Member Info for extrader

Hi noix,

Thanks again - you must have friends in high (or low ;->) places.....!

I've had a quick look to see what the doc has to say from a host-country perspective about the scenario that's been discussed, of ECO and Total going ahead with an earlier drill programme than TLW may be able/willing to pursue.

Interesting to note , in Art 25 Assignment , that Minister can OK assignment by Contractor of rights , duties, obligations etc to qualified third parties , providing 'the assignment is not contrary to the interests of Guyana'.

Also, that 'Contractor' , both in preamble and defined term , means 'Tullow and Eco and includes each of their successors and permitted assignees' . Tullow is named as Operator, but operatorship can be transferred to others with Minister's OK , while IF THE TRANSFER OF OPERATORSHIP IS TO ANOTHER PARTY COMPRISING THE CONTRACTOR , the obligation is only to NOTIFY the Minister in writing.

On the face of it, if Minister has OK'd ECO's part assignment to Total, it would be a straightforward matter for Total (by virtue of its acquired status as "Contractor " ) to assume operatorship in place of Tullow.

Bearing in mind (a) the electoral cycle and (b) the lead times involved in field development, I'd say it was very much in Guyana's interest to greenlight any changes to inter-partner interests that moved matters forward. And there might be additional local political mileage in drawing extra Total $$$ towards Guyana , rather than let Suriname see the investment....

You wouldn't perchance know how the ECO/Total/Tullow discussions (if any) are proceeding, now, would you ?

ATB

Hi noix,

Thanks for this. I note that Guyana's profit share rises as production increases, so on the face of it, they're 'incentivised' to get as much oil out, as early as possible.
Against that background, it would seem they're likely to greenlight ANYTHING that the partners can come up with to bring forward monetisation.

ATB

Hi 4kandles,

…"Splashing cash on infrastructure 1000's of miles outside China makes far less sense..."

China already has a housing surfeit...and more infrastructure planned (airports, power stations, roads, bridges etc) than you can shake a stick at. All involving political choices about who ends up making money...or cross-subsidizing others. And the disgruntled can probably work out favouritism. Think of how people are getting agitated in the UK about a re-balancing away from London....and we have a much smaller cake to share around.

OTOH, overseas business (in 'small countries, far away' to requote one of our politicians) isn't usually subject to the same oversight or competition...allowing for more scope for profit / exploitation.

And that's leaving aside the political mileage/leverage aspect : the whole rationale for Belt and Road is about projecting /enhancing China's overseas image and power , when better to this than when the rest of the world is drawing in its horns ?

Just my view, of course.
ATB

Hi all,

Good points re China stimulus ! Question remains, will China want to 'go its own way' or subscribe to the 'level playing field' re debt forgiveness that the IMF is still, apparently, seeking …..

Headline from Africa Intelligence today
"CONGO
Still no deal with IMF
The delegation, which recently visited..."
rest behind paywall.

ATB

Hi Dr Remington,

I think you're being unfair , picking on stz this way ! No less an authority than John Maynard Keynes said that, when the facts changed, it was OK to change one's opinion.

The problem stz has is that the facts haven't changed, they've always been there, he's just been a bit behind the curve in discovering them, as he himself admits : "AFTER having invested thousands of pounds in to this share over the last year, I am really excited by this latest interview by AT. I DIDN'T REALISE a law had been passed by the Congolese Gov't for this project... "

Stz by name, stz by nature....Here's what google threw up, from https://truthbook.com/jesus/twelve-apostles/simon-the-zealot, extracts :

.."...He was A FIERY AGITATOR and was also A MAN WHO SPOKE MUCH WITHOUT THINKING. ....
Simon's strength was his inspirational loyalty. When the apostles found a man or woman who floundered in indecision about entering the kingdom, they would send for Simon. It usually required only about fifteen minutes for this ENTHUSIASTIC ADVOCATE of salvation through faith in God to SETTLE ALL DOUBTS AND REMOVE ALL INDECISION, to see a new soul born into the "liberty of faith and the joy of salvation."

Or, continuing the biblical theme, he's someone who's done a Saul/Paul and had his own Damascene conversion : the constant is the enthusiasm, the change is that from being excitably pro ZIOC , he's now equally excitably anti....

Bless !
ATB

Thanks, Modestus !

Call it 'confirmation bias' - or just being contrarian - but the argument makes sense....and what applies to China would presumably apply elsewhere, incl. the US...which has the added wrinkles of (a) the shale oil emperor looking rather like he has no clothes; and (b) the upcoming election in November, where (anecdotally, at least ) candidate's fortunes are often decided by petrol pump prices …

ATB

Hi beardozer,

…" What's worrying me is the 80% reduction in the insect population. What happens when it drops another 80%?…"

Things probably get v difficult ! I've seen the bee transporters in California's Central Valley that move bees /beehives around so that trees can propagate successfully, not sure what the workaround is if the bee population crashes.....;-<

Neonicotinoids, used by Big Agriculture, seem to be the main problem there.

On the other hand - and maybe we should have some good news for the weekend - some re-wilding IS successful, see this uplifting short film about how reintroduction of wolves into Yellowstone Park transformed the local ecosystem...and eventually changed the course of rivers...
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3776154

ATB
PS Pleased to report that the 'processionary caterpillar' trap has worked well to date. The more cavalier locals just blast the cocoons in situ in the pine trees with their shotguns...

Hi simonthezealot,

…"NOW you can all see what I have been repeating over and over and over again!!!!!!…"

You really ARE a one-trick pony : first you were concerned (for our sakes) at a last year RNS , from which you concluded that ZIOC was low on cash ('No sh**, Sherlock'); then you made the (for you, belated) discovery that ZIOC was BVI-registered (shock ! horror !); now you've turned on the TV and seen that there's a coronavirus thingy doing the rounds...and the end of the world is nigh....

All you've been doing is repeating your concern, latching on to whatever latest issue suits your book. That's almost a classic description of confirmation bias.

I note that you're also repeating yourself re my (seasonal, passing ) interest in olives; here's some more 'grist for the mill', since you appear to get some kind of vicarious thrill from 'personalizing' our exchange : since then , amongst other things, I've retrofitted a 60m2 roof + supporting structure at a local dog shelter; appeared as 'expert witness' in legal proceedings against another dog charity; installed various home improvements for a disabled neighbour; discovered a newly-opened nearby restaurant with a Michelin-starred chef who's 'gone native'; run a local half-marathon for the 5th time, recording a PB; devised and installed a trap for 'processionary caterpillars'; and am now caught up in the cycle of seasonal work around the property : weed-whacking (which is more descriptive than the genteel UK 'strimming'); running repairs and maintenance (pool, brickwork, sauna, metalwork, etc).
All against the backdrop of an increasingly demanding (and occasionally discouraging) training programme for a full marathon I hope to run in a few months' time. For a charity that is close to home, as it happens, Alzheimer's Research.

There you are : a few more topics for you to get vicarious pleasure from thinking about, while the rest of us actually have a life.

ATB

Hi CaptainSwag,

.."I was in florence and there were lots and I mean lots of chinese people. …"

There are allegedly a lot of Chinese working in the Italian fashion sector, making in 'sweatshops' the full range of 'Italian' prestige shoes, scarfs and hand-bags that the Chinese won't buy at home, because they might be counterfeit.....

Or so I'm told , by a friend in the fashion sector.....exploiter, not exploitee, I should add.
I suppose it's some kind of karmic justice.

ATB

And you've been here recounting your experience for the last 8 months...... I shudder to think what your 'show and tell' holiday snapshots sharing must be like :->

ATB

Hi simonthezealot,

OK, it's my lunchtime break, so I'll bite !

…" Extrader. The man who talks a good game [ if I valued your opinion, I suppose I should thank you for this assessment] but delivers absolutely no results on here [ bizarre understanding : that a shareholder/PI posting on a BB could/should be expected to DELIVER anything ] and hence [ basic logical fallacy of 'undistributed middle ' - see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy_of_the_undistributed_middle] why the SP is falling. …"

Simon, come back when you've taken these points on board....

ATB

HI FSA15,

Good question ! It'll likely have been dropping from what's available for you to see in the annual report and accounts, because we've been told that some management costs are /will be being paid in shares (so cash costs go down), etc.

To be on the safe side - since it's obviously something that interests you - suggest you give Andrew Trahar a call and get the answer from the horse's mouth, rather than rely on anonymous and unaccountable 3rd parties ?

HTH

Hi 2020zioc,

…"could this be a sell/buy between companies with same owner, or what do you think ? would it be OK to do such a trade for a companies with same owners as they are actually interfering with the bid/ask price?..."

Can't see a problem, myself : in principle (save that the amount is larger...and therefore the bid/offer strike price likely closer) it's no different from when you or I do a 'bed-and-ISA', selling from a standard account and repurchasing shortly later the same/similar amount of shares....

HTH and ATB

Hi all - esp. simon the zealot,

Mildly interesting RNS from 'connected' company NCCL : they've been informed by their local agent ("Geneva Management Group " ) that they've changed THEIR BVI address, too......and to the same as ZIOC's...

ATB

Hi beardozer,

Thanks for the thought : for the avoidance of doubt, I'm not trying to talk ZIOC up...or down : just provide an alternative viewpoint to whatever seems excessively 'pumpy' or 'dumpy'. Things are rarely as good - or as bad - as they seem...

Glad to see you share my enthusiasm for Voltaire, you've got to like the spirit of someone who can come up with gems like these :
- '“Behind every successful man stands a surprised mother-in-law.” ….
- “I have chosen to be happy because it is good for my health.”
and …
- “Now, now my good man, this is no time to be making enemies."
(Voltaire on his deathbed in response to a priest asking him that he renounce Satan.)

Apols to others for the OT, I guess outside trading hours it's OK.

ATB

Hi all,

Here's an excerpt from John Mauldin's latest missive. Mauldin is usually characterized as a 'perma-bear', the sort of person who predicts 8 of the last 3 recessions, etc...

His take on the 'coronavirus effect' (leaving aside the personal tragedies ) ?

.."We should also understand something else about the recovery. It’s tough to administer stimulus policies to areas that are in military lockdown. But the moment this virus is under control, China will likely go into the greatest stimulus campaign of the century. I know that’s saying a lot. It will impact global markets. It won’t surprise me to see the Fed proactively cut rates and for the ECB and other central banks to inject even more liquidity. As they say, stay tuned…"

Whether China's forecast pump-priming will be exclusively domestic or will extend to its international objectives remains to be seen, if the forecast holds that should be good for the price of commodities (ie iron ore generally) …..and may be a positive for the Zanaga project specifically.

'Every cloud...' etc

ATB

Me again,

Re my point (3), I don't have to hand the figs for China, but this link (which covers projected India demand - another big 'sinner') makes the point : coal is projected to decline as a %age, but rise in absolute terms.

Lies, damned lies...and 'statistics' , eh ?

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42555

ATB

Hi Longlad,

Thanks for this.

(1) 'Consider the source ' : The IEEFA 's mission statement reads : "Accelerating the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy ";

(2) The article quotes Africa Development Bank : "In September 2019, African Development Bank (AfDB) president Akinwumi Adesina stated, “Coal is the past, renewable energy is the future. For us at the African Development Bank, we are getting out of coal.”
AfDB clearly hasn't spoken to NCCL's 17% key shareholder, Africa Finance Corporation.

(3) For all the talk about a pivot to renewables (and certainly solar makes sense where there's no grid network - perhaps that's why NCCL is investing there ? ;->), China itself CURRENTLY gets 65% of its energy demand met by COAL ….and is projected by its own parastatals STILL to be meeting 35 % of (presumably MUCH higher) energy demand as far out as 2050....ie in absolute terms almost certain to be burning significantly more COAL in 30 years' time than it is today.

(4) The article is 'talking its book' : it claims that coal isn't the best solution for dealing with the intermittency question (when the sun don't shine), with the curious, circular and self-serving argument that ' coal does not readily complement the INEVITABLY renewables-dependent power systems of the near future '.
Maybe not. But GAS (powering turbines ) does / would...and there's no shortage of gas prospectively in East Africa....

Upsum : Coal has its detractors, fair enough. But the realities of life, economics, politics etc suggest it still has a significant role to play in 'getting us from here to there', to paraphrase the Irish joke. To suggest otherwise is, frankly , downright immoral in my view.

Maybe Greta should go out to Moz and explain to the locals why they should forgo their chance to improve their lifestyles ?

ATB

Hi atg,

Thanks for the link.
Key takeaways, for me (assuming reliability, see below)
- quays will reduce time spent in ' the roads' by conventional ships from current 3 weeks to negligible and container vessels from 2 weeks to 'immediate unloading';
- water depths range from 12.5 m to 15 m;
- further works planned (I think this may be the cranes ?) in H2 2020, thanks to a Euro 70m grant from France's Africa Development Fund.

The source , al wihda, appears to be a news agency in (land-locked) Chad, one wonders why they've picked up on this and not one of the more regular players ? With Nguesso due to visit the port from 17th Feb, maybe the local press will have more to say ?

ATB

Hi simonthezealot,

We can go from Twain's 'The only certainties in life are death and taxes [Ed.: and there are work-arounds for the latter ] ' through Rumsfeld's 'known unknowns' and anywhere in between.

Most things in life involve risk, the trade-offs are likelihood vs. impact :
Is expropriation (the extreme case) by C-B likely ? No, in my opinion.
What would expropriation impact be ? High, in my opinion.
Hope that answers your question.

There are a lot of other risks associated with living, some more likely than others : consider the poor sod sitting quietly in his flat in Spain a few weeks ago, when an explosion in a chemicals factory 3Km away flung a lump of metal crashing into his building, killing him. At the far end of the likelihood/impact spectrum, I would suggest. Stuff happens....

Here's something you might find useful whilst you look for 'safer harbours : https://www.nationwide.co.uk/guides/looking-after-your-money/guide-to-investing/understanding-risk

The olive harvest was modest this year, only 340 Kg = about 70 lt of extra virgin, biological for family and friends. Hard work (no mechanical assist), but satisfying. Good of you to ask.

Voltaire was right - 'Doubt is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is a ridiculous one.' And , for present purposes , perhaps more appropriately '“Judge a man by his questions rather than by his answers.”

ATB