Member Info for extrader

Why should they ?

GLEN picked up Zanaga as an incidental when it took over Xstrata.
Tthe iron ore market - along with other commodities more critical to GLEN went into a slump almost immediately after takeover - and the iron ore assets likely largely written down.
Ivan has always been agin 'greenfield projects.
As the markets have picked up and iron prices soared - he's had to stand by and watch his competitors make record profits from the iron ore assets that he's ignored.

Perfectly understandable, I'd say , that GLEN might have wished to downplay this part of its portfolio.
Until now.
When a lot of headwinds have abated and we may be witnessing tailwinds......

As Keynes remarked 'When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir ?'

IMO

We've got GLEN pre AGM webcast tomorrow and the AGM itself on the 29th.
If there's no material news by then from either co, I'd be surprised.

Whether I'd be 'surprised and delighted' or just 'surprised' remains to be seen !

ATB

Hi G_G_G,

.." (1) if there's nothing going on (2) they're best to sell as many shares as possible now so the company can keep the lights on for longer. .."

There's a lot of permutations there !

(1) (a) Short term prospects bad, long term good; (b) short term bad, long term bad; (c) short term good, long term bad; (d) short term good, long term good......

and then, whatever view you take of the above

(2) there's a trade-off between (a) time ; (b) s/price = cash raised; and (c) shares issued = dilution.

I don't have a feel for (a) what time horizon (if any) ZIOC is working to; or (b) what its cash position / needs are likely to be . We may know more shortly.

OTOH, we DO know (c) their evident and oft-stated priority to avoid unnecessary dilution.

If cash was the priority, I'd have expected ZIOC to want to maximise the 'bang for their buck' and to have been talking the share price up in recent months, with lots of 'feelgood factor' messaging. Instead, we've had radio silence : the last (re)tweet - on iron ore prices- was 4 months ago.

Meanwhile, they've studiously avoided ANY reference to what we here all consider bullish - but maybe 'sensitive' factors - China /Oz, macro-economics, commodities supercycle, favourable emissions , progress on IMF, Ivan stepping down at GLEN etc.

I'm not smart enough to work out how best to interpret this many variables , so will wait for the news that will hopefully make things clearer.

HTH

From today's https://www.lesdepechesdebrazzaville.fr/, talking about PN SEZ

Mentions iron ore ( = Zanaga and others) and potash ( = Kore KP2), also 'potassium carbonate' (?) - used in making soap, glass and Chinese noodles, apparently......

"...The government is keen to make the project a reality.
The Congolese head of state, during his investiture on April 16, reiterated his commitment to develop the SEZs, especially that of Pointe-Noire.
The Pointe-Noire SEZ, which is likely to expand, currently covers an area of ??around 27,900 hectares, or 27
km2. . Given the many advantages, in terms of location, availability of raw materials and other production factors, the said area is well placed to support ongoing industrialization initiatives undertaken by the government.
It should provide the necessary infrastructure and other facilities, as well as essential services to strengthen the industrial base in the country.
Once in service, it is expected that the study area will stimulate the value-added manufacturing activities using abundant raw materials (iron ores, petroleum, other mineral salts, such as potassium carbonate, phosphate, etc.) available in the Pointe-Noire region and its surroundings.
In addition, natural and mineral resources are perceived as key areas of intervention intended to establish a
base for this target area to emerge as an industrial hub.
The vision of the SEZ initiative in the region of Pointe-Noire is to develop an industrial zone integrated into international standards export-oriented businesses and facilitating the expansion of basic products and services, increasing local trade and strengthening foreign investments, all intended to achieve sustainable development ...."

Same-oh, same-oh....

Re theory that..."the recosting delay is to allow shard to find a home for the shares prior to releasing news. ..."

or - heaven forfend - that the delay is to allow a few folk to get on board, before the train departs....The volumes we're seeing might be loose change to a bent politician (whether 'here or there', in fact), but could be 'life-changing' for ordinary mortals....

Damn ! I must be channeling my 'inner minor miner'.....

;->

PS yesterday's 2 x 'sells' at 16:04: 19 and 16:04: 35 for £ 19,950 and £ 20,000 , for example, I'm pretty certain are in fact a 'bed and isa', ie a sale and subsequent (re) purchase.

The other , larger amounts, appear only on the 'sell' side AFAICS, hence the Q : are they in fact 'buys' through Shard ?

'There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza...'

I thought about 'bed and isa', but don't they normally show as a sell and then a buy (ie reflecting the legal/accounting reality) ?
With a slightly different, super narrow (atypical for ZIOC !) spread, reflecting the in-house , limited market risk nature of the deal .......
In this case, I see the 'sells', where are the 'buys', which I understood were in a legally distinct vehicle (AIUI) .

What am I missing ?
No frivolous replies, please !

;->

From today's https://www.lesdepechesdebrazzaville.fr/, talking about PN SEZ

Mentions iron ore ( = Zanaga and others) and potash ( = Kore KP2), also 'potassium carbonate' (?) - used in making soap, glass and Chinese noodles, apparently......

"...The government is keen to make the project a reality.
The Congolese head of state, during his investiture on April 16, reiterated his commitment to develop the SEZs, especially that of Pointe-Noire.
The Pointe-Noire SEZ, which is likely to expand, currently covers an area of ??around 27,900 hectares, or 27
km2. . Given the many advantages, in terms of location, availability of raw materials and other production factors, the said area is well placed to support ongoing industrialization initiatives undertaken by the government.
It should provide the necessary infrastructure and other facilities, as well as essential services to strengthen the industrial base in the country.
Once in service, it is expected that the study area will stimulate the value-added manufacturing activities using abundant raw materials (iron ores, petroleum, other mineral salts, such as potassium carbonate, phosphate, etc.) available in the Pointe-Noire region and its surroundings.
In addition, natural and mineral resources are perceived as key areas of intervention intended to establish a
base for this target area to emerge as an industrial hub.
The vision of the SEZ initiative in the region of Pointe-Noire is to develop an industrial zone integrated into international standards export-oriented businesses and facilitating the expansion of basic products and services, increasing local trade and strengthening foreign investments, all intended to achieve sustainable development ...."

Same-oh, same-oh....

Must admit that I'm not 100% sure how any shares that Shard places with subscribers are reported here (leaving aside the oversimplification of allocation to buy/sell that the algortihms use) :

Once the 7m shares are allocated to Shard (and duly reported as 'increase in shares in issue'), I assume that they're kind of like shares in Treasury.

So, when Shard , as a full-service broker, 'sells' shares - that raise cash for ZIOC (ie proceeds don't go to another broker/end-buyer) - are they reported as 'sells' ...or as 'buys' ?

What are these round numbers we're seeing - 100,000, 300, 000, 400,000, etc ?

I'd obviously like to think they're all 'informed buys' - but really don't know.

Can anyone clarify ? preferably with supporting evidence.

TIA

MM and one or two others of his group did useful research and had insights into stuff - from source Chinese media, for instance - that were undoubtedly an asset.

Unfortunately, this goodwill was IMO subsequently lost in a complete inability and unwillingness ever to see the downside, to the extent of editing out points that weren't supportive of his/their relentlessly positive point of view.

His 'join the dots....boom!' attitude eventually wore thin. Especially when - as so often seen - events didn't subsequently follow his breathless timetable.

" Some people might say that ZIOC's overdue news update is being held back for Ivan and Gary's double-act at the GLEN AGM next week, for maximum possible impact......I, for one , couldn't possibly comment...."

You know what they say about stopped clocks ?

;->

Today's depeches de brazzaville carries Nguesso's inauguration speech. Notable extract :

.."During the speech he gave, Friday April 16, on the occasion of his nomination for a new five-year term, the president
of the Republic, Denis Sassou N’Guesso, made the solemn commitment : "To fight against bad behaviour ??in administration and public bodies ”.
Such 'bad behaviours' as, among others, "Embezzlement of public funds, illicit enrichment and favoritism ”.
N’Guesso promised "zero tolerance" and warned: "I'll be watching ".

Another box ticked , then.
Meanwhile, France has extended a moratorium on bilateral debt through to 30 June 2021, in line with Paris Club proposals.

.." I suspect that they still own a majority and a shareholder vote would be easily carried / won..."

Well, over the last few years, we've certainly seen a number of 'founder shareholders and friends' drop below the discloseable 3% - but often only to 2.99% - who are likely still lurking and 'on side' with whatever Elphick and Howarth agree.

And- AIUI - if NewCo were to offer 20% shares for £ 20m, it would have an implied value ie MarketCap of £ 100m, of which £ 10m was cash in bank and £ 90m was the 'implied value' of the Intellectual Property.

As the cash was spent, one would hope the 'implicit' would become 'explicit' (why can't I say 'explied' ? ) value .
English is a difficult language !

In which case the Market Cap (and the value of your shares) would go up.

But likely only some way down the road...and, as Bronxville says, probably after further fund-raising, which you could elect to take part in or not, depending on its prospects, your personal circumstances , etc etc.

IMO

After all this time, I think most of us will be over the moon if we get ONE bid !
But maybe it'll be like buses.......

;->

Would it make a difference , in any case?
If GLEN has a deal ; offers it to ZIOC; and ZIOC don't accept, where does that leave us ?

.."Do these clowns even realise how long mergers and takeovers take??!!.."

Fair point : why did SYME feel the need to RNS something they could have kept schtum about until things were much further advanced ?

Sorry, not sure, tbh.

Good recovery from your reverse ferret, Steve.
Keep it up , you might get something right once.

Incidentally, that presentation confirms that ZIOC as promoter 'seeded' the project with an investment of approx US$ 21 million up to IPO, at which point they more than got their money back with the Director Placing that ran concurrently.

Worth bearing in mind : Elphick and Co have 'skin in the game', sure, but it's also basically a free ride.
Which might influence how 'hungry' they are to extract the absolute best price they can (if things go that way).

HTH

I think you'll find this is covered by 'tag along rights' , an issue that was summarised best on 20 Dec 2020 by 99icecream, thusly :
.."In the agreement governing the rights of the shareholders of Jumelles:

Xstrata (now Glencore) has the right of first refusal if Zanaga wishes to sell (i.e. it can match any offer that Zanaga might want to accept.

Zanaga has the tag along rights (i.e. the third party must pay Zanaga the same price as Glencore gets for its shares.

This is why Zanaga will let Glencore do all the running of any sale process rather than try to sell its own share seperately..."

There are several other contributions on the topic that flesh it out a bit more.

HTH
PS Whilst looking in vain on the website for 'chapter and verse *' , I found this presentation , which covers the genesis
and is more comprehensive than most subsequent ones :
https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Announcement_Xstrata_option_exercise.pdf

Management background and experience of/involvement with Simandou is interesting.....as is the Steinmetz connection , via a NED.

PPS * the IPO Prospectus doesn't seem accessible from the website, does anyone have a copy, pls ?