Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
BBG has 45 million options, 15 million exercisable at 0.45p, 15 million at 0.5p and 15 million at 0.55p, with a deadline of some time in 2023.
Not really current skin in the game, though evidently does very well if the company make substantial progress. I personally would actually like to see a bit of skin in the game from BBG and other directors now - would instill some confidence.
He’s just saying that in the next few years, the company will likely do a share consolidation, so x shares will become y depending on the consolidation, for example in his message he suggested 1m shares would become 1k shares - a consolidation of 1000 to 1. It will ultimately have zero impact, as it doesn’t effect market cap, only the share price (due to a change in the number of shares in issue). May or may not happen, but won’t change anything technically.
Markets are naturally inefficient, despite all the theories in finance. Inefficiency creates opportunity for the savvy investor; if you understand what you are looking at, and realise the results are great but the price hasn't moved then it is probably down to:
1) Markets lagging the news - GGP seems to be a good example of this.
2) The news was already priced in
3) Markets are a reflection of human psychology and behaviour, a lot of people will be impatient and many sell into news - this creates opportunity for those who are a bit more savvy and have a long-term view. Those with long-term views tend to be rewarded a lot more handsomely than those jumping in and out looking for a quick buck, especially if they are good at identifying a company with good prospects.
Anywho, onwards and upwards, great news today. Maiden drilling programs are difficult, as you are working from nothing and you often need to try to identify the correct area to drill in to based off very little. Finding several large mineralisation holes gives the team a great basis to work off and an idea of where to drill next - expect more consistent results from the next set of drill work. Hopefully soil sampling will also provide evidence of further areas of DSO grade iron ore formation, and an even better idea of areas to drill.
Anyone selling into this news, with 1,300m more drilling already done, Capstone, EH tailings, and potential permits for Brockman, San Celso and Los Campos to come potentially all in short order may live to regret this greatly (I haven't given up hope entirely yet on those permits being delivered - Covid cases are falling now in Mexico, and over 20% of the population have a first vaccine dose, so things should be returning to "normal" soon - especially considering politicians and those working in ministries will likely be top of the list for vaccinations.)
GLA, this story is developing nicely.
https://www.alienmetals.uk/investors/capital-structure/
Major shareholders, warrants, options etc. all listed on the website under investors then capital structure.
As much as I'm tired of the Covid excuse, they literally explained in RNS':
12/05/21: "Potential asset sale, FSP & other updates"
"The Board has therefore also decided that it is time for the Company to exit from the Formal Sale Process, which has been prolonged due in part to COVID-19 lockdowns-related delays in conducting site visits"
14/01/21: "Update on Formal Sale Process"
"Progress to date has been slower than expected reflecting the complexity of the process, involving several parties and structures, as well as external factors including COVID-19 related travel restrictions, and more recently delays resulting from western and Russian holiday periods. Notwithstanding these factors, discussions regarding proceeding to binding proposals are continuing."
Spot on, Paul. Vale are Brazil’s primary exporter of iron ore, and are set to be scaled back in production for years yet as they gradually recover from the disaster with the dam they had a couple of years ago.
So, supply side issues will remain, and premiums will remain on DSO grade because it is the most efficient and therefore the least polluting type of iron ore to produce into steel. With crackdowns on pollution China will not be switching to lower quality iron ore that requires more processing, and more pollution to form the same quality of steel - no chance.
Exactly right Barrett, also have to think about what the Chinese gain from lower iron ore prices - temporarily lower prices on commodities, and better margins on their output.
They have done this multiple times even since the start of 2021, where if you look at the iron ore chart there is a temporary dip, then the price continues its move up. The fact of the matter is, you cannot manipulate supply and demand mechanics forever, especially with a commodity such as iron ore. All markets need a breather, so iron ore prices may be taking a breather - they may continue their journey up or they may stabilise (to state the obvious).
But at the end of the day, prices anywhere near $200/tonne are extremely profitable, especially for DSO grade iron ore. Big infrastructure projects are only just starting in Western Countries, while China are looking to continue their commodity based growth for the time being. All looks good from where I'm sitting.
When I say a good time, I have a test of at least $29 by latest the end of June, but I'd expect a test of $30 soon after and see highs (for now) around September before we get another consolidation.
Not sure how that compares with your thinking, but doesn't sound too different?
If I didn't find Chris' comments funny, he would be my first block, but it brings me a laugh to see him still chirping in.
As others have pointed out, Chris made quite the error during his time invested here - when he was merrily supportive of the share. Now he takes out his frustrations on the share, as a constant bad smell that just doesn't seem to go away - just check his posting history.
Of course there is optimism from shareholders here, they see potential in the projects and the macroeconomic climate is looking very favourable across the board for the commodities we have. What can't be explained so easily is why, after not having been invested for so long you still bother to poke your head in, Chris?
Anyway, hope everyone has a great weekend. Going to put my neck on the line and say my charts point to June being a good time for silver - hopefully that will reflect in our share price.
That is true, SB - the finer details are important of course. However it is hard to price that in, as a sale of the asset can't really reflect on share price too well before the offer comes in (EUA for example).
I don't think, unless there was a great offer on the table that we would look at selling as an option either, though I could be wrong if the right price is presented.
It's a great deal, I think;
it has cost us £60,000 cash, and a dilution total of 250,000,000 shares - ((250,000,000/3,430,000,000)*100) = 7.29% dilution.
So if we were to take the value of what it has cost the company according to the current market value; £2,915,000 in shares and £60,000 in cash, so a total current value of £2,975,000.
In pre-deal terms, if we said that our ownership of the Hammersley project was worth 75% of our market cap on their lowball estimations - this was about £30,000,000, this was for our 51% ownership - we have now gained an additional 39.2% of the project - which increase the value of our previous holding of the project by 76.9% - ergo adding £23,070,000 to the theoretical value of the company.
There are a few assumptions in there, and it's not that simple considering they now own an additional chunk of the company which has diluted all our shares of all projects, however even with a margin for error in the assumptions made - I'd swap £23,070,000 for £2,975,000 any day. If great results come back from Hanc*ck it may have cost us substantially more than that to take control of their share of the project.
Also note that for simplicity I have added the 50,000,000 warrants for 1.65p in there as part of the cost of dilution, but at some point in the future, if those warrants are exercised, it will put £825,000 in our coffers.
I'll be happy to go over that at some point, and make it a little less basic, but the premise is the same - great deal.
I'm not here to argue on the internet, but with that being said;
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, Napth has always called out people he believes to be full of (insert whatever word feels fitting here - I don't want to get banned), and I can respect that. If he has called you out, you know if he has got it wrong and if he has then who cares, move on. And if he is right, he's got people thinking critically about people's intentions on this board (and others). Tymers came to this board, as a non-investor and his message history and accusations - from what I could be bothered to check - weren't all consistent - he brought drama to the board, not Napth. I would urge everyone to take everything with a pinch of salt, everyone has their own biases. Use this forum as a guide, but don't blindly follow anyone else's research without verifying it.
I have never filtered anyone to date, as a like a range of views to verify my own views and to introduce new ideas and areas of research. However, if someone bothers you that much then the option is there. GLA, lots to look forward to.
I believe the reason for the lack of a rise is;
1) Small dilution
2) We have a bigger chunk of we’re not quite sure what yet
I have looked a lot into the geology of the area, and mapped it out, looking at current drill holes on surrounding tenements, and at similar geological occurrences and believe that Han**** is bigger than estimates suggest. Conclusive drilling results showing substantial deposits of iron ore will make this news all the sweeter IMO.
Great posts from everyone this morning, and great move by Bill & management - didn’t expect it to come in all honesty.
Han**** is going to be fast tracked from here, and rightly so, team back on the ground there will be preparing for resource drilling this year, and I’m sure management are planning what next, whether that be a JV or the plausibility of going it alone - I still lean towards JV, but only if our partner wants to move things fast.
GLA, I like the bigger picture coming together here.
The reliance of explorers on external sources in their early stages is the reason for aggressive discounts applied to the valuation of their projects, alongside the uncertainty of what the resource contains while it is being proved up.
Anyone who is put off by an operating loss on a junior explorer/miner needs to jog on and find another sector they understand more about.
I expect D2 to come in June, while I expect Hanc*ck and Tailings could come at any point. With the team back onsite at Hanc*ck, I suspect they have results and are now preparing for the next phase of drilling - perhaps taking some surface samples in areas they suspect further high grade material will be uncovered, or working out exactly where they want to drill more.
I also am not going to rule out drilling permits for Brockman, San Celso or Los Campos dropping at any second - though the wait has been long, every day should be a day closer.
We will see, but ultimately lots of news to come over the coming 6 weeks I should think.
Agree with you, Paul, not the first time the Chinese have said something to try to drop commodity prices. Everytime, however, prices have rebounded after a very short-term stall/drop as you simply cannot fight demand mechanics with empty statements.