is rather less important when even a small amount of energy can light a classroom into the evening - the real key to development is education and the key enabler is power (even if it is less efficiently made) .... just a muse really .. please no one shoot.... Most of rural Africa is effectively a 'whiteboard' looking for even a basic staring solution