Member Info for extrader

Most things in life aren't 'black or white' , they're the rather more challenging 'grey', which is a bit more challenging to deal with.

So it's always good to get something showing the marvellous complexity of life.

Here's one I had occasion to use earlier today :

https://www.rd.com/article/adjective-order-rules/

I've been following these rules for 60+ years and never knew it !

;->

http://aeabc.org/china-to-expedite-simandou-iron-ore-mine-project/

Ivan's comment that Simandou is a 'Pilbara killer' may be on the money, but it's not straightforward :

.. mining operations at Simandou require substantial investments to say the least and investors know very well that as soon as production begins, prices will fall. The Guinean government keeps 15% in both ventures but the fact that so many international partners are involved adds complexity to the situation since not all partners might be looking in the same direction.

Furthermore, the feasibility study estimates that average production cost at Simandou to be in the range of USD 35 to 30 per tonne compared to USD 15 to 20 for Pilbara, making Simandou vulnerable in case of a price war. From the groundbreaking to production, the cycle might take at least 5 to 8 years; this long period before seeing any revenue makes some investors understandably hesitant..."

Let's see what ZIOC's revised costings come in at ;->
Meanwhile , C-B 's back in rights are 'only' 10%; and Zanaga has a much simpler ownership structure.

.."- "At the date of this statement there are €555m of client companies ready to be served / for execution. We expect a significant proportion of these to be monetised once Inventory Funding has been secured.".."

You don't include the date of the statement, but the good news is that 'Gross origination' has risen to Euro 2.4bn as at 31/3/21.

The less good news is that in the 1/4/21 RNS there's a footnote :

[1] "Gross origination" includes all client companies that have signed an NDA, a term sheet, or are in, or have completed, the onboarding process. For clarity, the gross origination also includes commercial opportunities postponed or lost/ not eligible.

SYME has since been asked for a breakdown of the different statuses and has declined to provide, saying it will make this info available in due course - its HI 2021 results, IIRC.

So much for 'clarity'. And including 'opportunities postponed and/or lost' might be considered 'courageous' (copyright : Yes, Minister).

I think it's reasonable and realistic to say that there's a 'material uncertainty' to the initial assumption in your calculations.

IMO

.."Are you referring to Harry the Count of Montecito?."

Oops ! Maybe I'm getting confused with the Prince of Bel-Air.

Never mind his immigration status, the fun one must be his fiscal position : does the ex-colony recognise sovereign immunity ? Does said immunity extend to those who've voluntarily stepped aside ?

These are weighty constitutional issues that deserve our serious consideration ;-> !

My favourite story - I haven't been able to confirm, I recall it was in an old Private Eye - concerns the Qatari Royal family, heavily involved in horse-racing (amongst all their other UK investments - Harrods, the Shard, Barclays, a great swathe of London and other property etc). Some of the equestrian investments reportedly require British nationality (?).
Not a problem : several Qatari royals have British passports ' allegedly'.
Presumably 'just in case; to be sure to be sure'.

Coming vaguely back 'on topic', the Qatari Investment Authority vote was what swung things Ivan's way in its merger-that-turned-into a takeover of Xstrata and hence its involvement in Zanaga alongside ZIOC; the Qataris -along with the Polish Kulczyk family - were early backers of Lloyd Pengilly's QKR Corp, which attempted various mining projects in Africa; (Pengilly and his exJP Morgan pals were early stakeholders in ZIOC - Seritza et al , IIRC ) ; Pengilly and Kulczyk ended up in Ncondezi (NCCL), where Pengilly's son Hanno is CEO; and - completing the circle - I believe AT and Hanno used to be mates, at least back in their salad days....

6 degrees of separation, eh ?

Apols for a weekend O/T meander...

.."CF said the in specie divi would be on a one for one basis, ie., one share in the new company for every share you held in ORPH. .."

Share unit for share unit makes no sense - share %age for share %age, which is also ' 1 for 1' does.

Not every spin-off will want or need 666m shares, which is the only way your interpretation works.

Giving me 0.1% of newco to match my (imaginary) 0.1% in ORPH does.

IMO

.."Having said that, I thought the USA was still barring entry to non-US citizens?.."

Let me check with my mate , Harry Windsor ;->

With UAE on the red list, alongside South Africa and even (DR) Congo, AT must be running out of places to stay.
Unless he's got a US passport, of course ?

And there may be 'business travel' exceptions....

Not disagreeing with the basic thesis, but is this factually correct :

.."Firstly they would have needed to notify the market as he purchased more shares and went through thresholds over weeks of buying..."

My understanding was that you only had to notify the market once the order had been completed...precisely to try and avoid having the price run away from you.

Clarification welcome, for my general education !

FWLIW, I phoned AT this am, to check in. Got his voicemail, just asked if all was OK ? and that folk were getting a little antsy about the missed (self-imposed) deadline. If still in Dubai, 'enjoy the weekend'.

No reply as of now.

Thanks for this !
He's probably too modest to suggest it himself, but Trader_3's 'what we can expect' pipeline of opportunities is also pretty useful, IMO.

To be fair, SYME MAY be able to continue/complete its Due Diligence on Trade Flow because it'll largely be relying on historic, already independently verified documents, if the Fund structure is anything to go by :
- Custodian Electronic Title docs : Bolero, UK
- Fund Admin : Apex, DIFC, Dubai
- Legal Advisors : Walkers, DIFC, Dubai
- Auditors : Deloittes & Touche, Cayman Islands.

Presumably the management co's own accounts and other corporate documentation are filed at the equivalent of Companies House, in Singapore.

.."Credit rating jumped so accounts are good..."

The only accounts published post RTO are the audited 2019, which raised 'going concern ' issues in the forward -looking statement. Unless SYME is sharing with analysts something it's not sharing with its shareholders ?

The timing of some news is random and outside his control, but I would expect Cathal " Choreographer" Friel to have some discretion over the timing of (1) 'actionable' news re 1st spin-out (2) 'general' news re 2nd spin-out and (3) release of 2020 financials...and maybe some other stuff, re DIM, for example...

:->

.."Also slow legal procedures does not equate to poor legal outcomes/decisions."

If you're settling for a crappy 4-5% on your money for having it tied up 3 years, you don't want any doubt or delay : you've shown that your priority is 'return OF capital' rather than 'return ON capital'.

Contrast with TF funders who've been getting 5.5% pa (apparently); on money they can pull after max 90 days; and where TF has physical as well as paper ownership of the underlying security

Where would you rather put YOUR money ?

You're welcome ! This was mainly a PR job, IMO, as reflected in the Q's, rather than the dirty business of how do we actually make money for our shareholders....

But doing something constructive with a hitherto dormant/stranded asset that was potentially a big emissions-reducer might be another bone to throw at the ESG lobby....

It's worth reminding ourselves that the 'good' isn't the enemy of 'the best' : there's a need to manage the transition !

See the wrangling in Brussels right now over a 'green policy' : can they still look at natural gas (as Poland wants : 'it's better than coal' ) and nuclear (as France wants : 'it's better than solar/wind with intermittency issues') ?

Ivan could really milk this if he put his mind to it .

IMO

Hosted - audio only - by Tony Heyward , Chair , and Ivan (retiring CEO).
Overview by Tony re 2020 outcome and more detailed run-through by Ivan (who basically read out the content of the slides).
Tony (who answered all the Q's) keen to burnish GLEN's environmental credentials, saying GLEN was [ ed.: so far] alone amongst its peers in committing to net zero Scope 3 by 2050, in line with Paris agreement.

Questions were on climate (x4); labour rights; and remuneration policy. Tony smooched everyone, welcoming the opportunity to engage.

One questioner asked about 'nationalisation risk' in an environment where everyone would be scrambling for 'green commodities - Cu, Ni, Cob, Zinc - etc.

Heyward's reply was an interesting 2-parter :

(1) crude nationalisation ? "generally, we see that as behind us ";

(2) " we see an increased risk of host govts wanting an increased share of the 'rent'" : as an example, he then referred to an Oz exPM proposal to introduce a windfall tax on IRON ORE
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/01/28/mining-super-profits-tax/.

Tony wrapped up with praise for outgoing CEO Ivan's positioning the Company for the future and reminding everyone of his mantra of 'value over volume'.

E & OE, HTH

.."Slow legal deals does not slow payments for signed and sealed deals using blockchain and token technology...the fasted and must secure payment system the world has ever created!"

No, when things are going well, they speed things up. That's part of the attraction.

But when things go awry and there's a commercial disagreement, a microchip doesn't decide who's right, a human being (or several) and a legal system does.

I'm surprised that you don't appear to understand that.

.."Italy’s snail-paced legal system has long ranked as one of the slowest in the EU, and has been blamed by economists as a factor in pushing away foreign investors. The average time to enforce a commercial contract in Italy stands at more than 1,100 days, according to the World Bank — almost double the average time in Germany, France and Spain..."

This underscores the enforcement risk inherent in SYME's Inventory Monetisation model, where - regardless of the de jure position - the funder's ultimate security/source of repayment remains de facto in the hands of the underlying business....and hence exposed to 'systematic delay', extreme in the case of Italy.

There's a common sense reason for the saying :"Possession is 9/10ths of the law..."

As an Italian, AZ will presumably be more aware than most of this potential vulnerability in IM, which makes the attractiveness of TF all the greater.

IMO

.."We don't even know if TF sell the goods to the end user for a profit..."

Their business/security model appears based on back-to-back or transferable Letters of Credit , where TF inserts itself as 'honest broker' in a pre-existing commercial transaction.
If it didn't stand to make a profit, it wouldn't do it.

Simples.

https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-soars-to-ten-year-high-on-improving-steel-margins-and-disappointing-output/

“Not all that much is going in the right direction from a bottom-up basis for Rio Tinto as they continue to tackle the various challenges at their operations and projects, but main commodities IRON ORE [my caps] and aluminum are both benefiting from the China DECARBONISATION THEME,” Broda said...."

Time to polish that green halo, Ivan !

Hi Sidneysideline,

Great minds.....I thought to have a look at vols of 'round number' sells , but as non-premium couldn't go back very far - so thanks for this !
Not enough for a plutocrat, surely, but could be' life-changing' to folk from the 'other ranks'.

Interesting.