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Morning folks, hope you be kind to update things for me. I havent checked in for a few years about this stock, I remember when this was a great share, it had one of the highest net margins about, then got hit with a short attack. I know they have been chasing a big argentine payout. When is this payout due, I read it was $7.5 billion, will the company get all of this? if they do how will it determine the share price? many thanks.

Up to date latest economists Uk interest rates forecasts--Economists are now expecting UK interest rates to remain around 5.50% to 5.75% for most of 2024 before starting to fall at the end of the year. UK Interest Rates are expected to fall by around 0.75% to 5% by mid-2025 and even further into 2026 where they are forecast to settle at around 4.5%.

This trading update did mention the fund fin solutions business section by stating--Their cash and liquidity situation remained solid, with adjusted net cash inflating 26% within six months, surpassing £142 million. Recently, Alpha introduced a new fund finance offering, which has already begun generating revenue.

Thanks, i know about that RNS from May, though first time i spotted the service now being advertised on their website. Overall alpha will grow revs consistently and exponentially, perhaps 20-22% steady yearly and still make money in good or bad years, It is the amount of cash alpha will make that will be significant. even though it is assumed and prob correct interest rates cant stay at 5% for ever, the new long term norm will be over 3%. and whether alpha list it on their net income or not, it is still there and will be used for high EPS for shareholders, much higher EPS than today.

the amount of free cash alpha will have can also be used to allow them to enter new markets, as they have said that they can use some of that cash to accelerate the business into new areas.

Is this new, or is it just me? is this the first time fund financing is on the company website, i have not not seen it before until today. prob just me lol.

https://www.alphagroup.com/institutional/fund-finance/

I use yahoo finance for all my stocks research, they have updated alpha today, 1st time in over a year, new EPS rates, net profits, growth rates etc and it has a new price target of £27. 17.

Golfnut, you have explained it well, can i add, as we are 30% held by insiders, 60% by instiutes and venture capital funds and only 5% retail. as was pointed out we arent on ftse trackers, or any international funds , we are bound and restricted by those that buy AIM stocks, and many of these are now at max allocation of what they will own of alpha. If we still had a huge retail % followers, , they would certainly bid this price up when they seen the earnings. I am sure other funds would if we could get into ftse 250 or international funds etc. My point is will be be held around this share price until these funds get access to alpha when we move to the ftse250. and will money be better use into more better known stocks, who have access to more institutes, then buy back in when alpha moves to ftse 250, this is a dilemma i have.

I once a chat to another poster on another stock chat room, who said he had given up with UK stocks and prefer US stocks, cos that is where the volume is and that is where investors give higher values to stocks. Indeed didnt we read about certain UK stocks in the news that only wanted to list in the US as they said a premium valuation is always given by the US market.

One of my pet hates is fund manager cathie wood, she pumps all loss making stocks saying they will repeat the same formula that loss making stocks did in the 13 yrs old bull market form 2009 to 2022, what she went wrong is interest rates were put at 0.5% due to the banking crisis, The norm now for years to come is 3.5% steady rates, loss making stocks cannot raise capital and will dilute. that is why only profitable companies will survive and grow over the next 10 yrs imo, such as alpha. remember we are already up 700% since ipo. History shows 100 bagger stocks had a starting ave sales of $140 million a year then went on to be 100 baggers stocks.

I have said it before alpha is a growth stock it should not be paying out any div at all, every penny it makes should be put back into the business to land and grow model, the money it has in cash at moment and end of year, will and is being used to further enlarge the is business, such as fund finance as they said in last report.

All stocks in history that become 50, 100 bagger stocks, never ever paid a div, until they reached maturity every penny was reinvested into the company, the metric we need to find isnt ROIC It is ROIIC, this metric will tell you the exact use of alphas profits. and payback of their usage.

does anyone know our ROIIC?.

watched a video with chuck akre about the 3 legged stool, he said the returns on capital is the ultimate measure of a successful company, he said mastercard has one of over 30%, the norm for most other stocks is 10%

Yes, the stock market is not right at all, I looked at a US stock today Palantir, $35 billion cap its up 200% in 2 months, growing revs at 23% a year, it unprofitable and only forecast to make its first ever profit this year of around £80 million, it runs on a 5% net profit, ( alpha runs on a 37% net margin) yes it has large revs, but tiny profit margin and it does have $4 billion in cash but it has increased its share count 300% from 700 million shares to 2 billion.

even removing the $ billion in cash, does it deserve a $35 billion cap with net profits of £80 million growing 23% a year??

it will produce 5 cents per share for holders, alpha does 73 pence a share!

interest rates will remain around 3.5% at the lowest for years to come.

you then realise how undervalued alpha is compared to numerous other stocks, all they do is mention AI and the stock goes ballistic.

The company said it was on-track to deliver a strong year of revenue and underlying profit growth, in line with expectations, though it didn't provide a specific figure. Two analysts from FactSet predict full-year revenue of GBP118.2 million, up from GBP98.3 million in 2022.

reported in marketwatch site

Error ---american stocks with PEG ratios over 3., not p/e of 3 !

Stocks coming off the lows of 2020 into 2021 would show a big bounce in earnings like alpha did, so when normality occurs 2022 2023 we see normal growth ratios. it is impossible to find a perfect 1.0 peg stocks . alpha said today this first 6 months was TEMP in slow down in deals, but they can still make good money even so. the market doesnt reward stocks growing at 5, 10% it gives them p/e of 5 or 10, but stocks growing 20, 25% normally gives them p/e of 30, 40, as growth stocks are bid up being quality.

WE havent even heard about the fund finance business yet and how much it will bring in. If revenue growth at min 20% and we keep the same net income model of around 37%, it is fair we should trade at a p/e of 30 plus. as its quality growth.

I have looked at US stocks this afternoon, many have p/e of over 3 with similar sales and earnings growth. and many have p/s of 15 and above.

In the share cast link i posted the ceo stated--“I am proud that the operational progress and investments that we have continued to make during this period remain very much long-term focussed.

sometimes you need to read the outlook and the views from the ceo and the words used to see negativity or positivity, and i have always think the ceo is thinking longterm. Markets tend to only look at quartely or half yearly reports.

Yes, I know the valuation of a stock to determine if it is under or overvalued is to add up all free cash flow earnings from today until the lifetime of the company discounted back minus the safe depository interest rates. Whilst we have a good earnings rates, the analysts will be looking at 20% growth as the norm, and a net margin of 37% to calculate all the free cash the company will generate in its lifetime. I dont think they will be looking at transitory income.

In my previous posts i look at comparable stocks with similar sales, earnings in the US, we should be a £3 to £4 billion stock if this was USA listed only. I do note that in the USA, stocks are rewarded more for sales growth ( even if they show no profits)as they say all the earnings are put back into the company in order to take huge market share and also pay no dividends or indeed no profits means no tax is needed to pay out either. I think alpha is a sensible company that needs more public profile raising in the UK market, then onwards to foreign investors too.

They are trading in line so they say, but earnings growth is trading higher, i ask do you prefer a company to increase sales faster then earnings or the other way around.

Nice summary here--

https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/alpha-group-ends-challenging-first-half-with-record-month--14112162.html

Good half year report, now with extra broker, revenues up, earnings up, some large trades today £ 1 million ones going thro, Business model working, company growing. cheap on a p/e basis., whats your opinion

You area bit rude, I only asked civil questions, I enjoy reading and commenting, so chin up as they say, so have you made loads, like folk did with tesla etc.