RE: Eskom BESS tender3 Jul 2020 18:54
I think @Bassguy your numbers are a little on the large side. Also, as was pointed out in the Vanitec webinar the best recycling of Electrolyte is re-conditioning to more electrolyte. Recovery estimated between $1.5-$3.0/lb ... so even optimised perhaps a max of $10/kg in residual value. Remember that value represents the post recovery value (essentially profit).
So in a 10 year model, selling at $50/kg, residual of $10/kg, that $40 would be depreciated over 10 years. Lots of models but assume linear, so $4/kg pa. On top of that a charge (you say) of 8% would be possibly levied. This would be against the original $50, so another $4/kg. So it is reasonable at a really basic level to assume that an end user will pay $8/kg/year + an initial fee. That equates to $80/kg + fee over 10 years. That equates to an annualised return of just under 5% on the original $50/kg (not dazzling). I would have thought a 12% rate more likely (giving around 8.1% pa) and the capital part returning to the finance company with the 'interest' split - who knows: 30/70 ? but probably lower).
I think it would be madness to try and finance the lot (and very risky) - which is why the automotive land who sell veh leasing in the many 10's of billions don't do that and spread the load and share the reward.
I would be delighted if vast future revenue streams pour in, but can't see that happening. Sale of Vanadium by Bushveld to BE at Market (or some agreed price structure)- BE sell Electrolyte to individuals or a Leasing Company, getting a portion of the interest/profit stream is how I see it working ... still very accumulative !
I could not arrive at your $906M figure at all for 8,400 MTV and it is naive to think the vanadium is recovered to the same value - as was discussed on monday, it is not quite as straightforward or environmentally straightforward as is made out.
The Capital value between initial sale and recovered residual will be collected by the financing company (just like a mortgage or loan). The profit on the interest payments will be split with a small part going back to BE ... that is my guess.
But we will see !
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