Member Info for extrader

Hi Sooty,

Thanks for going to the horse’s mouth ! A lot of peeps seem to be at the other end ;-)

Re... Extrader what on earth are you doing up at 03.39 am :o)

Blame different time zone and sleep disrupted as I crashed after a marathon build-up run......
Probably TMI, but it is the weekend.....

ATB

Hi simonthezealot,

My bad , the risk warnings have been updated to reflect ' new news'. And how did senior management react , in the face of these worrying developments ?
By negotiating payment of future benefits and entitlements - salaries and LTIPs - in shares, the very currency facing these dilution and subordination risks.
I don't know senior management personal circs or risk appetite, but the calculation appears to work for them. It still does for me, with my comparatively modest commitment. It doesn't, evidently, for you.
Far enough, each to their own. Good luck with your other investments !
ATB

Hi simonthezealot,

Thanks for quoting the standard risks aka health warning, presumably from the ZIOC IPO document of 2011.
I take it you've only just become aware of this, despite having been invested for some time ?

Truly, ignorance is bliss !
ATB

Hi simonthezealot

Like your namesake, you sound a bit cut up (geddit ?).
Good luck with your other investments, why concern yourself/ comment on something that is history....
ATB

Hi 4kandles,

It would make no sense for the BoD to agree a discounted placing that would ‘ mark to market’ their total shareholdings for the sake of $2 or $3 million....esp. when this would become a reference point for any eventual price negotiation...

That’s my take, anyway....
ATB

Hi Sooty,

I’m with you in that I don’t think we’ll see an overnight knockout, if anything happens at all, more likely a phased rise.
There are so many actors involved that you might see some small speculative buying from the ‘outer circle’ as things start to come together ( which could of course also just be another ramp, a possibility atg suggests).
The ‘inner circle ‘ of sizeable stakeholders is pretty sticky and will likely act / react in concert : Clifford and co won’t want any fragmentation , allowing a suitor to ‘divide and rule’ / build a position so may themselves broker any potential sellers to keep stock in friendly hands. That MIGHT be what we’ve just seen with Seritza....
I’m sure there’s a reason why the incentive package covered a couple of years, too.
The phased pathway that NCCL is currently showing may have some read-across, also.
There may be a number of exitpoints along the way, a ‘ nice problem’ to have from a greed vs risk management perspective ;-)

Let’s see what happens .
ATB

Hi again sooty,
Forget bubbles, try ASC : went from 6p when I bought (actually 5.9 p), to peak at £ 75... = 1,250 x....
Of course, I sold out way earlier, but still...made about 30 x , which would be OK by me here..
ATB

Hi sooty,
Poseidon Nickel, from AUD 0.80 to AUD 280, in 6 months.

“In September 1969, the mineral exploration company Poseidon NL made a major nickel discovery at Mount Windarra 22 kilometres (14 mi) northwest of Laverton, Western Australia. In early September its shares, which had been trading at $0.80, began rising on insider trading (which was not illegal at the time). On 1 October, Poseidon announced that drilling had struck 40 metres of ore averaging 3.56% nickel and the share price immediately rose until Poseidon shares were trading at $12.30. After that, very little further information came to light but the price continued to climb on speculation. At one point, a UK broker suggested a value of up to $382 a share.[4][3]

The price of Poseidon shares quickly became too high for many investors, so some turned to stocks in other companies exploring near Windarra, and eventually other nickel mining stocks in general. As the price of mining shares grew, new companies were listed by promoters hoping to cash in. From October to December 1969 the ASX All Mining index rose by 44%. Mining stocks peaked in January 1970, then immediately crashed. Poseidon shares peaked at an intraday high of $280 in February 1970, and fell rapidly thereafter.[3].....

HTH and ATB

Hi CaptainSwag,

…." the idea that the germans would "hide" the water is laughable to anyone who knows anything about the german mentality...."
Can't speak for the Germans' role in the mix , but more interesting I think is that the Germans are BP's Germans : under the contract, HUR's oil is bought by BP ...and presumably they decide where they want their oil processed, based on commercial need.
This is the same BP that is touted as a probable suitor for HUR. Doesn't seem likely that HUR would engage in obfuscation re water issues in a way that would be obvious to them...

ATB

Hi jay12,

…"there is also the survey costs of 300 mill.. I assume glen would want those back.."

I don't think GLEN would think about it in those ways : Zanaga was an incidental in its purchase of Xstrata (which presumably made economic sense in its own right, for other reasons), the explo cost was borne by Xstrata, and in any case it was subsequently written down, by GLEN and ZIOC. As shown in the low carrying cost for both.
They'll likely have claimed a tax loss, too.
This was all 6-7 years ago - and GLEN has had far bigger fish to fry/issues to deal with in the interim. I'd be surprised if Zanaga has ever been a line item on GLEN's BoD agenda......until maybe now ;->

IF they are now minded to disposal, they'll want to get the best, realistic price. The buyer won't give a fig whether the project has cost $50 m or $500 m so far, he/she will want to pay as little as possible for what they think it's worth going forward. GLEN will know that, too.
The thing is, once you entertain an idea - whether buyer or seller - these things often acquire a life and a momentum of their own - you start thinking of the next steps.....
At the personal level, we've probably all seen this at work when we (or a significant other) start thinking of buying or selling a house...;->

Keeping the analogy, let's hope the buyer is lured into over-paying !

ATB

Me again,

US$ 700M would , coincidentally, be about 23x the current s/p , or roughly the £ 2 per share I've been advocating / arguing about all along …..

Jes' sayin ', like...

ATB

Hi Jiving, hi jay12,

Thanks for these links. To quote the unlamented MM, 'I've joined the dots..." ;->

The detailed and Zanaga-specific quote dates from 2017, but rather encouragingly is made by the same person (Kalmin), who in the latest IP indeed closed his input with

" Non-core asset disposals ? Reiterate target of at least $1bn from non-core long-term asset monetisations during 2019/2020 (c.$0.3bn completed to date) "

USD 700 million as potential read-across disposal value sounds good.....I wish !

ATB

Hi technician,

That's kind of the way I remember it , too.
On the same topic, when I skimmed through the last IP, I was struck by the almost complete absence of ANY reference to iron ore...
Playing Devil's advocate, I suppose you could argue that this was a positive for eventual disposal of GLEN's stake in Zanaga ie a 'mentally/accounting -wise 'written down' asset ' that would be a very useful rabbit to pull out of the hat, if you wanted to pay down debt/re-jig your balance sheet/create shareholder value …..which IS very much a theme of the IP.....

ATB

Hi jay12,

Thanks for your list re 'drivers'.
I was struck by : ...2/glen want to sell (for the right price as per their last IP) That was last sentence and a first ….
I've looked through the 3/12 2019 IP and couldn't see what you might be referring to....which I agree would be a 'first' and potentially 'huuuuuugely' significant...
Was it in this IP or another, pls ?

TIA and ATB

Hi Genghis,

I posted this a few days back , to show HUR's Lancaster cost advantages (p. 14) :
https://www.hess.com/docs/default-source/investor-decks/2019-october-ir-handout.pdf

If you look at it from a shale cost perspective, with most names showing at the higher end of the chart, the long-term position doesn't look good, whatever short-term economic/market gyrations there may be.....

ATB and season'sgreetings

Hi Harel,

Thanks for the link. It's worth bearing in mind, when looking at this, that the news re 'heavy/sulphurous oil' broke days later.
So to see graphics touting the 'high quality' of Jethro, Joe and Hammerhead - when we now know/suspect things are very different - is not helpful. GH WAS careful to say that 'tech evaluation of wells was progressing', but still.....

He spoke of TLW targeting a 2bn well in Namibia in April 2020, if I understood him correctly, but then of the need to keep TLW focussed, recognising that they had commitments as well as opportunities.....and a limited budget. This was all before the cratering of TLW shareprice and BoD ructions.

ECO may 'have the firepower/cash for 4-6 wells, ' I think the comment re being constrained to fewer (3 ? 2 ?) by TLW may be even more relevant now than it was then (Nov 2019).

Two positive take-aways : (1) GH seemed to think Carapa was 'low-hanging fruit' and Jethro a potential producer....and (2) he didn't expect ECO to exist in 5 years' time.

ATB

Hi all,

Hat tip to noix on the ECO board, who shared a recent Hess presentation, focussing naturally enough on Guyana.

https://www.hess.com/docs/default-source/investor-decks/2019-october-ir-handout.pdf?sfvrsn=63f17b6b_2

Turn to p 14 re 'industry leading breakevens' and - sure enough - Liza is leader of the pack.

But, but , but.....it's interesting to see that HUR's Lancaster ranks closely alongside, notwithstanding its WoS higher CAPEX and OPEX costs. And not just because Scottish whisky is pricier than Demerara's liquid gold...

We sometimes forget (well, I do at least) the inbuilt tailwind that HUR enjoys , having got underway at an industry low point.

All credit to Dr T and team.

ATB

ECO's graphic : www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9410Q_1-2019-10-23.pdf

ATB

Hi noix,

Thanks for this, esp. the 'hard numbers' of what Apache/Total clearly expect to be a major find.
We've previously shared bemusement at 2 x co's using the same/similar names.
It's still not clear to me how ECO's graphic shows 'their' Mako (Mako #3) INSIDE Orinduik concession area...

Unless we come up with something pretty spectacular on Orinduik, Total might feel they've now committed enough to the area with the Apache deal.

ATB

Hi Guyanabased,

Per Exxon, their Mako is SouthEast of Liza, per Eco, 'our' Mako is Southwest of Liza/due east of Hammerhead....

Shome mishtake, shurely… Although Exxon's 'discovery' is likely worth more than GH/Eco's 'graphic'....;-<

ATB