Member Info for fairdealer20

Jekyll and Hyde. worm has turned, delusional, Gamekeeper turned Poacher, or CON MAN. Take your pick!!

Tricky....... speculation is for Traders and there are many on these boards who ramp, de-ramp and so on.

Long term Holders, and there are many of us, are in for income and forward capital growth. The income return here was better than most investments, was being the operative word. We are now looking a forward looking plan which will return this company to the dividend list which in turn adds value to the SP. Long term holders tend to assess risk and not speculate as Traders, who are here today and gone tomorrow.
The virus does not make me personally anxious . I cannot see how an Economy can stand constant returns to lock-down and sustain the irreparable damage being created. A vaccine is still very uncertain, remember Sars was around 10 years ago and still no vaccine. The difference now with CV19 as opposed to March when it began to ravage economies, we now have treatments, not a vaccine, which are effective. The question is why continue down this ruinous course?

Of course uncertainties are the Tools of a speculator ( Trader)!!!

A valuation of £780m relies on Carlsberg retaining loan debt ( cannot see it as Carlsberg UK are purely a Brewing Company), unless the Parent is going to take over the debt?)
On the basis £230m will add to Mars NAV, until the full year accounts are published in December and we know the value of the retained Estate , it is pure speculation how high or low that value will be . If an 85% discount is correct, why has the Market not recognised?
Apart from how the JV will work through, the Whole Hospitailty sector is in turmoil because unlike previous major Economic disruptions, this one is different and uncharted waters. Company's who survive are financially strong and prepared for diversification in the Changing World we are living through.

"are not as rosy"

A lot of chatter regarding the values of both brewing businesses and the resultant value to Marstons.

Headline values frequently quoted, £580m(Mars) and £200m(Carls), but no mention of apportioned Loan debt attached to both Businesses. Dig into the records and it is clearly seen Marstons Brewery Business has NET worth of £196m and Carlsberg £137m.
A question I am yet to discover is, will the attached Loan Debts be transferred to the New Company (CMBC)? i.e circa £447m(£384m,Mars, £63m Carls). This is a simplified method to establish true asset value attributable to CMBC. There are unknowns, the way Marstons will use the reciept from Carlsberg, will Loan providers allow Brewery Assets to be transferred where held as Security?
What this highlights is if the asset being transferred are to meet the values being stated, the Parent will retain the apportioned Debt or the Loan is transferred to CMBC.( unlikely imo).

The numbers are as rosy as at first thought, add to which as Barchid highlighted a few days ago, Marstons have some high coupon Loans which will probably remain even after payment from Carlsberg .

The JV completion is still to play out, I may revisit after Tuesday with my thoughts.

Mike, your frustration continues!!!
Taking a pessimistic view will not change the outcome.
Shell and Deltic were awarded Joint Licences in the last round, all within the basin where other Licences are held. Do you seriously think Shell will walk away?
I keep the fact MS is in higher then myself and in the unlikely event he should start off-loading, we would all be in deep do do.

Tricky..... suggest you choose your words more carefully.
I 'll respectfully ask you to provide factual evidence which is contary to that posted?

The Company receives £239m on completion the remaining, up to £34m, is payed 12 months after completion and dependant on the price of a basket of Company's.
Marstons Brewing Co has been regarded as the Jewel in the Company's Crown. The JV as anyone knows will enable the Company to reduce it's huge debt pile.
Based on the respective sales of Marstons (£389m), Carlsberg (£414m), a 50/50 split would have seemed appropriate, however as is easily seen by those who have followed MARS these past few years a cash offer could not be resisted. It is entirely likely following the aborted sale of Pitcher and Piano last year and then the hugely discounted Sale to Admiral, RF was between a rock and hard place and the approach to or from Carlsberg was extremely opportune.
It should be noted that whereas Marstons sales had increased year on year for at least 3 years whereas in the same period Carlsberg sales have fallen each year (17-19 inclusive). Carlsberg are relatively cash rich and Marstons not.

I have projected Marstons share of profits from the JV, previously, and just to standstill sales for the Joint Venture must grow by 22% in the first 5 years. Be in no mistake Carlsberg will call the shots, they already have. Just hope the requirement of Marstons to retain at least 50% of Pubs is not a "Bear-trap".
Dismissing the possibilty of a "Tetley" situation is ignoring Carlsberg's record in JVs/Takeovers.
Anyone who believes Carlsberg is a Charity need to seek help.

The problems for the whole industry are manifest and only time will prove who is right and who is wrong.

barchid here's a better one "Confidence Trickster"

Take with a pinch of salt??

Did'nt Malcy get snubbed by Swindells a few weeks ago??

Lets see if the SFO ignore matters related to Marstons. Anyone who has insiders as you claimed are investigated.
The next knock at door, " hello hello".
Where do you prefer Supercharger , Broadmoor or Winson Green. You have choice. Free meals and unlimited Internet access!!!

Mike have you ever wondered why you invest in shares? It seems to me it is making you a nervous wreck.

Your case rests with the Fraud Squad.

You may have fooled some here but I realised give you enough rope and you would hang yourself, and true to form you have .

What a suprise!!! It was obvious from your early days here that you are not the person you would have others believe.

The strategy was clear a while ago when fake news continued to flow from your keyboard, 2000 pubs, largest brewer in UK , at least Fiona summed you up well, " talking tosh". Like many so called experts who inhabit these boards, your best defence is to attack those who have some knowledge which irritates Traders. Trader is what you are and absolutely no intention of being a long term investor, pontificating only days ago the SP would be 80-100p what a fraud.
As for using me and others to suit your strategy, what nonsense, are you deluded and full of your own self importance.
One wonders what your benefactor is thinking looking down , if indeed he ever existed. The shares bequeathed are clearly no longer held, if again they ever existed.
It is to be hoped anyone here who was gullible enough to believe the total self serving reports you published, have now seen through dishonest a poster and have not been burnt. If not suggest they take the time and trouble and read your posts which are more based on fantasy than reality.

At least you have had the decency, having let the cat out of the bag a few days ago, to concede you no long hold shares in Marstons, if you ever did to the levels stated.

bootsox the duty on 4.5% beer is just over 85p/litre

Mike do you post on ADVFN under a different moniker?

Redundances may be a dirty word, afraid it does indicate Management is protecting the Company and ultimately Shareholders interests. There will be worse to come when the Breweries Combine, admin, management, production and disitribution staff to be slimmed down. It is a survival of the fittest .

The estate was last valued externally in yr 2018. Last year(2019) Management applied certain triggers and revised the Valuation. The net being an increase of just over £24m ( assume this relates to New Build and aquisitions). It is to be expected yr just ended will show a further revision of Estate valuation, downwards, to take account of the Sale to Admiral.

Deferrment of tax is an interesting issue, even though mentioned there is no accounting provision stated. Alchohol Duty and VAT are significant numbers. It is assumed the retention of Tax has inflated overall trading returns. Have tried to nail down some comparable figures from last year's accounts but so far have eluded me.

The increase in off-sales is good and more than off-sets the decrease through Pubs where margins are considerably greater, Supermarkets may move quantity and aid cash-flow but margins are paper thin. It should also be remembered their (Supermarkets) trading terms can keep suppliers waiting some weeks before payment.

Good grief srostron, this only got into the 130p when the company was paying a handsome dividend.

Greatcrested.......correct. The statement is nothing more than most expected and so far the Market is not impressed. Maybe wrong but on further digestion of this RNS, do'nt be surprised if the SP goes lower.
The statement leaves many questions which will only become clearer once Yr end accounts are released in December. An item which should be of significance even though debt reduction has increased basiscally due to the sale of Pubs to Admiral, we are yet to know how the sale will reflect in the Estate value. One suspects on we know ( the Pubs were sold at a con siderable discount to Book value)

Further evaluation of the statement is ongoing.

AIMO

He (RG) has max holding in Circassia without having to make a bid. Appears to building holding in Pharmas, just hope he does not do what happen in JOG where he took a major holding after Schroders exited and then unceremonously off-loaded diving the SP for many weeks. OK small oilers are always a high risk and pharmas are in better territory, so trust his investment is long term!