Member Info for fairdealer20

chubby don't forget Carlsberg are senior partner in the Carlsberg Marstons Brewing Company.

who applied and got allocation in last weeks Offer with Primary Bid? Has the allocation arrived in your account with II?

Barchid
We questioned the appointment in the summer. I have believed for sometime the company requires further funding to bolster the balance sheet. If recovery does not materialise as hoped and the almost certainty further loan caviats will not be agreed, a Rights is almost certain. Peel Hunt need to get the SP nearer £1 in order to get a RI underwritten.

Nigella, my view on Brexit is probably going to create some hostility, however I have always believed the EU were going to make our leaving as difficult as possible and consequently a Trade Agreement would be highly unlikely to be agreed. On that basis I seriously believed our best course of action is to leave without an agreement. The Uk will save the huge contributions and OK it will be hard for 2-3 years, but we are a resilient and inventive society and will come through.
I am now going into my Word-proof Bunker!!!!

Should be noted Peel Hunt is the Company's House Broker

There will cost savings , expect 1 or 2 breweries to close. Carlsberg have tended to use thinner margins than Marstons to achieve bigger market share. This is likely to continue. Ultimately Carlsberg want to be up with or ahead of Heineken and Coors Molson etc
I prefer the Jury is out rather than "guilty until proven innocent"

Traditional hops varieties, Fuggles and Goldings , have been in decline for at least 40 years, mainly because of their management. These varieties are particularly prone to disease, especially mildew which does have a devastating effect on production. Hence many of the traditional Hop Yards where massively expensive pole and wire-work were once seen throughout Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Kent, have been replaced with dwarf hops which as the term conveys are easier to manage, the wire work is only 2 metres high whereas the Older Yards had structures often 5-6 metres high.
These newer varieties have been bred at East Malling in Kent, a one time Government Research Station.
There is a wide range of new varieties most with differing characteristics for aroma, flavour , disease resistance etc. These varieties have genetic material derived from Fuggles and Goldings, which in turn were discovered from wild stocks in the 1700's. There are still a few yards growing fuggles and Goldings, which tend to find there way to local Brewers.
If as suggested hops will become difficult to source in a couple of years( something I doubt), New Zealand has a thriving hop growing industry around Nelson, which could and does supply dried hops to Europe. We are not dependant on the EU for hops.
Dried hops can be stored for sometime providing they are kept at low humidity and free of pests. The problem for growers is storage. Hops are very bulky.

Trust Boris!!, staycation for Brits next year, won't be able to brew enough beer to meet the demand, especially as all EU brews will be heavily taxed. What a bonanza for UK Brewers! These could be the words of Tesla man a few weeks ago. It seems his car's memory has gone into critical malfunction mode, like the owner.

Do you mean phone Tinder and get the Service delivered to your home address, like Deleveroo, get some wacky backy and forget about Covid and disappear into a magical orgasmic World. Your'e right Breweries will be redundant!!

It must be Christmas, a time of Fairy Tales.

The notes on Going Concern make stark reading and empahasies the fragility the company has should further Loan Waivers be required. The BOD admit the uncertainty, should trading condition not improve as expected, Lenders may well not allow further Waivers! Stark reading indeed.

Dad the reduction in the current year relates to the reciept from Carlsberg (£233m) on 30th October. The figure released today are for year end 30Th September.

Daave the 3-4m is per week. The reduction in Pub Numbers assumes they are under performing and we must now be approaching Core performing Pubs, although this is debatable considering the timeline involved with the COVID restrictions and every possibilty it is going to continue into the Spring.

Daave you will know better than most, how many booking would have been made and deposited before 30th September, yr end? If as you suggest deposits were made pre 30th September, they will be included in these figures. Is the amount likely to be significant?
We can paw over these accounts and pick out positives, negatives and come to different conclusions.

Digging into to full report does reveal some threats, would we expect the company to be anything but positive?
The residual debt position is worse than I expected. Ok Goodwill has been fully discounted and will probably be revalued for the next set of figures. I always have concerns about Goodwill values, almost like thinking of a number and doubling it? That is probably a cynical way to view Goodwill but trust the meaning gets across.

A lot of numbers to consider, 2 items which standout to me...net debt £1.633billion ( will reduce in current year when the JV consideration is credited and debt on the numbers quoted will be around £1.4billion).

NAV per share drastically reduced to 50p ( was 72p last year), admitted impairments have had a dramatic effect especially the full removal of Goodwill. The company expects the NAV to increase in FY21 , by 48p, i.e to more or less 98p. This will be due to the inclusion of Carlsberg funds and some restitution of Goodwill value.

There is a lot to consider, how ever as Daave remarks positive bullet points, ambitious????

Interesting to note The Swan Inn ( now closed and vacant) overlooks Poole Harbour just on the Market at £425K. In a desirable location and plans to convert into 3/4 flats. The signage indicates MARSTONS. Seems cheap to me. No I am not buying.

Tomorrow's figures are going to be interesting?

YoYoMa, or maybe Billy Smart has sacked his Clowns!!

"I would not be led by three regulars on here that only talk up the share to release their own (if they even hold any shares) but they may have options?"

What an utterly bizarre and contradictory statement. Readers should review the posters previous posts, goes from Strong Buy to Strong Sell. Maybe the Tesla need recharging or even supercharging, to make it go forward!!
In a word " unbalanced".

Barchid,

Yep the dialogue has familiar patterns!

Is there a chance these auto-traders drive Tesla's?

British pubs have been the heart of many communities for generations, however for at least 20 years closures have been constant year on year..
Optimism springs eternal as does caution.!!!

claire...your enthusiasm may be infective, I would issue caustion.
This pandemic is having untold effects on life as we have known. As agreed drinking habits have changed, are we likely to see pubs working to capacity once Lockdowns have ended? The Beer and Pub Association along with British Brewers have rcently conducted a survey of it members. A large majority believe their businesses are unlikely to be viable and many will not re-open. This is a vital outlet for Brewers as this is where profit margins are the best. Sales through Supermarkets etc may rocket, but this only increases cash flow and not margins. In fact margins through Supermarkets etc are paper thin.

IMO the NAV of any company needs to be considered against it's SP.

CMBC is a separate company in which Marstons have a 40% share. Marstons breweries have been transferred to CMBC.

Marstons retain Pubs and Accomodation Properties. Marstons will be in breach of the JV should they reduce Pub Outlets by more than 50%.

The one thing currently supporting the SP is NAV.
Fundamentals should be fully considered as any return to the Dividend list is unlikely for sometime.

So far as waivers are concerned, and I stand to be corrected, they will apply until Lockdowns end and then Loan swaps to BNP come into play where loan rates are to be agreed by 31st December 2021.

By way of a comparitor in the last month the SP of M&B has increased by over 41% and Mars by 37%. M&B are in the FTSE 350.

New posters should examine the details of the JV . Have produced projections previously on the CMBC financials. Mars 40% holding in CMBC, requires, for profits derived from the Brewing side to remain constant, an increase of 22% over the next 5 years is required. Carlsberg UK operate on slimmer profit margins than Marstons. Carlsberg have/are an aquisitive Company seeking market dominance, we are the Junior partner.

Figures to be released in 7 days will disclose the Company's Financial Health, hopefully not as bad as some believe.
This next year is going to be challenging for most in the Hospitality Business, those with robust balance sheets will come through this economic disaster.

AIMO DYOR