Member Info for extrader

Hi scottology,

With the twist that shareholder approval would be a formality once the BoD had OK'd......no doubt they'd include wording to the effect that 'Director's undertakings to commit their shareholdings were conditional on no higher ( = X% min) counter-offer being presented by (= date)…".

All very, very hypothetical, it seems to me atm.....but I'm also very, very happy to be proved wrong ;->
ATB

Hi 998 sport,

I didn't fall into the trap, my post @1032 included …" why no-one seems interested in taking Germany to task over its increased use of lignite, the dirtiest form of coal...."

ATB

And that's growing unreliable/intermittent renewables as a substitute for baseload nuclear....
Sheesh !

Me again,

Forgot to add https://www.statista.com/statistics/583158/energy-consumption-by-source-germany/

which basically shows that from 2005 to 2018, Germany's growth in renewables has basically only offset (at tremendous subsidy cost) its DECREASE in nuclear, whilst coal consumption has remained basically unchanged / undiminished.

Shome mishtake, shurely ?
ATB

Hi SG2,

It would be useful for those of us who are still educating ourselves on the whole climate change argument if (a) you'd spell out which bits of Ridley's article are misleading, (b) why the Green lobby doesn't embrace nuclear as an intermediate fix (and gain thereby a lot of credibility as to the politics behind their mission); and (c) why no-one seems interested in taking Germany to task over its increased use of lignite, the dirtiest form of coal.
Never mind the really large polluters, China and India.
" The dog was too big, so I kicked the cat "

ATB

Hi bakky,

The Chronic Investor ? Aaaaargh - that's usually the kiss of death.....;->

To be fair, the write-up seems pretty balanced....and moderately bullish re prospects of jam in the not too distant.

But you knew that already ;->
ATB

Hi Dr Remington,

AT's making a number of good points - not anything that PI's haven't picked up on independently , mind - but who do you think his intended audience is ?
He may be giving a 'snapshot briefing' for passing PI's or others interested generally in the mineral resources sector, including maybe the trade press, but no company or prospective partner or acquirer will have learnt anything that they don't already know.
Maybe it's what fishermen call 'baiting the pool ' ?

ATB

Hi all,

Africa Intelligence has posted a piece (behind paywall, I may get round to it later) that suggests Nguesso MAY be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...;-<

Quote : Party over as IMF hits town

Six months after securing a $448.6 million loan package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for reasons that had more [...] unquote.

If anybody knows/can find out what this is about, pls share !

ATB

Hi Yobbo,

Not sure production read-across is a proper comparator as to 'value' or prospects (as reflected in s/p) : you could have 2 x companies producing 40K barrels, one with reserves of 100m, one with reserves of 300m....other things being equal, you'd expect the 2nd co to be considered more 'valuable'.

ATB

Hi all,

This is what the man himself has posted today elsewhere :
" scottf
15 Nov '19 - 16:44 - 7982 of 7982
0 3 0
Hi

I’m a buyer of the stock as I see value of a multiple uplift from here

There are obvious risks along the way and as I have said before my view is that the risk v reward here is one of the best on AIM

My current intention is to wait to see us get to financial close - have no plans to top slice, I’m in for the long term

Market rules mean I can’t cross a percentage point without notifying the market. If I was to sell any of my holding it would be to a supportive shareholder via a broker and it would be placed out and not be into the market

I hope this answers the question of whether I am a long term holder or not

I see this as an investment not an opportunity to trade the price and I’m backing the board to deliver on a great opportunity.

Do your own research, this is not advice and best of luck, this is my current view based on current company performance and obviously reserve all rights to buy or sell as I see fit based on future events. "

Hope this is of interest.
ATB

Hi Wedgwood,

Good find ! And even better is to follow the link therein https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/205652/mariner-is-natural-fit-for-equinor-despite-climate-challenge/,

which addresses the Norwegian state oilco's view of the continuing role of heavy oil in meeting our energy needs.

ATB

Hi Deepsurvey1/Phoebus,

…"There is a shortage of high sulphur fuel oil(HSFO) in the market. The Lack of Venezuelan and Iranian medium-heavy crude grades and opec production cuts have put a dent in the supply. Refineries that are geared up for HSFO are desperate for it...."

Hence : See https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-11/repsol-looks-to-alberta-to-replace-mexican-and-venezuelan-oil

ATB

Hi Time2Buy,

Old/wrong link ? Article refers to things starting in Q2 2019....

ATB

Hi again IJWT,

I just mentioned Repsol and.....lo and behold ...a Spanish value investor has just picked up a declarable 3%+ stake in TLW.
Most likely just coincidence, but maybe a straw in the wind ?

Do you know anything about www.azvalor.com ?

ATB

Hi IJWT,

Worth bearing in mind that Repsol (Carapa operator) is ACTIVELY looking for heavy oil, to replace its historic Venezuela sources, going as far as shipping by RAIL from the Alberta tar sands...

See https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-11/repsol-looks-to-alberta-to-replace-mexican-and-venezuelan-oil

HALF A MILLION BARRELS A MONTH to supply their crackers (25% of European capacity) with feedstock for high value gasoline and diesel.

It's an ill wind, etc.....

ATB

Hi hereandnow,

My point earlier ! And don't forget (a) Hess (man and co) hasn't come clean AFAIAA re Hammerhead's own API details, but deem it commercial. We have a part of that. and (b) from the schematic. Jethro appears to lie BELOW Hammerhead...

ATB

Hi Mitch984,

I can see the Chinese being wary of GLEN , but …" the presence of Glencore has driven them towards the higher capital cost of Simandou…" seems to be over-egging things : they could offer GLEN $2, 3, 4 billion for their 50% and still make a massive saving on Simandou reported costs...

$ 3BN would be between 1 and 1 1/2 years net profit.....

ATB

Me again,

Got it now (still raining/sleeting) :

- from poster BrightSpot on Weds . He seems to be 'connected' , referencing as source 'the boys in Ace's Bar, Georgetown' (google is your friend, if you want a flavour....):

"Firstly to get news of heavy oil at this stage, months after the two drills, is very disappointing. I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT OIL FLOWED TO SURFACE ON BOTH DRILLS AND NOTHING SUGGESTED ANY FLOW ISSUES ON THE DRILLS.

All heavy oils are not the same and reservoir characteristics play as much in the flow assurance as does the oil gravity.

Anyhow, none of this is good news "etc

ATB

Hi noix,
Again Devil's advocate : at that stage (24 hours), I doubt whether Gil would know API (as I think dexcel has suggested) and even if he did, he couldn't draw API quality comparisons with Hammerhead because (as I queried earlier) they don't appear to have been disclosed to the market yet.... a lot more than 3 months later.
He talks about Hammerhead other characteristics, which HAVE been disclosed eg oil column .
ATB
PS it's raining , so no olive harvesting today. 150 Kg so far (by hand) , which with a 20% recovery factor gives about 30 lt own, organic oil....

Hi noix/dexcel,

Thanks for the link.
Gil says - the day after the discovery - that the oil flowed easily, as did a poster referencing the Georgetown sports bar (can't locate him atm), who may have first-hand experience.
But you'd expect that from a high pressure/high temp well, wouldn't you, even if it turned out that on cooling it became more viscous ?
OTOH, wouldn't the high sulphur fail the 'smell test' ?

Just playing devil's advocate.
ATB