Member Info for extrader

Which brings us neatly back to those memorable words

.."“N'interrompez jamais un ennemi qui est en train de faire une erreur.”.

Sound familiar?

.."Ex, I couldn’t possibly take that title away from you as you have held it for so long now..."

Carry on playing the man, Eddsy - see what I did there? - it's usually a pretty good 'tell' of the relative strength of someone's skill...or argument.

.."Once they pay off the remaining Riverfort balance .."

How much do you think that is, as a matter of interest?

The info made public is of a converted amount(s), that are a mix of P + I and which don't appear to tie in with either the details given re instalments, grace period or repayment date(s)...

In fact, it would be hard to be more unhelpful than HELD has been for anyone trying to keep track of their undertakings.

Maybe more effort should be spent on clarity of communication rather than PR?

AFAICS

Oh, looky there !

It turns out these things DO matter...

From yesterday's depeches

"SPORTS FACILITIES

The Alphonse- Massamba-Débat stadium under repair

The Alphonse Massamba Débat stadium hosted its last National League Championship on May 12. The sports complex is now closed for works. Its old artificial turf which no longer meets international standards will finally be replaced.

This is a political decision, as the President of the Republic we learnt, is himself opposed to the relocation of the Congo-Niger and Congo-Morroco matches, scheduled for Matchdays 3 and 4 of the World Cup 2026 in Kinshasa or Morocco.

The conditions are being created for the National Team to play June.

The technicians already in Brazzaville have begun work that could have been launched on Saturday if the

Congolese Football Federation had not obtained a waiver to complete the matches of the 23rd day of the national championship already scheduled at the facility.

Barring heavy rain, the technicians technicians will meet the deadline minimum of 14 days.

The condition of the pitch was one of the conditions for the removal of the Alphonse- Massamba Débat stadium from

the list of facilities approved for play by Fifa and CAF."

'Allez-y, les Diables Rouges!'

GLA

Some recent coverage re the above here :

https://www.theguardianpostcameroon.com/post/2864/en/

..'USD 10 Billion investment....5th largest project in the world....20,0000 jobs....Mineral terminal at Kribi, 125 mtpa..."

Also covered in depeches on 13th May, with more nuance

https://www.lesdepechesdebrazzaville.fr/

.." Launching the works, the Minister of State , Minister of Industries and Geology, Pierre Oba, reminded the audience that it was time to give a strong signal to all national and foreign operators to stop taking hostage to the Congo and Cameroon by placing them on the stock market for their own benefit. This while the two countries are reduced to waiting indefinitely , thus jeopardizing the realization of their ambitions.

"Mineral resources, like oil, must help reduce the gaps in social development across the national territory, that is the socio-economic and and cultural development of the Sangha region, which contains them underground. The iron reserves of the Nabeba deposit are of the order of one billion five hundred million tonnes, those of Avima one billion

four million tonnes, and Badondo, six hundred and seventy-nine one hundred and seventy-nine million tonnes. The annual annual production average is of 22 to 35 million tonnes for each project", emphasized the Minister of State.

According to him, the mega-project for the joint exploitation of cross-border iron ore deposits includes the Congo-Cameroon cross-border rail, the construction of the mine and its associated the steelworks, transport infrastructure including construction of the Badondo-Avima-Nabeba rail link, 149 km on Congolese territory and Mbalam to the port of Kribi, nearly 540 km on Cameroonian territory and, later on, the construction of the railroad linking the Sangha

department to Kouilou, some 1700 km long."

A bit incoherent, maybe the Chinese/Cameroon/Congo signalling ' we have options'...? The frustration re lack of progress is a fair point, even if largely self-inflicted.

AFAICS

Hi Eddsy,

If you want to act as self-appointed class monitor, you should enter the spirit of things and at least wear your own hat, with a big HMV on it.

Toodle-pip!

IMO

“N'interrompez jamais un ennemi qui est en train de faire une erreur.”

Hm. That didn't end particularly well for le petit caporal, did it ?

More apropos, surely, is this:

"I mistrust the judgment of every man in a case in which his own wishes are concerned"

Duke of Wellington

;->

Salut!

Whisper it not, but I've heard it said that Eddsy = MM 'alter ego'.

Certainly, the shared use of 'squirm, worm' is odd.

At the very least, it's a case of HMV, aka the monkey and the organ- grinder.

Remember the 'ZIOC twitter fanboy club' back in 2018...?

GLA

Oops!

https://twitter.com/LIYanChine/status/1788974720701890927

On LiYan's twitter feed, not his own - or his Ministry's. At an event held outside France for the 1st time in 100 years...and a day after Xi ended his visit to France.

"The #Minister of #international #cooperation of #Congo @ChristelSassou denounces #calumnies of "exploiting #natural #resources in #African #countries" against #China! "

'We all know that Africa needs infrastructure. China needs natural resources and raw materials. African countries often generate income from natural resource development to repay debts incurred by infrastructure construction.

This is not a gift, it is market-oriented business behaviour.

It's very important to explain this clearly : once this has been recognised, we'll have a deeper understanding of the China Africa Comprehensive Strategic Partnership'.

Seems to be part of his contribution to a symposium hosted by the PM.

https://gouvernement.cg/anatole-collinet-makosso-cloture-un-colloque-historique-sur-les-relations-sino-africaines-regards-croises-sur-le-developpement-et-la-cooperation/

Anatole Collinet MAKOSSO closes historic symposium on Sino-African relations: Perspectives on development and cooperation

The Académie des Sciences d'Outre-Mer, which organized its meeting outside France for the first time in its 100-year history, held this two-day event to examine China's prodigious development, not only on the African continent, but also on the global stage.

Panels led by distinguished speakers highlighted the role of Chinese cooperation in infrastructure development in Africa, a crucial element for any country aspiring to development. Also discussed were China's strategy in Southeast and South Asia, the transition from bilateralism to multilateralism, the global strategic partnership, etc. All the presentations made during the symposium will appear in a joint document.

In addition, the Academicians' program includes the decoration of the President of the Republic, Denis SASSOU-N'GUESSO, for the essence of his work.

Among other awards, the Head of State will receive the Académie's most prestigious medal, the BOURDARIE, named after the man who initiated the creation of the Académie des Sciences d'Outre-mer."

FWIW

GLA

Hi Kongolasse,

Bizarre is awfully close - in sound, geography and descriptiveness - to Brazzaville....

You're obv in the midst of 'fighting dragons' here, but it's the weekend and so I hope you (and others) won't mind the O/T : we don't appear to have heard from you on the ZIOC board since (?) July last year, I'd value your take on corporate and other developments since then.

TIA and ATB

Hi Jiving,

Thanks for adding a third scenario - some specific 'meat' to the rather general bone that I tossed out !

I wonder whether there's any 'right of first refusal/right of last refusal' in the Collahuasi J/V agreement ? That would put a pretty big spanner in the works for anyone wanting the jewel in AAL's crown...and IF GLEN could exercise, GLEN would itself in turn become even more of a target for 'strategic investors' in a copper-hungry world...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-demand-boom-new-technology-drives-power-consumption-trafigura-says-2024-04-22/

Everybody looks at renewables and EV's, but the power-hungry beasts, apparently, are the AI-related data-centres...

GLA and ATB

The BHP/AAL tussle could find imitators/competitors as the industry consolidates and is sometimes a sign of a 'top' in a sector - aka 'go mining on Wall Street' - you can buy production in a couple of years, whereas a mine can take decades.

I don't follow GLEN closely enough to know whether it is seriously interested in competing for AAL (or just wants to push BHP into paying more) and it seems to be a moot point whether it could actually afford to : it's pretty tied up at the moment with the 'bundling and unbundling' of Teck.

There also seems to be some suggestion that Ivan (at 9+%, GLEN's largest shareholder, just ahead of Qatar) may not be fully behind the 'coal repositioning' strategy ('coking yes/thermal no' , AIUI), which is -or may be- another wrinkle...

If GLEN did want to mount a bid, it could bolster its finances with an outright sale of its ZIOC stake.....OTOH, if it found itself on the RECEIVING end of a bid, it could be expected to point to its 'hidden value' in Zioc (and presumably others)...

who knows how this will ultimately play out?

Which only reinforces my contention that nothing we say on these boards ultimately matters, but perhaps how we conduct ourselves does.

GLA

Hi all,

My overall approach to investment can be summarised in the following :

(1)The Tenth Man Rule - Principle Explained - Insight Before Action

insightbeforeaction.com/the-tenth-man-rule-principle-explained/

."The 10th Man discipline is one in which the group designates at least one individual to act as a loyal dissenter. “Loyal” because their ultimate goal is to make the best option for the company. And, as the dissenter, they not only have the right but also the obligation to disagree and “poke holes” in the group’s assumptions..."

(2) https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1939/08/the-indispensable-opposition/653471/

.."“The opposition is indispensable. A good statesman, like any other sensible human being, always learns more from his opponents than from his fervent supporters. For his supporters will push him to disaster unless his opponents show him where the dangers are. So if he is wise he will often pray to be delivered from his friends, because they will ruin him. But, though it hurts, he ought also to pray never to be left without opponents; for they keep him on the path of reason and good sense.”

(3) If folk read something they don't like/welcome/agree with, they're welcome to refute (and we can have a civilized debate) or ignore...or put me on filter.

I myself generally don't put people on filter, because of (2) above, unless they're particularly vexatious.

(4) Re ZIOC specifically, the idea that anything said on a BB may influence the eventual outcome is , frankly, laughable. Some people - 'no names, no pack-drill' - are full of themselves.

We are an irrelevance...and have been for some time, as the absence of corporate 'smooching' shows. Short-term manipulation of the share price may be a factor for a company where takeout is linked - however remotely - to the prevailing share price (' the price offered for XYZ represents a ..%age premium to the prevailing/preceding /whatever share price'') but that isn't the case here. We're surely past the stage where 'pumping ' the share-price short-term to get a placing away might be a possibility. If anything, management is showing what can charitably be described as 'benign neglect'

(5) Over-arching : 'Life is too short to be small'.

There are probably others, but that's enough for now.

GLA and ATB

"So extrader is out then. Fair enough. Everyone has to make their own move.."

Sorry to say Vet 10, that you've made an assumption (I'm not sure on what basis)...and you know what they say about 'assume'.....

For the avoidance of doubt, I have a larger investment in ZIOC (both absolute and as a %age of my portfolio) now than I've ever had in the 6+ years that I've held.

It would be interesting if you were to ask the same question of some of the more 'vocal' commentators around...and (of course) got equally honest answers.

I'll leave it at that.

ATB

.."Reality is though there has been progress. They have a 1m EUR bank loan over 15 years at 3.5%. Thats significant.."

Reality is, they have a loan agreement and they expect to be able to access proceeds 'during mid-June'. Given the historically casual observance of deadlines and timeframes (Piraeus was announced 4 months ago - and assumed by you as 'imminent'), the Euro loan isn't 'significant' until HELD actually has the money in its hot little hands...and we discover what , if any, wrinkles it contains or strings are attached.

I would suggest.

GLA

Au contraire.

The encouraging last para reads :

.."Despite the current economic crisis, building the two dams mentioned above is a necessity if Congo really wants to diversify its economy, notably through industrialization within the SEZs. This will, however, require the mobilization of funding, particularly from financial partners such as the World Bank and the ADB...

It's a rare, but welcome admission that C-B needs international (not just Chinese) finance, even if it comes with strings and oversight.

If Washington is indeed in a 'hearts and minds' battle with China for influence in Africa (see Kenya Pres Ruto's upcoming visit to the US), this - or other investment - would be a good way to proceed.

www.barrons.com/news/biden-to-host-kenya-s-ruto-for-state-visit-in-may-white-h…

"US President Joe Biden will host his Kenyan counterpart William Ruto on May 23 for a state visit aimed at boosting ties with a key East African ally, the White House said Friday. Ruto, who will be accompanied by his wife Rachel, will be the first African leader to receive a state visit at the White House since Biden took office in 2021."

He'll also get to address Congress, on the 2 countries' 60th anniversary (coincidentally, like China / C-B).

Maybe too little , too late for Biden/the US, but shows that they're aware that they're losing ground.

.."I look forward to bringing them up with Elphick and Knauth..."

I've no feel for Knauth, but Elphick strikes me as a straight shooter who will, if anything, be embarrassed by this.

Hence my concluding observation

" And unfortunate timing, to say the least."

Thanks for Eddsy for highlighting the key phrase :

.."The FCA noted that Shard Capital contacted the regulator about the matter last year after discovering the existence of several documents “as a result of evidence disclosed by another party in court proceedings.."

So something that Shard's internal controls should have picked up in December 2019 (did they or didn't they ? - either way, not a good look - and what about those dealings from 2015-2017?) is made public (ie readily discoverable by the authorities) and Shard (aware of the original enquiry re 2015-2017) then contacts said authorities .

I believe that that's usually described as asking for 'other offences to be taken into consideration." aka 'managing reputational risk'.

The FCA then agrees a discount on the fine and chalks up a (for it, rare) win.

Misleading the auditors AND misleading the customers? Where does that leave Internal Audit and the Relationship Manager(s) throughout these events?

I no longer subscribe, but fully expect this to be covered in Private Eye ('In the City') at some point.

HTH

PS and from the original article, it appears there were other (later than 2019) irregularities...

.."In addition, between June and July 2021, he provided misleading information to a further client purporting that Shard held substantial sums on its behalf. However, that client’s entire cash balance had previously been transferred out of its account..."

Misleading the auditors AND misleading the customers? Where does that leave Internal Audit and the Relationship Manager(s) throughout these events?

Hmm.