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I get that the deal isn’t signed and all details confirmed, but… I can’t believe people are actually choosing to sell after that news has come in. Do they not realise the implications of how game changing this is for UFO as a company? Being in production in H1 2023 is now a very real possibility and we have a buyer of our product. This also gives us a working relationship with a major for our other projects.
Also bear in mind that in the 2 weeks leading up to the end of our exclusivity agreement with Capstone the share price here ran around 500%… and I’m just saying, this is much bigger news and looks to be a much better deal that that one. Onwards and upwards
Ultimately more long-term value will be generated from mining it ourselves, the only question that remains is how that is done and funded. But Richard has time to watch it play out, hopefully we reap the rewards over the coming months and don’t have to wait too long to benefit as shareholders.
The way I see it is Richard Bennelong (owner of Windfield) wants to make sure he gets to capitalise off the production of the project with his substantial (and growing) stake here, so they’re discouraging UFO selling the project on through that clause.
Should work for both parties, but Richard has brought iron ore projects into production before, he knows what he’s doing and knows how to maximise his returns. A good guy to have on board, even if he is going to extract every ounce of value he can from us - his interests are very much aligned with ours and even more so after this.
I completely get that, Slimgizmo - I get the frustration with it all the market is very frustrating at times and can create huge disconnects between true value and share price. That absolutely happens to the upside too (which it did in 2020) but it certainly seems we are pushing an extreme low right now and sellers are moving out due to fear or perhaps opportunity cost.
Communications have been poor recently but I do expect them to improve. Seasonally speaking we do very well around October (look at 2020 and 2021). Let’s hope for more of the same this year!
If I had more money I’d be thanking any sellers here, anyone who bought within the last 2 years roughly is now out of profit just as the company is coming up to a transformational point of actually generating profits which is damn rare for a junior. Permits and offtake to come soon and we could see a re-rate similar to the one we saw this time 2 years ago (1000% between 25th August and 19th October). Good luck all holders… sentiment here is awful even among those who have been positive for a long time, hopefully we get rewarded soon with some long awaited communication.
Can’t disagree with that, the marketing/communications have been poor - if I hadn’t researched the company within an inch of its life I wouldn’t even know we even had a PR company.
I get the market needs something solid, but on receipt of a mining licence and any kind of funding this could easily be 4-5x higher on a rational level, not to mention how much higher it could go irrationally speaking as we know how markets like to overreact both ways.
I may end up eating my words on this, as we may sink lower, but we haven’t been this low since September 2020, since which time we have a resource estimate on an iron ore project worth over $10bn in ground (with a drilling programme underway to expand that), in the process of re-opening the silver mine with the highest grades seen from any drill hole in the last couple of years, a large PGE deposit with a proven resource of $5bn in ground (hopefully to be expanded) and ready to drill at what could prove to be a behemoth iron ore project next to several majors.
Our current market cap is lower than the annual profits we would be generating if we are in production next year. I thought the market was at least somewhat forward looking, but maybe not in the world of AIM.
Just to add to what Tigrrr said, I’m pretty sure Bill specified that part of the reason capex will be lower is accomodation won’t be needed, they will only need an on-site office effectively. The town of Newman is right next door with plenty of accommodation around
MM’s do also tend to prefer dropping the bid to scare people out of positions or hit stop losses, remember they make money on the spread - why would they put it up first to attract sellers? Markets work off fear and greed, may as well try the fear side to shake people out cheap and make more on the spread.
I’m mixed in my view on it, a leak is possible and I’m somewhat nervous of that, but I do not think Rod would have come aboard just to have a bad news dump associated with him.
A very odd close of play, big sells make me wary due to the potential of leaked news, however we know the MM’s have soaked up at least 11.5m in sells today in the space of a couple of minutes, and at least Not all of those have been sold on to buyers as of yet, added to that quite a few people have reported NT to buy at the close of play. Interesting that MM’s aren’t willing to release those shares perhaps? Let’s hope!
LSE might paint a bit of an ugly picture of miners and explorers, but Australian, Canadian and US registered miners have all had a great couple of weeks and are having another good day today. At some point one would assume the gap has to fill here. It’s almost arbitrage at this point - UK investors seem to have next to no interest in mining projects, until prices are flying. Crazy and a bit depressing when you can’t take advantage of the opportunities, but for anyone with cash, what a chance you have here.
Spot on, Turbo, not a time to be selling - very few circumstances under which one could justify selling here.
I suggest people start brushing up on their financial modelling and valuations - won’t be long until we can put figures through a model and get a much more accurate valuation for Hanc0ck. Even if we only made $30/tonne - which I suggest it will be a bit higher, net profits of $37.5m annually and likely to increase as the project gets scaled up with an initial life of mine of at least 8 years gives an NPV significantly higher than our current SP even with a high discount factor and without including a couple of other pretty decent assets. Munni Munni on its own is a company maker, especially given the geopolitical situation, just need a few recent drill holes and a JV to have a chance to monetise it.
Brockman is likely a lot bigger than Han**** with some big potential partners around the tenement - Hanc0ck is only a stepping stone but a huge one that will completely transform this company. Or from our profits from Han**** we can even explore going it alone on some of these bigger projects. Have a nice weekend everyone, and fingers crossed for some news next week.
Who’s out here selling today at 22 month lows when we could be getting more Hanc0ck drill results, and a JV/offtake agreement for Hanc0ck in the coming weeks? A lot of incompetence from impatient market participants - looking forward to an update soon. GLA
Yep, Bill keeps his role in working on the technical side of things which is what he’s really been doing anyway, and we have a more financial/corporate type to hopefully get a couple of deals over the line now at a critical time.
High volume also means churning out weak hands, Paul once they’ve sold they can’t sell again and the buying pressure should take us higher.
Don Durrett who is an expert in silver juniors said we’re undervalued and he’s not even aware of the iron ore or Munni Munni projects which are our two biggest projects.
I’ve seen a couple of mentions of 2 drill rigs at APTA now - wondering if anyone can point me to where this info was found?
I know things feel crap here at the minute with the share price, and the BOD’s poor effort to do anything about it, but there is so much potential in a world class deposit and a lot of results to expect…
- Rock chip samples
- BLEG results
- Drill results
- A new drill campaign
- IP survey results
This was one of the fastest moving shares on AIM last year, it won’t take much for this to do a few hundred %. GLA, I don’t think this rout for junior miners/explorers will last much longer.
Been holding here for a while and share the sentiment of everyone else - this has been extremely poor by management and I have stayed because it’s a world class asset, but I’m not sure when fortunes will turn around with poor PR from management and what appears to be quite sharky behaviour from the board now.
Just to clarify the options the BOD would have the right to grant themselves would be equal to circa 10% of the company (around 18 million shares)? Without a specified strike price?
And we are also voting for whether the same BOD members should continue to be on the board?
100% Smiller, there are very few undervalued sectors around at the minute and AIM represents the most unloved of the sector.
IMO the macro thesis behind PM’s has never been so strong.
Patience will be rewarded here, I believe - and recently saw Vale also believe this - that around February 2022 we will see a major turn around in the iron ore market to the upside (post Beijing Winter Olympics).
I always find it funny how irrational markets get around a placing. I completely get no one likes to be part of a placing, and I'm not exactly happy about momentum being ripped out from under us after waiting a year for it, but as a value investor take a second to think about the opportunity you've been presented...
I'd say a fair statement is that 1.07p (the close yesterday was probably a low-ball estimate for what the market considered fair value here at the minute). I can only assume that if you were holding there you considered that to be undervalued...
470 million shares taken @ 0.85 is a dilution of circa 13.7%, so first of all even if no cash was raised this is an irrationally large drop, though I know markets drop to placing price frequently - with no cash added this dilution should logically have taken us to around 0.925p. Add £4m cash would add roughly 0.1p/share in value;
(4,000,000 x 100 = 400,000,000 pence)
(4,000,000,000 shares/400,000,000 pence = 0.1p/share).
Therefore logically you could assume that a fair value with current shares in issue would be 1.025p, if you thought it was undervalued before then that would be considered undervalued too.
Add this to the fact that dilution up to close to the point of Hanc0ck producing now shouldn't be a problem, and Han**** is likely to be financed via debt (which won't dilute us shareholders) and you're looking at a pretty damn good deal here.
DYOR and GLA. This isn't so great for current shareholders, I won't pretend it's a pleasant thing to be a part of... but for those with money on the side-lines this is a great opportunity.