Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
“Alien Metals Ltd
09:40 21 Oct 2019
A reinvigorated Alien Metals is all set to become the market's next multi-million dollar prospect generator
New board, new strategy, new projects, and new energy: Alien Metals Ltd (LON:UFO) is just emerging from a process of rebirth, following a changing of the guard at the top, and the difference is palpable.
Onto the scene bounds Richard Shemesian, a major backer of the reinvigorated Alien, and a man whom London investors may remember from the last mining boom, when he helped turn a lowly-rated iron ore Aim and ASX- listed vehicle called Aztec Resources into a A$300mln company that was able to sell out to the Chinese at just the right time.
Shemesian's been cooling his heels somewhat since then, although he's still involved with Artemis Resources (ASX:ARV), which he has just helped raise A$6mln and which is moving forward with exploration in, amongst other places, the Paterson Range.
Now he's back in London though, having helped orchestrate a revitalisation and re-financing of Alien, and full of plans.
He'll be helped along the way by new technical director Bill Brodie Good, who was appointed in July, and who brings a steady geological hand to the tiller - his impressive CV that boasts significant time at the top end of SRK among its many highlights.
Together they plan to transform Alien from the somewhat sleepy-eyed silver company it had ended up becoming under the tenure of the previous management, into an aggressive new acquisition vehicle that aims to hoover up opportunities in the mining sector as they arise.”
Exactly Pickuz, I like that too, your bets are automatically spread.
The thing with today’s results is it does suck, and I would urge the BOD not to spend much on D2 work at the minute while funds are limited. However maiden drilling is hard and you often get dusters because you have to hit the resource - Capstone could have been inches from high grade copper and we just won’t know until/unless someone drills further. That’s the unfortunate part of exploration. I believe Haveiron was written off by Newcrest after drilling, only for GGP to drill deeper and find the motherload.
San Celso and Los Campos are historical mines, and have been mined before. There is a resource there, we know that, that’s the advantage of historical mines - we just need to find out how much and where. Though again I feel very little value is added from those at the minute due to a lack of work and knowledge surrounding the projects.
EH and the tenement surrounding have a confirmed high-grade silver resource that could be open on strike in several directions, the tailings could provide some level of income in the short term (would only require leaching if it’s feasible), and it adjoins the Munni Munni complex which likely gives us PGE exposure, alongside several other priority and non-priority targets.
Greenland won’t be touched for a while, nor should it be, we don’t have the funds to at the minute, or a team out there, it would cost too much.
There is ultimately lots going on here, most of the current value I believe comes from Hammersley projects, but there is a correlation however strong or weak to silver, so that is obviously being priced in to an extent.
Nothing in my posts today have suggested this is good, of course the results are bad and we have lost our JV partner. However, D2 didn’t really contribute to our market cap IMO, of course it would have a bit, but not that much.
If drill results were good and a resource was proved up then it could have added good value but as it was didn’t see it adding much.
0.85p made sense as the buying zone (a double bottom) and previous resistance line. Certainly been a knock today, but the advantage of being a multi commodity and multi resource play is the blows are softened by your other projects.
GLA, hopefully some of you got in low and it’s on the up from here, but Bill and the team will need to put out some good news soon to boost sentiment.
Haha come off it, how has this drink to high heaven all year? Odd there have been a couple of big sells into the close leading up to this, sure. But otherwise, nothing has “stunk”. Hammersley should have had more of an impact, this shouldn’t have had this much of an impact in all honesty, but here we are, investor fear is stronger than hope.
0.85p has put in a double bottom and downside is limited from here I think. Lots of buying pressure come in in the last 5 minutes with no quote to sell early this morning, could sell 1m for the rest of the morning until the last 5 minutes been getting quotes to sell 3M+.
I don’t think D2 was much of a contributing factor to share price, with no resource known, I more hoped for significant value from it. I hope the team focus on Hammersley, EH + tailings, and getting permits in Mexico for Los Campos and San Celso rather than following up on D2 for the time being. We need the funds directed elsewhere. Not the best day here admittedly, and is definitely a knock, but primarily a sentiment knock, and as I say I think (hope) the bottom is in.
In theory should be a small drop, 0.6p is silly, considering a lot has developed since 0.6p days, but this is going to hit sentiment whether we should be higher or not.
Should not be a major drop all in all, but it is disappointing, as I hoped D2 would be the catalyst of a breakout.
If the shares remained with Windfield it would have been too good to be true. With an 80% of holding in Windfield as part of our acquisition we would have effectively gained 176 million UFO shares, and paid for 80% of Windfield with 200 million. I’m not surprised we have had this notification. I will be interested to see additional RNS’ around holdings here.
For anyone that is interested to see volumes over the past 50 days of trading to guess how long it might have taken to sell their holding (6.42% of 3.425 billion shares = circa 220 million shares).
Volume:
Past 10 days: 173.479 million
Past 20 days: 332.753 million
Past 30 days: 580.909 million
Past 40 days: 729.079 million
Past 50 days: 889.192 million
Exactly, Deanok. I'm curious to see if the CEO has sold up as they are receiving another 200m shares anyway, or if they are being moved elsewhere.
I'm not sure what volume has been like over recent weeks, but I imagine that would be a lengthy position to close.
That's interesting on the workforce, I hadn't heard of that, but very interesting. It will definitely be interesting to see how global economies and politics develop over the next decade. As well as seeing general infrastructure change towards being more green. I think we are about to see a couple of decades of change.
I'm convinced commodities are in general a great place to be, the less manipulated industrial metals have had a much smoother ride of it, though the inflationary pressures increasing demand on silver as an inflationary hedge and increasing demand for silver on an industrial level both look very bullish in the short, medium and long term to me. I have been looking for a move towards the end of June, but not going to be upset if I'm wrong, ideally the bigger move will be later in the year with a bit more time to position exactly where we want to be.
I will be happy to keep the board updated as and when - macro conditions will play a big part in this move.
Disclaimer: As always take this with a pinch of salt, but might be of interest to some.
1) https://www.tradingview.com/x/8flUAtFw/
A daily chart, I have used a line to simplify it, but a clear bullish pennant showing itself here which would require a conclusion on the 25th June as things stand. We also have the support of our 200 day MA which we have dipped below a couple of times, but which we have always bounced back above convincingly. Golden cross likely to be given in the next few days, as the 50 day MA continues its journey up (our 0.85p low close on 25th March was 50 trading days ago today so will rise more steeply tomorrow). We have clear horizontal resistance at 1.2p, 1.3p, 1.5p and 2p, and support at 1.1p, 1.07p, 1.05p, 1p, 0.9p and 0.85p (not all drawn on).
2) https://www.tradingview.com/x/ltZZKjkV/
Here is a weekly log chart so we can see a longer term view. We have been in a downtrend for the last 10 years - back in October this declining resistance trend line was almost the exact spot that stopped the move up. If we break this line the skies become a bit clearer to the north and open up possibilities to move higher - though of course there are horizontal trend lines of resistance we will need to break through. A break of 3.9p shows a gap up to 9.78p on the weekly and daily chart, while the monthly shows a gap up to around 7.6p.
Not saying any of this will unfold - I'm not completely convinced that gaps will be filled, but its a possibility that the likes of Northstar have pointed out. GLA - hope you're enjoying the weather.
Chinese PPI (Producer Price Index), or factory-gate prices, came in at 9% today. So far Chinese producers haven't passed on costs to consumers, due to a lack of consumer demand, but with demand picking up and western economies re-opening, how long until those extra costs are passed on?
Due to the scale of production in China, and its rise as the world's leading manufacturer, all we have known since the 90's is somewhat of a deflationary impact of China on goods around the world. Is the time for that over? Will Chinese producers now add to the inflationary pressures already exerting themselves on the west?
With US inflation data coming out tomorrow we're in for an interesting week. I expect a bear trap spike down, followed by a move up again - perhaps we can find a new base above $28.
If $30k goes, I wouldn't be surprised to see $24k in quite quick order. Can only hope the capital outflows head into precious metals, though I think a lot of BTC investors were more looking to jump on the hype train rather than looking for wealth preservation/an inflation hedge, so we will see.
You're not wring, but I feel that is the way with the market - it's all a game of psychology and as humans we are largely flawed with highly pessimistic thoughts and fear when prices are falling (especially as dramatically as they have fallen here in the last few weeks), and over-elevated when euphoria and excitement kicks in at how quickly prices are rising.
I tend towards buying unloved shares, or those where sentiment is very low as I have learnt they tend to be the bargains, at the minute this is one of those IMO. The premise of buy low, sell high is lost on many investors (hence why so many lose money), due to behavioural and psychological influences.
Hey Leno, primarily fear and sentiment causing sellers. Prolonged red days ruin people's confidence, and cause a lot of people to sell out of fear of it dropping lower, and others out of expectations of it going lower with the thought that they will pick more up.
I'm happy to sit on these, very confident in the BOD and what I believe they will deliver. I will top up if I get the opportunity, I would consider anyone selling at these levels brave or stupid, but that's just my opinion.