Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Best of luck to those exiting now, but you’re missing out on a lot more upside. This is still undervalued considering confirmed resource, upside potential across all resources, technical analysis and momentum/sentiment… we’ve been waiting for this for a year.
If you have watched the forecasts over the last year or so they have been consistently wrong - most bullish forecasts appeared at ATH’s, while the most pessimistic tend to come at the bottom. Many are forecasting for the iron ore market to remain tight, many are calling for dramatic falls in price. Truth is they don’t really have a clue, and forecasters are always getting things wrong and adjusting forecasts.
What we do know is huge demand for metals will be required to overturn current infrastructure over the next 2-3 decades in the name of renewable energy… Iron ore and silver will be an integral part of that, alongside PGE’s, copper, lithium, cobalt etc.
Anyone who wants to learn some lessons from investing without making the mistakes, read Warren Buffett’s biography;
The first stock he bought was at 11 years old, he bought three shares of Cities Service Preferred at $38 per share, only for them to quickly drop to $27. He held on until $40 and was so relieved he had made a profit he sold… only for the shares to move almost 500% to just under $200 in short order after he’d sold.
The point being, yes some of us may have lost profits but having conviction on a well researched macro thesis and a well researched micro thesis at a company level tends to be very profitable. Markets aren’t rational, but true value will eventually shine through. Hopefully a message to people not to sell out feeling relieved the second they break even on this too, unless of course the fundamental case changes.
GLA
MyAvian… You’re not actually trying to say that the announcement “Issue of Equity” 10th February was a placing are you? It was an option agreement for 100,000 shares at £0.00975 as part of the deal for the right of acquisition of the Nuevo Andromeda permit.
Just for reference that’s about 0.0029% of shares in issue. Try harder.
Haha come on Wolfy, normally you at least put some effort in - you can see the buy was today at a 10% premium to the ask at the time after a 5m buy yesterday at a small premium. Two fairly strong blue days in a row… How are you turning that into bought yesterday, and dumping today?
Not a shareholder here yet, but I’m watching this carefully and I’ve got to say this is a bargain being overlooked by the market at the minute.
Hoping to get a chance to buy in when funds are free and would be a no brainer at these levels. I would suggest patience to all those holding here, great company with a great resource.
Exactly right Turbo - great advice. Do your research and analysis, set your target and get out. Don't listen to others, and if you do verify it before taking it into account. The story and targets can change as more becomes known about the company, management, assets, macro environment etc.
After that, never look back. You might feel like a genius getting out when you did or you might have to get your calculator out to see what could have been, either way you aren't changing it.
Fingers crossed for a strong week leading towards the MRE for the Sirius Extension around the end of September. And as Prospector pointed out the other day, we do still have those Mexican assets - don't completely count them out yet.
To those talking about the sells being an issue recently, Max partly covered the issue earlier but I'd just like to add a couple of bits.
1) Whoever is selling clearly isn't that savvy (no offence if you are reading this and it's you) - offloading large amounts of shares into very little volume in a matter of minutes really isn't a very profitable method of selling up.
2) I would suggest they aren't greatly researched, an MRE is quite a big thing for a company of this size. There aren't many companies at this stage with two JORC resources. We know we have resources in the ground, they aren't going anywhere which means this is de-risked to a large extent relative to a lot of other explorers. Yes this is a risky sector, but commodities are going to be in massive demand over the coming decade as current world infrastructure is required to change dramatically.
3) The price was up on Friday, so either there are some mis-prints in recent trades or someone is more than happy scooping up whatever was being sold towards the end of the day.
It's actually quite funny when the de-rampers rock up and waste their time on a share they aren't invested in or have no interest in on their weekend - do you really have nothing better to do? Or are you actually a bit interested but want to see if you can spook a few people first? Statements like "UFO might go out of business"... why would it go out of business? What are you basing off that - ridiculous statement thrown out to induce fear in the unwary.
I'm looking forward to the end of the year here with the company substantially further developed from this time last year and only strong sentiment needed to be added to the mix for a pretty substantial rally to take place. GLA holders.
I hope you begin to do better, Dragline but your history of investing isn’t exactly bright… You being bearish on UFO probably makes me more bullish looking at some of your calls:
- RMS bag holder from way back
- AMGO at 8.2p “sub 5p incoming” - now over 13p
- MHC at 5.2p “ looking like 18p by end of the year.. minimum” - now 3.6p
I’m sure there are more but I can’t be bothered to look.
Good luck to you, but stop bashing here when you aren’t a holder and focus more on your own investments.
£5/t is not bad, but bear in mind with an average buyout it is quite common to see a 30% premium paid otherwise why would the company be incentivised to sell? And that’s if Bill and the team believe that is the better option - they may want more or not be interested in selling. The margins on getting into production could be substantially more per tonne, if contracts for offtake, mining etc are organised.
A 30% premium puts us at circa £6.50/tonne, and on the Sirius Extension alone I reckon we are looking at 10-15 million tonnes, that could be £65-£97.5m. For a £26m market cap company that’s game changing if that was pulled off and the remaining resource at Han**** was kept.
Either way here, we have a great resource and our 40% increase in ownership of the Hammersley iron ore projects have hardly had an impact on our share price despite it making up the majority of our valuation at 51% ownership. True value will be found eventually.
GLA and fingers crossed for the drought finally ending.
I have been in direct contact with Bill, and though he's clearly busy he is also very prompt to respond and happy to explain details or answer any questions. Admittedly the PR company didn't respond to my e-mail, but it's good to know that management are happy to engage and communicate with shareholders.
On a side note, not sure if anyone actually recognises just how good the grades expressed today are, or how much more economic the project becomes as it sizes up, but EH could go from being a small but reasonably profitable project for us to a reasonably sized and very profitable operation with a bit more scale. Excellent news today, when drill results are confirmed in labs and further information is known about the deposit I suspect we will see a bigger move, but for now this is even more of a bargain than it was this morning.
RNS 24th Feb 21:
“ London, February 24, 2021, Orosur Mining Inc. ("Orosur" or "the Company") (TSX/AIM: OMI), a South American-focused gold developer and explorer announces that a block listing application ("Block Listing") has been made to the London Stock Exchange for up to 11,764,706 common shares of no par value each in the Company ("New Common Shares") to be admitted to trading on AIM.
Forming part of the Company's successful capital raising in late November 2020, the Company has on issue a total of 11,764,706 unlisted warrants exercisable at a price of 25.5 pence per New Common Share at any time prior to 7 December 2022.
The Block Listing has been filed to enable holders of the Company's warrants to continue to voluntarily exercise them without the need for the issue of a separate RNS and admissions filing each time this occurs. The Company will notify on a monthly basis when there are changes to the issued share capital of the Company, and these monthly figures may be used by shareholders as the denominator for the calculation by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change in their interest in, the share capital of the Company. The Company will also make six-monthly announcements regarding the utilisation of the block admission in line with its obligations under AIM Rule 29. It is expected that the Block Listing will become effective on or around 1 March 2021.”
The RNS today is just an obligatory update - in line with AIM Rule 29 as stated above.
I believe beyond that it is saying that 867,647 of these warrants have been exercised during this period and 10,897,058 remain to be exercised by 07/12/2022.
I was typing this, but saw Dip had already replied, but just to add to that...
Your iron ore claims were researched Chris, so I appreciate that but as I stated from my own research and not relying on analysts I would suggest iron ore prices remain pretty robust for the time being.
I would also suggest further research in terms of where PM's may be headed and what the FED are saying, inflation is running hot. If you watched Jerome Powell's press conference a couple of weeks ago you'll know that his idea of transitory is that they expect prices to remain high but not necessarily to inflate further, look at commodities across the board (this includes food stuffs which is being passed onto consumers now - check your groceries over the coming few months I have seen higher prices being eased in where I'm shopping most notably recently whole chickens up from £3.75 to £5.08), look at employment uptake at current wage levels in the US, look at PPI which tends to lead CPI (due to producers eventually passing on costs) etc. and tell me that this higher prices aren't here to stay, and inflation isn't likely to remain a present issue. I'd also suggest looking at the stock market, this is the biggest bubble we've ever seen - at some point that pops and that money has to go somewhere - I reckon I know a couple of metals that might benefit from that.
I'm not going to pretend I know exactly what's going on or to be an expert, but again through researching you can see that the Fed were saying inflation is transitory all through the 70's - sure it may be transitory, but for how long? 2 years of "transitory" inflation? A decade?
There are clearly substantial issues across the economy, do you keep an eye on the reverse repo market? Seeing north of $1 trillion on the reverse repo market is no longer unusual - this is another big red flag. Things aren't looking pretty and modern monetary theory is not only largely unknown in its effects but is undoubtedly going to present issues in the coming years.
Again on the demand side, silver is an important industrial metal with increasing use, especially now with increasing renewable demand, medical demand etc, and as an inflation hedge. I really wouldn't be basing decisions on current prices, there are a lot of tailwinds hovering around for silver and gold and they move very quickly.
Anywho, just a couple of pointers of areas you could look into to do some more independent research, there are plenty more but can't think of all of them off the top of my head.
GLA, hopefully another strong and fruitful Q3 and Q4 for us here, similar to 2020.
Goldman Sachs said iron ore will most likely be in a bull market until at least 2023.
But, I wouldn’t believe any of the analysts predictions to be honest with you, you can get whatever views you want if you cherry pick and they all probably come with an agenda.
I’d recommend everyone does their own research and looks at the macroeconomic environment, where where the world is headed, research the commodity requirements for these changes and make your own conclusions. I have and I personally like the outlook for iron ore.
This is the funny thing about market participants, unless there was a genuine reason for that fall in price then nothing fundamental has changed and you’d be looking at a bargain price. Why fear for a company’s survival if the fundamentals of the company haven’t changed, and price action takes it low? That’s the time to be buying, irrational market participants create some great opportunities for the astute investor, that many won’t partake in because they’d rather buy higher when everyone else wants to buy too.
The only reason iron ore prices have fallen is China has imposed tariffs on exports of steel so global demand has dropped off due to the prices rising.
Demand is still very high in China and they are trying to keep more Chinese steel within its own borders to aid in its recovery from Covid. Couple this with attempts to reduce emissions and keep prices down with factory gate prices up around 9% and it’s pretty self-explanatory why they want the market to cool off - they’re attempting to suppress most commodities at the minute.
I don’t think this will last long, as mass infrastructure is needed globally for a green push which is evidently becoming more urgent after the recent IPCC report, and countries are looking to spend trillions to make this happen and aid in recovery from Covid’s impact on economies - historically infrastructure or war is the best way out of economic hardship.
Vale aren’t set to reach full production until the earliest 2023, since the dam disaster they had. BHP and Rio Tinto haven’t been able to expand their output - they are already operating near full capacity.
Plenty of analysts after it went over $200 were saying $300 and on dips were calling for a return to $100, now its falling and many are calling for it to drop lower. I’m super happy with anything over $150/tonne as that’s hugely profitable, any higher is a big bonus.
But basically macro drivers of iron ore prices suggest to me that we will see sustained high prices for years to come. This commodity bull cycle is only just warming up IMO.