Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
MB. Apparently Turkish Airlines HAVE actually started flying to and from Freetown, starting just this month and via Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso): https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/THY534 . Flights TK533 and TK534.
I've got a ~160,000 forecast with numbers starting from mid-January. Did seem to be particularly busy around 20th January, though.
Turkish Airlines are having to delay opening some of their planned new routes because of the delays opening the new Istanbul Airport (the hub where they are due to operate from). It was due to open on the third of this month but has been put back a month because they don't want to open it before it is ready (they have elections coming up on the 31st of this month and don't want to risk any negative publicity). So we've still got those extra flights to add to the numbers when they do get themselves sorted out.
I posted a link to rumours about this some time ago but it's now the top headline story on the Fars News (English) site: http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13971216000410
(Fars News are a "semi-official" news agency of the Government of Iran)
“President Rouhani: Trump's Demands for Meeting Rejected 8 Times
TEHRAN (FNA)- Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that he has 8 times rejected his US counterpart Donald Trump's demand for talks during the 2017 trip to New York to participate in the UN General Assembly conference, stressing the need for Washington to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal.
"Today, we do not have any way but resistance. During the 2017 visit to New York, the US administration demanded 8 times for meeting with the US president and in the year 2018, 5 world leaders mediated for this meeting. I told them that conditions and time are not appropriate. The US should first return to the nuclear deal and admit their mistake," President Rouhani said, addressing the officials of Gilan province's administrative council on Thursday.
"They are after negotiations. We do not escape from negotiations either, and are associated with negotiation. Since I am specialized in negotiations, I powerfully say that we do not fear the negotiating table and our logic is so much strong and framed that we can stand against the US (officials) or any other individuals," he added.
President Rouhani underscored that Iran neither fears the battle ground nor the negotiations, saying that the Iranian officials love their country's national interests and will not compromise on it.
Senior diplomatic sources in Tehran had revealed last month that Trump was seriously attempting to open a channel to hold direct talks with his Iranian counterpart and travel to the country.
"The US is not so much serious in the current sanctions given the waivers granted to certain countries… and it is trying to make a communication bridge to Iran," Amir Moussavi, a former Iranian diplomat, told the Arabic-language al-Mayadeen news channel.
"Based on information I have, a message was sent from Washington (via mediators) for direct talks with Mr. Rouhani. Even Mr. Trump has voiced readiness to visit Tehran," he added.
Moussavi said that Iran has rejected Trump's demand for a visit to Tehran, adding that one of the mediators is Oman.
"Two European states, two Arab countries and one Southeast Asian state are the mediators," he said, adding that the messages had been sent from Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Moussavi said that Iran had an important condition for talks as it did not want talks for talks and talks for just taking pictures.
"Iran's most important condition is that Trump should return to the (2015) nuclear deal from which it has withdrawn. Iran has sent this message to Washington via mediators," he said.”
Who will blink first... :)
A Radio Farda journalist is stating that this is the second day in a row that Rouhani has been talking about not being afraid to sit down for new negotiations with the US, adding that the differences are not unsolvable...
Rouhani today: "I'm a career negotiator and have no fear of negotiating with the US."
https://www.isna.ir/amp/97121508444/
Russia have made a plan for normalization of the situation in the Persian Gulf and presented it to those countries (presumably Iran, UAE, Saudi, Qatar, etc.).
It sounds like a few things are coming together...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-instex/iran-hopes-trade-channel-skirting-u-s-sanctions-will-work-within-weeks-idUSKCN1QN1VS
Sounds like it will be expanded too.
Apparently the Iranians are hoping to have their side set up in the next fortnight or so, and a UK team are going over to help next week.
True enough. All I would add is not to underestimate the desire of Trump and Netanyahu to implement the Deal of the Century. They are worried about Iran and Hezbollah as a result and need to do something about them before this under-reported 'pledge' can be enacted.
Interesting to see that 'we' 'banned' Hezbollah the other day, in part for “Its involvement in the Syrian civil war, since 2012, (which) continues to prolong the conflict and the regime’s brutal and violent repression of the Syrian people.” - UK Gov. website.
Which is odd because in Syria Hezbollah have been fighting against Al Nusra (Al Qaeda in Syria), ISIS and the 'Free Syrian Army' ('our' ally who actually fight alongside Al Nusra/Al Qaeda!: http://aranews.net/files/2015/01/syrian-rebels-report-gains-hezbollah-kalamoon/ ). All whilst being bombed by Israel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War - what is going on!?
I'm sure that they're no angels themselves but it's pretty wild when you think that we're banning and sanctioning a group who fight against the perpetrators of 9/11 (but are now our allies) and against the group responsible for the Manchester bombing, Paris attacks, etc.! One day I'm sure that the whole story will come out but I guess this latest move is to appease US and Israel and a step towards that 'peace' plan, but it probably also affects Iran via their FATF measures (Iran support Hezbollah), so that will be interesting to watch.
Trump, Netanyahu and Kushner will be desperate to get their plan in place this year for multiple reasons (e.g. “They can't possibly impeach me; I've created peace in the Middle East!”), so I'm optimistic about a breakthrough on Iran sanctions a lot sooner than 2020 – even if it is a shadow deal via the EU and INSTEX instead of Trump directly. Either way, I agree that the apparent US desperation to get a new deal is very positive for our longer term play in Iran – how many airports!?
Thanks, I couldn't copy the link from the phone! It's been very very quiet from the US over recent days...
From yesterday (on the eve of the Vienna JCPOA meeting):
"State ISN Bureau Retweeted US-UN Mission Vienna
Amb Wolcott: We are offering Iran possibility of normal relationships with intl community: end to all US sanctions, full diplomatic & commercial relationships, support modernizing economy into intl system. But Iran must show its nuclear program will remain exclusively peaceful."
Could be a change in stance, as close to a plea as you'll get from a desperate Trump, or that the US Departments are just all singing from different hymn sheets over the demands on Iran!
In definite positive news: The French and Iranians have re-installed ambassadors to each other after about 6 months.
https://twitter.com/SimonPenneyHMTC/status/1102575380043571200
Simon Penney (Her Majesty's Trade Commissioner for the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan), at 14:23 today: "On my way to Iran to spend time with the excellent DIT Iran team in Tehran and Shiraz before Nowruz (Iranian New Year). Looking forward to helping the team boost ???? & ???? trade in some of our key sectors."
I wonder what those "key sectors" are.... If you open the tweet, there's a gif file with the "Top 5 services exported from the UK to Iran in 2018". What's #1 on the list? "Travel" with a picture of an aeroplane heading towards the UK.
Err, have a little read back of your last 3 posts, Foxhill:
You yesteday: “I’ve had no direct conversations about this. I can’t believe that we’re charging the Iranians £/$2m a month just to train personnel or how that relates to the security levy coming to us courtesy of pax departing. Could someone please explain?”
You today (pt.1): “Don’t think it so much of explaining it to me. I’m sure there are others looking in that are confused as to how we might be justifying $2m a month just to do training.”
[it was subsequently explained to you]
You today (pt.2): “Etin - I know what WSG offer and how the cost is recovered from passenger fees levied. I’m curious as to why Iran is held up as a training contract as distinct from the arrangement in SL?”
1) Evidently you *didn't* “know how the the cost is recovered from passenger fees” (or pretended not to know) because you previously said “I can’t believe that we’re charging the Iranians £/$2m a month...” - we're not doing that.
2) You also said that you “know what WSG offer”, despite previously saying that WSG were “*just* to train personnel.” - read again what WSG offer from their own site and look back at the RNSs about having to source alternative equipment, etc. There will be up-keep of that equipment and updates to it, all with a view to keeping everything up to the quoted international standards. Also there's the insurance matter – I'm guessing that's not for 'just training'.
Your standards have fallen even further :)
Back on the 'ignore list' you go!
P.S. Each project is surely going to be different and we offer bespoke solutions, don't we. I'm guessing that the security guards in Iran won't be wearing ties or even 'Westminster branded' clothing, for example: http://www.wg-foundation.org/index.php/category/news/page/2/
If still confused about what WSG do (why at this stage!?), they could/should ask the company directly.
Also, I believe that our recurring revenues come from the airlines, so no single entity will be paying us $2m per month. Since that figure is proportional to the traffic through the airport, our interests, those of the airport operator and those of Iran itself are all aligned on that issue; more is better. Whilst the PAX numbers initially may make it lower than $2m at the beginning, I doubt that the operator will be upset if we are eventually taking more than $2m per month, because it will mean that the project is successful for them too.
https://www.wass-ltd.com/about/
“The WASS Build Operate Transfer (BOT) programme provides manned services include search and screening together with the provision of surveillance and detection equipment through to Immigration services, advanced passenger information profiling, and asset protection.
The WASS Build Maintain Train (BMT) programme provides operational training and management support together with the provision of surveillance and detection equipment through to Immigration services, advanced passenger information profiling, and asset protection.
WASS can tailor our various unique innovative programmes and solutions to assist airport operators in bringing the security within their airports up to and maintaining them to recognised international standards.
WASS will work with the airport authorities and state organisations to enhance airport security by providing all the required investment and expertise to bring the country’s airport security up to international standards and maintain those standards for the duration of the contract.
Airports have always been major gateways into and out of any country and the experience passengers and visitors encounter while travelling through such facilities can have lasting effects on business, tourism and investment.
There are many issues that can affect the passenger experience of an airport – the condition of the airport and its facilities, the transportation access to and from the airport, the availability of services and facilities (shops, restaurants and other amenities) but two key issues that have an effect on the passengers sense of well being are their security while passing through the airport and the speed, efficiency and manner in which security services are conducted.
WASS has the experience, expertise and the technology to provide complete security solutions to airports not only in terms of consultancy and design but also in operational management, technology and manpower.
As part of the initial process WASS can audit and review the National Aviation Security Programme, Airport Security Plan, Policy and Standard Operating Procedures.
Airports and airlines require a unique range of security measures, from protecting the restricted areas and the aircraft on the ground via a command and control centre to advanced passenger profiling and CCTV monitoring of passengers and staff, conducting cabin security checks, ensuring cargo, airport and in-flight supplies are screened, right through to the protection of the flight deck and cabin crew stopovers.
Whatever the requirements WASS has the solution.”
Remember that the Iranians have been meeting with Europeans regarding which measures they need to take to improve their banking sector, make INSTEX work and join FATF. In the past few days the following have happened:
- Rouhani publicly endorsed FATF and indicated Khamenei's tacit approval for it.
- He also called on armed forces to leave the economy.
- Iranian MPs passed a measure requiring the central bank to set a threshold for banks to report transactions and request documents if needed.
- Defence Minister Hatami pledged to "soon announce news about armed news about armed forces totally ending their commercial enterprises and economic activities."
- Announcement about merging the lenders linked with military "to enforce regulations on investment activities and financial transparency".
- The Parliament passed a measure that prohibits the three branches of power from receiving bank interests.
- Several Iranian officials basically saying that they are now waiting to see what the Europeans will offer Iran in return for joining FATF. Presumably they hope to receive wider trade and oil sale guarantees within INSTEX first and don't want another JCPOA style let down!
I didn't make it clear but the Netanyahu corruption charges and Cohen's testimony against Trump were what I was referring to. Trump's caper in NK won't help him either - he looks even more foolish now!
A very good couple of questions, Slipperz!
Ha, yeah, I spotted that earlier too, Gibbo. Wrote a post about it - nearly identical to what you've put - but my browser crashed! Just got back in to see that we're not far off the chat leader boards today. Evidently some interest about ;)
Sounds like Trump AND Netanyahu could be in a bit of bother! Elections in Israel soon...