Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yep, well overdue news - I wake up every morning expecting an RNS on my screen.
Anyone selling here is either fearful or must need the money. I’m still looking for that traditional October rally. Remember 364% in 2020, 91% in 2021…
Spot on Norm, though I would suggest they have already gone too far, too fast. US government interest payments on national debt now exceeds $700 billion, forecasts have crept from strong growth in Q3 to close to 0% and likely to turn negative (much like Q1 and Q2).
Big tech are cutting production as demand slows and halting recruitment. Fixed year 30 year mortgage rates hit 7.08% yesterday in the US, and overnight trading saw US10Y bond yields go over 4% for the first time in over a decade. The Fed are losing control of the bond market with losses on bonds exceeding losses on equities this year in the US for what I believe is the first time in history.
They will have to slow down/stop at the next convenient moment which will be sustained drop in inflation - 8% is still far too high, and/or a substantial change in employment conditions which will likely start to rear its head in the next few months as the impact of interest rate hikes on the economy is lagged.
The DXY rise is very little to do with Russia frankly. This road map was laid out to some extent before Russia even invaded Ukraine, though it was thought that so many hikes would not necessarily be needed, but inflation has been stickier than forecast by Central Banks.
The DXY has rallied on the back of hiking their rates faster than any other western economy which causes $ demand as the reward for saving in $’s is greater than the euro, yen, sterling etc. This has been exacerbated more recently by foreign bodies selling US treasuries, which increases demand for $ - this is likely a short term parabolic spike as the likelihood is these $ will be used by the likes of Japan, the UK etc to protect their currencies which have lost a substantial amount of purchasing power relative to the dollar in recent months.
I can accept that the Russian invasion resulted in some level of movement into the $, as it is considered a safe haven but that is not the metric that has been at play recently.
Two things most likely to cause a drop in DXY:
- The Fed coming to the end of their rate hike cycle while other major economies that are a bit further behind continue to hike.
- Countries beginning to protect their currencies against devaluation on the international stage through intervention in financial markets.
Spot on, SectorInspector. I’m also of the opinion that the junior mining sector on LSE is at its bottom and has been bottoming out for months now.
OMI is one of my absolute favourite plays with good funding and a free carry on what easily has the potential to be a 10m oz + resource, during a time where credit may tighten the risk to OMI of struggling with funding is very low especially in the near term.
From a macro view as well, a Fed pivot likely isn’t too far away (when I say pivot I include a pause in rate rises). And now with currencies being impacted how they are, we are heading towards a time where Central Banks may be happier to intervene in FX markets - we saw Japan do it last week due to depreciation against the $ - how long until they do it again and how long until the UK get involved? Don’t forget Japan and the UK are the 1st and 3rd biggest holders of US treasuries in the world (combined holdings of over $1.8 trillion) so don’t be surprised if something like that becomes the trigger for the dollar’s downfall. America have been ahead of the game and through strengthening their own currency have effectively exported inflation to all those not keeping up with the same pace of rate hikes. When the DXY drops expect a fast move in commodities.
Very interesting time to be alive and watching all of this. GLA
Anyone selling here either has either a short-term mindset or doesn’t quite understand what we’re sitting on here.
Can’t say when the next results we get through will be, as communication has historically been pretty bad, but Brad seemed keen to change that, so I’m going to be sitting on my hands waiting for the next thick, high grade drill holes to come through.
It’s a completely irrelevant, dumb comment so not sure why I’m responding, but…
AA made gross profits of:
2021: $25.6 billion
2020: $13.5 billion
2019: $13.5 billion
2018: $11.8 billion
A 28% reduction from a record breaking year in 2021 isn’t exactly problematic to its balance sheet.
They would still be vastly outperforming prior years. Thanks for playing, Chris.
Rod took part in a placing, fronting £250k cash for 50 million shares, of course he’s spent his own money on his share allocation. What I assume you’re talking about is the options he was given for joining, but this has already been discussed.
FFS how many people are going to try to say he hasn’t spent money on shares, do you guys bother to actually read the RNS’ before you start spouting ****??
How can you try to say the company will never make a profit? If you’re wanting to go on a board and tell shareholders their investment is stupid because the company they hold shares in will never make a profit there are much easier targets than this… this is a company with a deal on the cards for funding and offtake alongside a low capex start up for the project.
Those results alone offer scope for ORR being multiples of its current SP. This is shockingly low, and those drill holes really paint a picture of a potentially economically viable resource with good reason to keep drilling.
I’m shocked at the lack of response in the board to that news too - shows how awful sentiment is here. Hopefully this marks the beginning of a recovery for ORR and longer term shareholders who have desperately clung on.
Chris ramped QBT in December 2021 - stating “the action will begin in Q2 2022” and at 3.95p “Get on board before its too late” - it’s now 1.75p
In October 2021 Chris cross ramped GST on here at 2.8p… now 1.15p
9th October 2021 Chris predicted 8-10 years until UFO produced iron ore “of any quantity” - I don’t think I need say more on that one.
Chris was in HEMO in June 2021 at 2.3p, now 1.4p
Throughout his history he has posted informed us that he “bought yesterday” and “sold today” - but only ever in hindsight, so I’m not sure I believe him as he never posts when he actually buys just waits for a green day then claims to have masterfully traded it.
Chris in October 2020 at just under 2p talking about UFO: “You only feel you have missed the train depending on how high you think this will go?If it gets to 10p (which is not unachievable given the assets and potential) then you will have 5 bagged at current price” - would you look at him ramping on a spike!
In September Chris said he sold when the SP was 0.62p… at 0.85 he was talking about being back in and how great Bill’s vision was and trusting his experience.
I did waste 20-30 minutes of my life putting this together but believe it’s important for those new here to know that Chris is full of tripe and doesn’t really have much of a clue what he’s talking about but guesses right from time to time then harps on about it. GLA
Still looks good from a charting perspective, only 10% up from yesterdays open now… ridiculous price. It may drift some more, or it may base around here over the coming weeks, but either way this is a bargain price considering historic drill holes and now this.
Looks like a few traders sold out which pushed it down, and a load of people have panicked to get out in profit as they’ve seen it falling and not much has been done to instil confidence in holders over the past months.
I hope 14.5p holds, as it would make sense to (previous highs should become support and it got to 14.5p before knowing about that great drill hole). But bullish structures would remain in tact even if it went a bit lower.
No point trying to time a share like this too much when phase 2 could be announced any day, and we could get confirmation of 10g/t + drill holes.
Anyone selling here must have some pretty short time horizons or need the money for something else?
Anyway GLA - won’t take many more holes like that to firmly place us as a $100m+ company.
People taking profit, no surprises what with having risen over 100% in recent weeks.
Personally holding here, yesterdays news and interviews were both very encouraging. I’m expecting some more solid drill holes over the coming months, and phase 2 to begin soon. The area is clearly highly mineralised - look at the deposits we’re surrounded by, and the results we’ve had so far.
I don’t think management have necessarily been the best here, mainly with regard to communications but the quality of the asset speaks for itself, and I am fairly confident OMI will show itself to be worth multiples of its current SP.
I didn't mind the raise side of things so much when the share price was heading up, as I believed we were getting a bit of momentum behind us, and the funding agreement would be transformational. Apparently I was wrong about that being good news, as we are now pretty much the same price as pre-announcement. I hope we're churning out those weak hands so when we get confirmation of the deal, expansion of the resource and updated financials we are actually able to run nicely before running into major resistance but time will tell on that front.
I wouldn't be shocked if AA wanted in on the equity raise, if they are deciding that Hanc0ck is worth funding. I'm a shareholder in OMI too so I'm very happy about the news, but I fail to see how one good drill hole can raise the SP more than a likely funding partner for a project that could be in production in a matter of months rather than years. Let's hope things change here soon, I have a lot of faith that this will pan out, but what should be transformational news is having very little impact here at the minute which is pretty gutting.
It seems the markets aren’t much into speculating at the minute. Hopefully confirmation from AA will be more beneficial to the SP.
From there we are looking at - assuming a fairly low ball $20/tonne - $25m profit per annum or £21.6m, at a market cap of £27.5m at the minute, I think we can safely say this is undervalued. If the resource on Han**** expands by another few million tonnes that could give us another few years of production and substantially increase our NPV on that project. And this discounts all our other projects - Munni Munni, Brockman and Vivash Gorge, all of which are likely/hopefully bigger than Han****.
Maybe I’m dumb, but I don’t see how this wouldn’t increase by multiples from here, especially once our exploration is self-funded (I.e. no more dilution for shareholders).
Fenix’s costs are higher for two main reasons:
1. They have less surface iron ore - though they do have some at surface - so they have to work a bit harder to get it out.
2. They’re quite a bit further from their port than we are - though I can’t remember the exact difference off the top of my head.