Member Info for fairdealer20

How many have read page 12 of the latest presentation? Few I guess, unless investor and the Market do not believe the stock is Trading at a 80% discount to it's fully risked NAV. MAD.

Joe you have probably bought at the top of the current uptrend. Be prepared for re-trenchment especially when the annual accounts are announced in 3 weeks.

IMO and I will probably get shot down in flames, Society is not disciplined and what ever form of lockdown is used, there will always be those who will ignore. Regrettably it is not just the young who ignore but now older generations who have got tired of Lockdown and just want to live whether it means death or not. Many I know are saying, this is no life just get on with it and to hell with the consequences....no one can live forever!! The colateral damage is becoming far worse than Covid. Now we are hearing of a CV19 variant, coming out of Spain, which is far more virulent.
People now should be wise enough to take their own precautions and act accordingly and allow life to get back to some form of normality.
Poleaxe me now for my views!!!

Have you or anyone wondered why the Furlough period has been extended to end of March???

The Beer and Innkeerers association along with The British Institute of Brewing and Hospitality have just issued a report following a poll of their Members. The report states 72% of Members are working at a loss and do not expect to suvive.

This is a very worrying report and hope to hell it does not come about, however even more stimulation for Marstons to re-invent the Business model as I have been suggesting for many months. Marstons cannot afford to lose that many Pubs otherwise the JV will be breached.

We are currently sitting at the NAV, as published a year ago. Annual figures to be published in 3 weeks will disclose where we are at and the as Barchid as stated several times, valuation of the retained Estate. Expect disclosures regarding disposal of under-performing Pubs.
The hospitality side of the business , will need to show resilience both now and going forward, as imo CV19 has created both threats and opportunities. Once the pandemic is well and truly under control and life returns to some state of normality, general belief stay-cation will be the name of the game, maybe too ambitious for these reasons. Many will want guaranteed sun and warmth, some not, many will take short-breaks( long weekends), many will getaway during Public Holidays and Summer. Many Motels/Hotels cater for Business Meetings/Breaks/Stays, which because of home working , zoom-meetings etc are and will be closely scrutinised by Business Managers. In many ways Business use of Motels is their "bread and butter".
As I suggested many weeks ago this pandemic is causing most Businesses to examine their Business Model and innovate. Marstons are at the forefront of change and must embrace it wholeheartly. Pub Businesses have been slowly dying for years, closures testity to the climate. Those who have innovated have survived and will need to further adapt and show vision for the future. I want to see Marstons coming forward with clear and precise plans on how the business will develope, they may need to re-invent and even take on new opportunities.

SC is still active with Capita and Gold mines. Did wonder if his " skills" have been captured by one of the groups who appear regularly in the Outback on Aussie Gold Miners?????

To add another dynamic to this debate. We ( in UK) have just subscibed to an offer @ 5p/share. If the company wish to raise further funds will the subscription price be higher in Canada than UK, on the basis of stock shortage????
Quite a conundrum!!

JA understand what you are saying, but where is the uniformity of markets? We are not dealing with a 3rd World market so would believe there should be a degree of equinimity. 30% differential cannot be right and leads one to think MM's either here or in TSX are managing the market to their own advantage.

Let's think about this a bit more. Will Canadian holders receive a different Dividend to UK holders?

JA it seems ludicrous to me....different Ordinary shares in the same company?? I must be potty?
Are Canadian Investors ( former Toscana) able to buy on LSE?

GGG, it does not seem right to me. Who would buy in one market when they could buy in the other at a 30% discount and visi versa. How ever it is viewed someone is making money out of it.

Sometime ago I held mining shares quoted on both ASX and LSE, there was little difference in daily prices even taking into account currency rates.
Is someone making fools of us??

Hi Scooby....hope you are well?
Shorting imo is a scurge and should be controlled. Some will will say it aids liquidity, it may but it also allows market manipulation by the big boys. How many PI's realise shares held in Trustee accounts are lent by unscrupulous brokers?

Does their Client live in the Blackpool area?

Could it be the "Griffiths Factor"? He has a reputation to off-load and create dramatic stock falls.

Barchid,

Having debated the debt level for more than 2 years, going back to the days of high Dividend payments, sooner or later debt must be addressed. When compared with others in the sector, even >>>Spoons, Marston's balance sheet is not so robust.
Mr Marmite ( Tim Martin) maybe a siren, but even though they have strenghtened their balance sheet, serious concerns from the "Coal-face" is echoing what many already know.
I recieve circulars from Marston's individual hostelries ( where I stay from time to time), and just 5 days ago was informed a particular Motel had closed due to the 2nd lockdown. No mention of a takeaway service etc when other establishments closer to me and not Marstons are operating takeaway service ( did so through the 1st lockdown). Is Marstons missing a trick??
Sales (Income) may decrease, debt will not without fundamental action. Whether or not Bond holders agree further waivers in 3 weeks time remains to be seen. IMO they may well require undertakings that some replacement Funding is raised. We will see, cannot see Bond-holders continually approving waivers without some fundamental undertakings.

AIMO

The reduction of rents whether temporary or otherwise will reduce income and in consequence the ability to service debt, which in turn makes a fund raise more likely..

RR are in a unique position with the Government's Golden Share which gives PI's considerable comfort. Of course depending on individual's exposure, the RI was virtually impossibe to reject. As here many have done very well in recent days with the bounce back within Markets. As in most markets some win some lose. The maxim being the market is the transfer of money from investor to another.

The question still remains, " how will Marstons fund the Operational Excellence for the Pub and Accomodation Business"?

Trent

Realise my views on a RI are not popular. Just analyse where we were and where we are.
The historic debt pile has reduced through the JV, we still have debts around £1.1Billion. We are yet to know the true impact of Covid on profits. I suspect even though sales since the end of the first lockdown have bounced back, we do not know how profit margins have come out.We were hearing a lot about the growth in supermarket sales, but as most suppliers will testify margins are wafer thin...good for consumers but not producers.
As yet there has been little or no hard figures for the lockdown, it is reasonable to assume they are dire. Now we are into another lockdown, hopefully not as severe as the first, but still impacting on profits.
The company have ambitous plans to focus on operationally making the retained estate places of excellence. This will require funds. Where are those funds to come from, further borrowing or direct funding?
The Company accept there is uncertainty for the forseeable future, so unlikely funding will be available from current profit generation.
How will the programme of estate improvement be funded???

In response to Hads comments, suggest the financial history is reviewed. The company had debts of £1.3billion at the end of the last financial year. Endeavours were made to make in-roads. Pitcher and Piano deal failed but a sale to Admiral completed at a considerable discount to book value. Carlsberg come along and forge a deal, a dam good deal for them, CMBC is created as a separate Company which Marstons have a 40% share. Carlsberg would have been aware of Marstons financial position which no doubt enabled a good deal for them. The Brewery assets have been transferred to CMBC and there fore any belief Carlsberg would have been concerned about Marston's can be dismissed.
As a point of interest Molson Coors have just sold one of the oldest Brewery's in Burton for in excess of £100m. The site is to be redeveloped. It is highly likely with the amalgamation of Carlsberg and Marston's Breweries closure of one or more will happen within 3 years.

Meredith sorry to hear of the problem/dilemma you and your daughter are dealing with. I tend to agree with Pitterpatter, your husband may well not be happy. It is a tricky one and hopefully you are able to get some better information from your husband.
Your husband may have bought these shares on income grounds...MARS were paying an excellent dividend until the beginning of this year, so there could be any number of issues to consider.
I agree and disagree with turnpan, just be careful what information you choose to consider or disregard.

Best of luck

A further scenario which could assist a Buy-back could be further Asset disposals. I would not be surprised to see MARS share in CMBC being reduced in 2-3 years time.