Member Info for extrader

Hi technician,

I see you've posted on target prices before ! So :

Name share price nominated charity
extrader 200p Alzheimer's Research
technician 384 ?

If willing to play, just plug in your chosen charity and cut and paste, for others to add.
£ 100 to the charity chosen by whoever guesses nearest the eventual sale price.

ATB

Hi chablard,

You ask …."I said how can she marry living off oil taxes and her stance on climate change.?"

The same way she can ignore the outcome of a "once-in a- generation " referendum.
Some might say, in so doing, she's burnishing her credentials as a 'good European' (Lisbon , anyone ?)

ATB

Hi scottology,

I beg to differ.
Even if there is £ 100 of 'value' (whatever you mean by that), over the life of the mine, that's over 40 years. The most adventurous rate at which that cashflow would be discounted would likely leave you with around £ 25-30 of current money 'value'.

You have to pay the capex at/near the start of the 40 years ie near 'current money' and knock that off (£2-3bn) over how many shares (no dilution ? Congo's free 10% ? tax/royalty regime ? sweeteners to third party contractors ? charge for any free carry ? etc etc).

The Chinese have a strategic/political interest in PN deepwater port and good rail access to Central African Republic etc, but what' they'd pay up for the purely commercial side of things ie Zanaga is another matter - in fact, they'd probably want to squeeze the costs of that down to cross-subsidize the other stuff and make the overall numbers work...

The reality is, until we see detailed terms, we're both 'spit-balling' . We like CEO's who 'under-promise and over-deliver' and don't set themselves - or their shareholders - up for a fall, why should we as PI's on a bulletin board act differently ?

ATB
PS I'll be happy to be 'surprised and delighted' if we get - net - anything more than £2.00. If your defence is 'It's just a bit of fun' why not start a book.... we each nominate our target price and chosen charity, whoever is nearest to the outcome, his/her charity benefits. Suggest £100 donation (peanuts, if the boat comes in).
I'll start the ball rolling with target price £ 2.00 and nominated charity Alzheimers Research...

...and the 2 x 300 K trades around 1035 are likely buys , as the mkt then was 49/51...

Hi SoupChicken

A case of 'My enemy's enemy is my friend...?'

ATB

Yes....now 550K shares showing as buys in 13 trades over 15 mins.....

Hi all,

This is a barebones Framework Agreement, we might/should get more substance in Q1 2020.

A Joint Develop Agreement would be the next positive step, but see NCCL ('shareholder overlap' company)for potential read-across re timelines....

As Winston might - did in fact - say : " This is not the end. This isn't even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning..."

Patience, grasshoppers !

ATB
PS Always happy to be surprised (positively) on a timeline !

Hi atg,

Thanks for this - agree it looks encouraging from a macro perspective !

Meanwhile , Africa Intelligence has just headlined : CONGO
Sapro preparing a second shipment of iron ore....

The first shipment IIRC was over a year ago. The would-be second de-railed.

So Congo has yet to add to the mix...I don't think ZANAGA has much domestic competition atm !

Maybe Sapro's 'sponsor' - Nguesso - should look elsewhere/in addition...

ATB

Hi Sidneysideline

I must say I like your timeline ;-)

ATB

Hi atg,

Thanks for this.

I'm fine with Chinese demand forecast for iron ore to remain static, because (a) it seems from the article that domestic miners will be supplying less ie imports will rise; and (b) the imports will favour higher quality ore (such as Zanaga's….and Simandou's etc), because of the domestic pollution issue that the Chinese are reportedly battling with.

And if we 'consider the source' - India - the article talks of lowering taxes on lower-quality product to boost sales, which (a) doesn't seem to be competition for us and (b) doesn't address the elephant in the room of INDIA's rising pollution problems, that will surely have to be addressed at some point.

Maybe Greta should visit Delhi and do some preaching there ?

ATB

Hi beardozer,

Still holding...and fairly relaxed : since last year, as others have said, we've seen the IMF issue resolved, the Vale tailings problem, China's emphasis on 'clean' steel, Simandou 'resolved' [ and setting a useful benchmark], Peter Freyberg (ex Xstrata, original buyer-in to Zanaga) appointed GLEN head of mining …...and just recently, Ivan Glasenberg coming under pressure ...and maybe looking for a rabbit to pull out of the hat..
Plus ZIOC management seemingly preparing themselves for a payday.
What's not to like ?
The only negative I can see (I invite others) is that the cash balances are running down, but , as I've commented previously, there are a number of ways of dealing with this that wouldn't be dilutive.

The big unknown limiting factor I now see as any issues there may be between Nguesso and the Chinese (who of course have plenty of other issues to deal with : trade, Hong Kong etc.)

ATB

PS Fun fact (from The Economist): apparently, there are more foreign-born residents in Los Angeles or Melbourne than there are foreign residents in the WHOLE of China... with so little interaction you can see why the West sees the Chinese as 'inscrutable' or an enigma...

Hi all,

The timeline of recent developments is quite interesting : the watercut issue was kicked off by a post from Carcosa on 2nd Dec following OGA's release a day or so before of quarterly stats to Sept.

Note : always 3 months in arrears.

Dr T gives a talk on 28th Nov and people are looking for body language re WD outcome. He's described by various attendees as 'totally relaxed' and master of his brief.

Remember, he's here in front of his professional peers, a rare opportunity for him to shine and 'prove the doubters wrong'.

We know he knows the results of WD....yet he's outwardly unconcerned. 'Tis but a scratch, sire' - it's a blow, but not fatal.... Spirit's carry, a scale-back in expectations, perhaps.

OTOH, he'd also know on 28th Nov that Q3 info release (including water cut) was imminent ...and he'd know the position, not only to Q3 but probably to 27th Nov.

I find it hard to believe that - if the water cut issue was a 'killer' , a crippling blow to his FB thesis , about to be revealed - he'd have been able to display the equanimity that he reportedly did.

Or he deserves an Oscar.

NAI, DYOR and ATB

Hi all,
From my limited experience of messing around in small boats, there are 2 differences between anchors and fixed moorings, such as piles :
- anchors have been known to drag;
- on the other hand, because they aren't fixed, they (and the vessel they secure) can be moved and re-secured quickly.

There are obvious advantages and disadvantages to each !
ATB

Hi Albi1,

You missed the corollary : they also make the most noise.....

ATB

Hi Dark_Knight2020,

Depending on their attitude to life, I'm sure you'll find takers for all 4 ;-> !

ATB

Hi adoubleuk/cebo,

…""Apparently over 65% of dogs are Labs, and 65% of Labs are Scottish. "

From this information, are we supposed to conclude that when oil samples are submitted for Lab Testing, the work is performed in Scotland?..."

Nah, that's left to the Golden Retriever ;->

Woof! Woof!
ATB

Hi Albi1,

" I guess what goes around comes around and we appear to be reaping the results of our previous actions..."

Or inactions. Whenever there's a discussion about politics/north of the border, at some point I invariably find myself being reminded of PG Wodehouse's observation that ‘It has never been hard to tell the difference between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.’

;->

ATB extrader (full disclosure - part Wallace, can trace lineage through Bowes-Lyon to Robert the Bruce)

Hi Ecosselibre,

Well , I suppose the elected representative for the Shetlands might have a view.... and, of course, in today's 'indirect representation' the Shetlanders themselves might have a view.

Perhaps they should have a referendum...;->?

ATB

Hi TruroTrader,

…"Bet it'll be like buses - three come along at once!..."

I think you must be as old as me to be using that phrase....but probably from a different part of the country/haven't used a bus service recently....;->

Where I am - Midlands - buses tend to be cancelled, not 'bunch up'....;-<

I share the underlying sentiment, if not the way you described it !
ATB

Hi SG2,

Hope your 'walkabout mobile' is enjoyable ! A few years back, I walked the Ruta de la Lana ('wool trail'), from Alicante to Burgos, abt. 700 Km.
Amongst the many memorable moments was walking through parts of ' the abandoned Spain', where there were few people and absolutely NO mobile coverage...refreshingly peaceful ;->!
ATB