Member Info for faramog

Sorry Sanchez ... long thread and when typing in I just wrote your name .... sorry you got tarred a little - my mistake

no .. listen to the interview .. actually said (as I wrote it down as he said it):

"we have Cash $35M and a 375M rand debt facility "...... around $20M when you do the convert

Thanks KnutsfordN .. no I can't - I checked as she had them in an ISA. Only right of direct transfer is to my Dad (if he was alive). To realise the value for distribution the shares must be sold and cannot be transferred.

On the plus side, the normal process is for shares to be sold and money transferred. However, HL have agreed to transfer the shares to an 'Executor of' account and allow me to decide the timing. The legality of timing is a bit grey but I certainly have until the autumn if I choose so will see.

Sanchez .. we have 30M cash and 20M facility (as FM recently pointed out) .... that is an aweful lot of purchase power.

We do not need a dilution just to hold more cash

No DD ... I am not (except I have to sell my mothers holdings sometime soon as she is dead )

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I said last week that I am still of the opinion I had in January that we will end the year in the range 40-60p. Why... well, because by then we will have BE orders (at least Eskom). Anyone thinking this was not a done deal last year needs their head examining. Part of the deal was how much local content and Bushveld group are streets ahead as it all comes from SA barring the stack. Unemployment is such a SA issue, that it is just inconcievable a substantial order would not be placed. SA is not any where near as hampered by 'fair market' issues as we are and is free to make a strategic country decision.

As for future prospects, I still see a 3 digit SP in the next couple of years. AIM is highly sentiment driven and we can see all to clearly just how much a stock can move just on sentiment alone. Now a move off AIM and onto the main board will attract tracker and index funds. Start paying a dividend and suddenly the wider pension funds get really interested.

My investment horizon is the next 3-5 years. It is extremely irritating we languish with the SP where we are, but short of a move off AIM and soley onto JSE (not impossible but hardly the mark of a world-class eneregy provider), or the SA givernment deciding to steal (sorry nationalise) us, I see a very rosy future.

Just can the negatve waves peepz .. hold fast, butten it or sell up and go. The fundamentals have changed .. they get better daily and eventually that all catches up.

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Over 4 years ago I started to invest in Bushveld with a first purchase at 2.1p, but managed a nice chunk at 1.6p.

When I bought at 1.6p I knew there was upside. I hoped that 4-5p would be possible. Back then of course, Bushveld owned around 26% of Vametco and not a lot else.

As news came out and I started adding more I ended up with an average of 6p(ish). My outlook changed and I felt 10-15p was possible in 2-3 years (funny... thats about now and look where we are !).

Then the next big chess move hit and we were circa 56% with a lot more control. But ... the parlance state of the mine was found out and a costly upgrade plan started. Old mine management went, new management arrived. Union and old agreement issues resolved and then suddenly 74% and complete control of the cash flow. (I am not sure people realise what a big deal that is).

Now my view started to be in the range of 75p+ and not sold a single share at this point, just added ending up with circa 3.3M between my wife and myselfd and around 0.55M shares for my mum .... knocking on the door of 4m holding (exceeding when I finally bought a large tranche for my brother in April.

And now Vanchem is all but complete (just those warrants or whatever they are called in October)

We have no more maintenance planned this year - all done and although the guidance in the annual was a range UP TO 4,300 mtv in total, twice in two interviews in the last couple of weeks FM has said 4,300... barring production or grade issue it seems odds on and who knows, may even end up a bit more.

Next year add 1.1MTV (at least) and more the year after. In 3-4 years at current planned upgrades we will be knocking on 8,400MTV ... not far off 3x last years production (excluding the late addition of Vanchem). Whatever anyone thinks, that is very very profitable and would start paying decent dividends just selling into steel alone.

Do I regret not selling a tranche at 40p+. In hindsight, yes, and investors with more experience who saw other opportunities should not be lambasted here just for looking after themselves. I also remember the abuse one person got (Expert1021 ?) when he said his limit was 10% of his portfolio and after a lot of ra-ra he did then say he had increase that in this case.

Where will we be next year. Well for one thing, I cannot see us sitting where we are now. If we are, then we will have an effective PE of between 1.5 and 2 while making $50M+ in NET profit .. just ridiculous.... even on AIM !

Thanks for the context Ophidian... All the best chap

interesting doc ... and nothing in the BE bit speaks of anything outside of Africa finishing with ....

"The objective is to supply both electrolyte and VRFBs to South Africa and export to the rest of the African continent. "

Whether anyone stays invested, sells down, increases or stops posting is entirely their own business.

All those moaning that 'suddenly it has all gone quiet' vis-a-vis certain posters maybe should use the space to share their own pearls of wisdom, research and debating points ..... now lets see who has material to contribute to help fill the void !

@St0wski - If you read the annual report, there is a section on director ownership detailing what is a requirement of them to own. Some (newer) have deadlines to make up their ownership levels.

15 months ago... Now that was a really good call Ophidian.

Not having a pop by the way.

Good luck to you and always look forward to your thoughts

I though you bought back in Ophidian - some chart about to turn up in May or June... may be wrong

Good luck to you anyway

twat .. filtered

Thats easy... Move off aim to the main board... Automatically trackers buy in... When divs arrive... What the stampede from pension funds

When the SP was last above 30p China Vanadium was circa $40-$42 and Europe around $29 for Fev. The point is a bit mute as sentiment was downward as we know. (On the way up the Vanadium price was higher as there is a clear lag of V-price to SP movement).

My point is that Vanadium pricing is now starting to rise, there is a clear deficit and China will be a net importer this year driving prices up a bit. Whatever economic woes the world has post CV19 a massive infrastructure build will start to kick-start the economies. Ever more Vanadium will be needed. FM spoke the other day that a sweet spot range of $40-$50/kg worked for the steel and Battery industries.

So at $40, could we see 30p again ?

I think more as we are producing 40% more than the last time we were there. Just on cash flow and market dynamics an SP of 40-50 ought to be market sentiment sustainable as Vanadium prices rise.

Back in January, I thought there was a decent chance we will end this year somewhere between 40p-60p providing vanadium pricing keeps drifting up, and still do. At some point this year the Eskom strategy will be clear and at least some orders placed (I find it inconceivable that this would not include a SA supplied VFRB). The relative uncertainties will diminish. Add in some BE action and who knows how much more the SP could end up

no sign of a 50% hike today yet DL

well BG ... not heard FM say "not the most straight forward story ... over time hope people 'get it" before ... clearly frustrated.

ha ha .. nice one BG :-)

we flicked the domino over at the end of last year as well DBB... and the year before !!!