Member Info for extrader

.."The SP fell to what 0.048p (ish) last August and had that meteoric rise to 0.8p that same month and its been a volatile journey since off the back of promises and half truths.."

That rise coincided with the 'availability' of 5.8 billion tradeable shares (thanks to 1AF2's loans for pledged shares deal) and some helpful newsflow :

SYME 's share price rose significantly during the one month drawdown period (late July to late August) , on the back of

- bullish trading update 27th July;

- M East MoU announced 10th Aug;

- AZ/OG acquiring ('direct transfer to custody account') a 4.98% shareholding from Ceresio SIM (18th Aug);

- DW's 'long term purchase' of 220 million shares (21 Aug) that he unwound with a sale of 295 million shares - needed to cover [entirely foreseen/foreseeable] 'listing costs' - a bare 5 weeks later, on 25th Sept.

-AZ/OG acquisition of 660m shares ('direct transfer to custody account') 28 Aug.

after which , the s/p has gone sideways/downhill pretty much ever since.

And yet nobody has the cojones to ask AZ (a) what he was thinking of when he agreed that 'sweetheart deal' (for the lenders) or (b) wearing his 1AF2/TAG hat, where those 5,800,000, 000 shares are now.

'If you have to ask, there's a fair chance you're not going to like the answer'.

IMO

.."The question has been asked and I too have thought about why TradeFlow would allow / want an acquisition with Syme from the point of view that they are already up and running and we despite potential are not..."

Great post ...and one that goes some way to explaining what might be the attraction to TF.

But they'll be doing THEIR due diligence on SYME , too, surely - and will need to see 'proof of cash' , never mind 'proof of concept'.

I think TF makes a lot more on their transactions than 0.5%, btw, for reasons already explained..

Anyway, we should learn more ere long.

ATB

.."Another momentum killer RNS by CF "the puppet master" keeping a lid on things yet again. :)
Another six weeks of guessing to ensue..."

During which there's a good chance you'll have the 2020 financials (with forward-looking statement , post-report date developments etc) and whatever other contract wins we can look forward to.....Wouldn't be surprised to see some II (or maybe Chinese) interest either.

IMO

IMO

Recordd ate is 'to be determined' , see

.." The distribution in specie of the entire issued share capital of ORPH Pharma IP by the Company to Newco will be in return for Newco allotting and issuing Newco Ordinary Shares to Open Orphan Shareholders who are registered on the Open Orphan register of members at the specified demerger record date at a time and date to be determined by the Company and notified to the Shareholders in due course, on the basis of the determined Ratio (save that fractions of a Newco Ordinary Share will not be issued)..."

HTH

Thanks for this - AIUI, an NPV calculation only kicked in where Xstrata / GLEN wished to acquire ZIOC within 90 days of FS...and ZIOC didn't agree the offered price.

That didn't happen, so technician is partly right - "if we're sold to a 3rd party we can be bought for whatever Glencore and our BOD agree to sell us for " and 99icecream is also right , aka 'tag-along rights' - .."If Glencore sell their stake in Jumelles, ZIOC has the right to join the sale at the same price. If ZIOC decides to sell to a 3rd party Glen has the right to buy ZIOC on the same terms."

IMO

It would make sense to buy ZIOC (from its point of view to eliminate tag-on-rights) and then have a 'clean' co that it could flip.

That would likely also be attractive to potential buyer as reducing possible 'conplications'.

We're passive investors in a minority stakeholder, all we can rely on is that (1) Elphick will look after his + mates' interest as best he can...and we'll get some benefit from that; and (2) GLEN won't sell out on the cheap...but will want its pound of flesh, too...

IMO

'...jowen, " I wondered if anyone had any realistic ideas of the SP by Christmas?"

Define : 'realistic'.

https://www.insider.com/super-gonorrhea-vaccine-developed-team-behind-astrazenecas-covid-19-shot-2021-3

Apparently Macron hasn't decided yet whether it should be available to the young or only the over 60's....

;->

.."I wondered if anyone had any realistic ideas of the SP by Christmas? .."

Why not start by sharing what YOU thought when you made the decision to invest £ 20,000 ?

Ah, the Grauniad !

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8414917/Guardian-accused-hypocrisy-backing-BLM-protests-despite-branding-Abraham-Lincoln-abhorrent.html

.."The paper, which was originally called the Manchester Guardian, was founded by John Edward Taylor in 1821 using profits from a cotton plantation that used slaves. During the US Civil War 40 years later, it sided with the southern Confederates against President Lincoln, who wanted slavery abolished..."

Says it all, really.

Thanks for this :

.."a purchase contract for the commodity from the supplier at a fixed price (on behalf of the end buyer) and an onward sales contract to the end buyer at a fixed price..."

and TF keeps any difference between the two, presumably.

Nice and tight.

Funnily enough, there's an ORPH tie-up :

Business incubator/commercialiser IP Group has 2.4% of HingeHealth ...and Elaine Sullivan as a NED on its board ....and she's also on ORPH's , since Nov 2020.

Small world .

Tying in with barwickman's link, here's another , for a US wearables company called HingeHealth, which basically uses the sensors in wearables to deliver accurate physiotherapy at home, to palliate/resolve musculoskeletal problems (back, shoulder, knee) that apparently affect up to 40 % of the US population.

Its business proposition is to offer major US corporates (eg Boeing) an employee benefit that (a) works and (b) saves the employer money...

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/hinge-health-eyes-ipo-after-raising-%24300-million-2021-01-06

Its January 2021 funding round gives an implied value to HH of $ 3 billion; its Feb 2020 funding round implied $ 428 million....

This is how HH puts it https://www.hingehealth.com/hinge-health-raises-series-d/

For the serial entrepreneur fans, it started out life as a 'patent miner' of Samsung's portfolio of patents; pivoted into 'memory foam' furniture' ; and appears to have struck gold at the third iteration.

I'll be watching HH's planned 2022 IPO with some interest - a family member has worked there for some time.

;->

TradeFlow looks to be a bit of an iceberg from a valuation perspective :

(1) The visible bit is the $ 40m funds under management that finance the period of 'inventory in transit', for which TF charges (a) a management fee of 1.5% pa, so $ 600K and (b) a 'success fee' of 15% on 'any increase in capital (highwatermark basis)'. It's not clear how what is basically a 'money market' fund (remember : 90 day redemption) would grow in capital value, unless (perhaps) it gets a slice of

(2) The 'out of sight' bit is whatever TF charges for its intermediary role : remember, it actually owns the goods and from what I've seen it appears that they're using transferable or back-to-back letters of credit in the process.
My guess - and it is a guess - is that TF is making a pretty turn as it inserts itself as interface/middleman and makes viable the connection between exporter and importer.

Suppose that exporter (a) has rice at cost 80 that it is willing to sell to importer (c) for 100, which importer/retailer plans to sell for 150. Traditional bank mechanisms , finance and procedures are slow and expensive (particularly as a %age of TF's typical $ 200K transaction size).
TF's highly automated structure enters at point (b) and addresses all of the above - making a perhaps otherwise uneconomic transaction viable.

What might that be worth ? At a guess 3-5% flat , taken from one side (a) or the other (c) - or maybe a bit from each, depending on strength of respective negotiating positions.....both sides are 'motivated' because the alternative is (likely) no deal at all.
TF has said that most deals are 60 to 90 days, ie 4-6 x per year, that would mean 12% to 30% pa on the $ 40m, say $ 4.8m to $ 12m.
This is gross income, not net, but still.....

If you put (1) management fee $ 600K on 15x = $ 9m and (2) intermediary fee, say net $ 5m on 10x , you get to about $ 60 m valuation for TF.

The big variable is (2)and could be materially overstated ( eg costs of 'inefficiencies'/ corruption at the chokepoint ports at either end). I've no idea.

But, funnily enough , 12.5 billion shares at 0.4p works out at around $ 70 million..
So maybe in the ballpark, if it is a plain vanilla acquisition.

All just a Sunday morning 'wild-assed guess'.

I seem to recall reading somewhere that the CDC in the States had some advance warning of where and how covid was progressing in the States (with attendant imminent need for hospital space , etc) from analysis of (hopefully anonymised) data from fitbit and similar wearables : a 'cluster' of unusual lower heart rates indicated an outbreak was imminent..

This 'data mining' is apparently quite common already : the CDC has known for some time about where flu outbreaks can be expected on the basis of the volume/location of google searches for keywords like 'flu symptoms ' etc.

So, Big Brother - for now supposedly anonymised - is already out there !
Let's hope that a balance between public and private interest can be maintained.

CF also made the point quite forcefully - twice - that generally speaking, covid 19 is pretty much a non-issue for the ‘skinnies’ eg Koreans, VietNamese, Africans etc and that it was the co-morbidities that were the aggravating factor.

In a sense, I’m talking against my own ORPH book here, but I wish gubmint would take on board that ‘an ounce of prevention...etc’.

Maybe a small payment for calories burned/ time in the training zone per week....as validated by an ORPH DiM wearable...would be a way forward ?

;->

.."the first spin offs will be the 'immune modulator' and 'PrepBiopharm' and I tend to agree..."

Esp given how CF rather laboured the point that with a subordinate 49% in Imutex, it was frustrating to have to go at SEEK's pace, whereas with 100% and 62% it was much easier....AIUI

with the rider that a couple of other things might be added in to make the 'package' a bit bigger...again , IIRC.

"If your the founder and ceo of a company........ assuming your not an egotistical person"...

Sounds like a contradiction in terms to me !

Groak's background is interesting.

He appears to have been CFO of Cogenpower at the time of its CVA and namechange to Monreal as a cash shell, prior to its RTO with Eight Capital . In post Sept 2015 to July 2018, before re-appearing at ECP in Jan 2019. He seems to be an alternate to John Treacy.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09301329/filing-history

Cont/...

GLEN is looking to invest MORE in DRC (for the minerals we want for our 'clean' cars and our mobile phones, etc) if it can.....which AFAICS is even more of a 'failed state' than C-B....

Most people aren't keen to think about the realities of a sausage-making factory, either.

;-<