Member Info for extrader

.."Does imminent in Italian mean something else 🙄.."

Great Q!

Take your pick :

.."Eminent is often used to describe someone or something that stands out above others in a noticeable way, while imminent is used to describe something that is about to happen very soon. Immanent, another adjective which is pronounced exactly the same as imminent is defined as “being within the limits of possible experience or knowledge.”

ATB

Seb tweets

https://twitter.com/business/status/1785333561458864203

(1) Bloomberg

@business

Javier Milei notches a congressional win after Argentina’s lower house approves the privatization of some public companies and other key chapters of his omnibus reform bill

.....

(2) Seb : YPF judgment creditors initiate discovery of the oil & gas company's assets. They request Judge Preska to order YPF to produce documents that will prove that Argentina and YPF are the same (Alter Ego) so they can start seeking and attaching assets.

The filing includes some examples of egregious = corrupt expenditure by the Kirchners, payroll padding, political advertising etc...

Ho hum

If the Minister has misremembered Mitsubishi for Mitsui , the latter has an equity stake in Binding Solutions Ltd, the pelletising specialist where Trahar Senior (ex AngloAmerican CEO and then Chair) is a shareholder and was a Director for a while...

I believe that ZIOC did some work with them about 6 years ago

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZIOC/pellet-test-announcement-ivf3a91en5p15hw.html

https://bindingsolutions.uk/2022/03/03/binding-solutions-secures-equity-investment-from-leading-asian-

conglomerate-2/

BSL's 2 most recent news shows they're progressing their cold pelletization technology at pace.

These are the other shareholders

https://bindingsolutions.uk/about-us/#strategic-partners

The largest shareholding is an opaque offshore co, Concord Atlantic, probably represented by Director Julian Treger ex Anglo Pacific (as was, now Ecora)) : AP has a small stake, Tregere has 'significant influence or control'.

The Director Belleau comes from Champion Iron, where GLEN has a stake and Jyothish George (former Head of Glencore Iron Ore Marketing) is a Director.

'Maybe, baby..?'

If he's misremembered Mitsubishi for Mitsui, the latter has an equity stake in Binding Solutions Ltd, the pelletising specialist where Trahar Senior (ex AngloAmerican CEO and then Chair) is a shareholder and was a Director for a while...

I believe that ZIOC did some work with them about 6 years ago

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZIOC/pellet-test-announcement-ivf3a91en5p15hw.html

https://bindingsolutions.uk/2022/03/03/binding-solutions-secures-equity-investment-from-leading-asian-

conglomerate-2/

BSL's 2 most recent news shows they're progressing their cold pelletization technology at pace.

These are the other shareholders

https://bindingsolutions.uk/about-us/#strategic-partners

The Director Belleau comes from Champion Iron, where GLEN has a stake and Jyothish George (former Head of Glencore Iron Ore Marketing) is a Director.

'Maybe, baby..?'

GLA

.."Now that some numbers at least are in the public domain, let's see what happens!.."

And I see from t'other site (MM) that ' AT has been communicative. I understand that all the Strategics have received the full FS report and recostings *but* under NDAs as you might well expect. Of course this makes them insiders and hence they cannot buy ZIOC shares - at least not yet...'

If they've already been primed to expect the info, we might start to see some newsflow pretty soon.

GLA

Hi atg,

Oops!

On going back, I see that @10:11 you said 'NPV is an indicative financial tool and by definition highly punitive in discounting the future value and return. .." , and it was MM who challenged an assumed dismissive tone that wasn't there.

I agreed that it was a starting point before looking at other things, I said for example (1) country risk premium/discount and (2) that it was by definition vulnerable to the impact of any delay (in our case project implementation).

OTOH, I recognise that I'm looking at ZIOC's project from the narrow financial perspective of a lender and that the Strategic Investor(s) will likely have very different agendas and priorities, which we as outsiders can only guess at.

The number of hats in the ring may give us some clues.

Here's hoping!

ATB

Thanks, MM.

'The game's afoot!'

.."NPV is much more than any old 'indicative tool'..."

ATG's comment, not mine.

HTH

Hi Jiving,

Agreed : every buyer will have their own view of what constitutes for it/him a 'risk-free rate of return' - as a baseline - and what non -financial factors to include (and with what weightings) when looking at each investment.

And I'm in absolute agreement with your concluding remark : ' Of course any investor is likely to pay a discount to NPV but it will be a discount to 2024 NPV not 2014 NPV.'.

Now that some numbers at least are in the public domain, let's see what happens!

ATB

.."A thought experiment for you extrader...be honest..has your personal notional target for the value for Zioc doubled on today's news ?.."

No, as I said, "I believe folk like us will be squeezed out pretty soon and -all things considered - I think my 200p per share entry in the 'charity sweep' is well under-pinned.." ie unch but more confident.

I think the country risk discount has got worse on various measures - succession; corruption; mis-management; popular dissatisfaction - and (paradoxically, BECAUSE the cake has got bigger) there's greater prospect of 'foul play'. I can't guess what form that might take, but the bigger the prize, the more incentive to figure out how to snaffle it....again, I'd refer you to the shenanigans over Simandou.

Maybe I'm just the tenth man.

https://insightbeforeaction.com/the-tenth-man-rule-principle-explain…

ATB

Hi atg,

.."Ps..if Zanaga was magically in Oz, you would use a different less punitive discount rate . It is implicit..."

You'd think so, wouldn't you?

However, per the April 2011 presentation (p17), ZIOC does its NPV calculation is @10%, see

"  If cash offer is rejected by ZIOC pricing defers to independent valuation terms below :

- Feasibility Study technical assumptions

- 10% real discount rate

- CRU/AME forecast prices "

On the face of it, these NPV calculations don't factor in country risk premium (or discount).

AFAICS

Hence my 'thought experiment'.....

HTH

Hi Jiving,

Thanks for quoting 'chapter and verse', setting out our 'theoretical entitlement', which I hope is realised.

NPV is indeed an indicative financial tool, but its use is as a starting point for capital allocation decisions .

As a thought experiment, would Zanaga have the same real world value if it were magically re-located to Australia ?

I suggest not, for obvious reasons.

And for a comparison, rather than a counter-factual, just look at Simandou : AIUI, Rio Tinto has already sunk more than $ 1 Bn in Simandou, no doubt on the basis of an attractive NPV, an exercise crucially dependent on timely project execution.

MM's 'magic of compounding' argument cuts both ways if there's any material delay. Again, the Simandou experience is instructive :

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/01/09/why-rio-tintos-guinea-iron-ore-project-is-starting-after-27-years

I think - for the above 'real world' reasons - that investors shouldn't set too much store by NPV.

Perhaps I'm being too Eeyore-ish though : I'll be delighted to be proved wrong and see my expectations exceeded!

ATB

NPV is indeed an indicative financial tool, but it's used as a starting point for capital allocation decisions .

As a thought experiment, would Zanaga have the same real world value if it were magically re-located to Australia ?

I suggest not, for obvious reasons.

And for a comparison, rather than a counter-factual, just look at Simandou : AIUI, Rio Tinto has already sunk more than $ 1 Bn in Simandou, no doubt on the basis of an attractive NPV, an exercise crucially dependent on timely project execution.

MM's 'magic of compounding' argument cuts both ways if there's any material delay. Again, the Simandou experience is instructive :

https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/01/09/why-rio-tintos-guinea-iron-ore-project-is-starting-after-27-years

Jiving on the other board has done a good job of arguing the theoretical/technical basis for accepting NPV.

I think - for the above 'real world' reasons - that investors shouldn't set too much store by it....though I'll be delighted to be proved wrong and see my expectations exceeded.

Meanwhile, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

GLA and ATB

Hi Jiving,

"ZIOC has complete flexibility in funding obligations

• Takeout at NPV; or

• Dilution at NPV during construction "

That statement was used to support/justify the price of £ 1.56 at IPO stage, in the context of the then NPV. There's a lot of 'hope value' built in.

And I can't see PI's getting a free carry and / or monetising anywhere near the revised NPV.

A project creates value for its owners only when its cost is less than NPV, that's the whole point of the exercise, which is undertaken to determine the most efficient allocation of capital.

The increase in NPV is very welcome, but ZIOC shareholders at our level should not expect anything like the implied per share 'value' numbers being calculated.

I believe folk like us will be squeezed out pretty soon and -all things considered - I think my 200p per share entry in the 'charity sweep' is well under-pinned.

GLA and ATB

A project creates value for its owners only when its cost is less than NPV, that's the whole point of the exercise, which is undertaken to determine the most efficient allocation of capital.

The increase in NPV is very welcome, but ZIOC shareholders should not expect anything like the implied per share 'value' numbers being calculated.

All things considered, I think my 200p per share entry in the 'charity sweep' is well under-pinned.

GLA and ATB

Good point, MM. An issue for both GLEN and BHP would likely be funding.

Whilst GLEN is distracted/constrained with processing the Teck corporate acquisition/restructuring, BHP must to some extent be distracted/constrained by its $ 27.5Bn gross Brazil dam settlement (along with Vale, of course).

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/29/mining-firm-bhp-brazil-dam-vale-samarco

What price a GLEN/Gulf consortium bid for AAL (= no complicated breakup/divestment), with Zanaga thrown in for good measure ?

GLEN++ get control of major CU assets; GLEN gets critical mass in iron ore (hitherto lacking, as your link notes); GLEN continues with its cashcow coal backstop. Its Gulf partners /bankrollers get proxy investments that suit their pocketbooks/strategies : for Manara, a 'lower-in-the-hierarchy' minerals complement to its Vale acquisition; other GCC an increased portfolio of 'hard' assets', in Qatar's case in consortium and/or via its existing investment in GLEN.

The Chinese do a lot of the heavy lifting for any of the consortium's infrastructure needs globally,(without too much need for funding) and get a lot of opportunity to 'win friends and influence people', at both in-country and international levels.

Meanwhile, coming back to ZIOC, I note that the new study covers .."direct and indirect cost estimates ... updated to current market pricing using Chinese major equipment and contractor pricing for both phases of 12 Mtpa....and 18mtpa projects, inclusive of buried concentrate pipeline AND PORT INFRASTRUCTURE."

AIUI , the wayleaves/permissions for a back-country slurry pipeline should not be an issue, under local State property rights.

However, the port study surely has to be in co-ordination with Abu Dhabi (PN concession 'managers') and C-B (land etc , whether inside or outside a SEZ).

I wonder how 'in the loop' Abu Dhabi and C-B are?

Interesting times!

No probs, alwayshoping : given todays news, some extracts from the article headlines are appropriate :

..'analysing the contenders'...'sprint showdown'....

Hereshoping!

GLA and ATB

Ashmore latest

Argentina

Economic Activity Index -3.2% yoy in February vs. -6.0% consensus and -4.0% prior.

Economic Activity Index -0.2% mom in February vs. -0.8% mom prior.

Budget Balance ARS 625.0bn in March vs. ARS 1232.5bn prior.

Consumer Confidence Index 37.2 in April vs. 36.7 prior.

GLA

Cryptic, even by your standards, alwayshoping !

" Giro d'Italia - top cycling stories to your inbox ?" Such as...

...Giro d’Italia 2024 - Analysing the contenders (?)

Cyclingnews (25 Apr.) ..

or maybe

..."Tim Merlier prepares for big-name Giro d'Italia sprint showdown (?)

Cyclingnews (26 Apr.) ..

Say more !

ATB

Little Den doubles down on the marketing...

Just released https://twitter.com/CooperationCG/status/1784957195370504211

.."Minister Denis

@ChristelSassou

Nguesso was also invited to share his vision on how the public and private sectors of the Republic of Congo can capitalize on this new era of trade and investment between Africa and the countries of the CCG. The minister took this opportunity to present the assets of the Republic of Congo, specify the reforms undertaken to create an environment conducive to business as well as the current and future measures to guarantee the security of foreign investments. He further indicated that the Congo is committed to carrying out other major actions aimed at promoting economic growth through the development of key sectors such as agriculture, industry, tourism, digital, special economic zones, etc..."

Meanwhile, BrazzaNews relays a report of ongoing brownouts in the capital, Brazzaville...

https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20240428-congo-brazzaville-cinq-jours-sans-%C3%A9lectricit%C3%A9-dans-la-capitale?

.."Just beyond the Centre national de radio et de télévision (CNRTV), all the districts of the capital of Congo-Brazzaville have become ghost zones by nightfall. You can't see any lights, like in this busy bakery, where making bread is no longer easy. Darel is one of the managers of this business: ‘For five days in a row we've had no power, and that's been difficult for us. Yesterday, we couldn't work for lack of electricity. And the generator consumes too much diesel compared to our profits, so it didn't work", he lamented.

Darel laments the fact that he cannot meet the demand of consumers who have run out of bread: ‘There is no bread in the district and people are condemned to starvation. It's really unfortunate", he added.

To cope with the lack of electricity, some businesses and shops are using generators, whose deafening noise is unbearable, as in front of this night pharmacy where sellers and buyers no longer know which way to turn: ‘If there are excessive power cuts, it's because the network has aged. There will always be an electricity problem in Brazzaville because the network hasn't been overhauled yet,’ they complain.

Fire

The company Énergie électrique du Congo explains the current situation by the destruction by fire of unknown origin of the high-voltage substation supplying the northern zone of Brazzaville. The scarcity of electricity is compounded by the lack of water. Water is flowing intermittently during this period of intense heat..."

Not the best of backdrops to your marketing, I'd say.

GLA