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According to Fars news, Amir Mousavi (a former Iranian diplomat) said last week that Trump and Kushner asked Iran if Trump could travel to Tehran for talks with Rouhani. Tehran apparently rejected it because they have 'pre-conditions' and don't just want a photo opportunity.
He also said that five countries are involved in mediation between the US and Iran: two ME, two European and one South-East Asian. (I'd guess Iraq and Oman in the ME, Switzerland and maybe Italy in EU, and possibly Indonesia in SE Asia.)
Iran may need to up the ante a bit and force the US hand, perhaps, before anything comes of this kind of thing, but it is encouraging to see signs of mediators playing a part, plus Iran are talking about wanting more peaceful relations with other ME countries. It may come to nothing but the fact that Kushner is apparently involved and the timing is just before that Warsaw conference (where his "Deal of the Century" will get some air-time) is interesting.
The first sale after 8am was at 10.35 and the first buy was at 10.7. There were then some sells at 10.25 before all of the buys at 10.49 to 11p.
There were lots of negotiated trades/OILQ/non-protected portfolio trades from then onwards, as the SP rose back to 10.75. Those OILQs being part of a pre-arranged transfer of shares? Somebody wanted them and was still receiving them up until the bell:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GB00B1XLC220GBGBXASQ1&formName=frmRow&upToRow=-1
Transfer set to continue on Monday?
I was getting quoted north of 11p for 100k plus and there were periods where it was impossible to buy anything more than 10k. Barely any sells during the day.
Chairman of the Majlis National Security Committee:
"After celebrating the 40th Anniversary, we should gradually create conditions (i.e. reforms/anti-corruption measures) so that Americans come to us for negotiations."
Ah, I missed your point then, MB. I thought you were referring to the possibility of talks full stop.
I agree that Trump is unlikely to come out saying "sorry" and Iran won't either. The main points that were interesting to me were that the goalposts have moved significantly i.e. that it is now not necessary for the US to re-join JCPOA before Iran will talk and that the speech was delivered to a room full of diplomats and ambassadors - some of whom may be involved in the intermediary talks that I think are happening.
The path is a lot clearer for talks now, imo, as all Trump has to do is apparently say some nice(r) things, as opposed to re-joining a deal that he and the Israel lobby have been slating. This means a change from an impossible precondition (for the US) to one that is most definitely possible. And all broadcast to people who can pass the message on and get things moving.
One scenario could be that Trump and the US announce something like the following:
"My maximum pressure campaign has worked brilliantly and Iran are now a completely different country to when I came in. The Iranians have been helpful in trying to end the conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria, have moved their missiles back from Israeli borders, etc. These were the conditions that I demanded and they have been met. As a result of my successful campaign, I am lifting some sanctions on some essential items with Iran because they have indicated a willingness to talk about a new, better deal. This could lead to peace in the Middle East like we've never known before - the best peace ever in fact... really peaceful. The Iranian nation has a rich history and I'm sure that we can cut a brilliant deal for the US and for them, creating jobs, etc. etc...."
The Iranians could rejoice at having survived the sanctions and 'won' by having some lifted, all whilst maintaining the moral high-ground and 'resisting'. They have been talking about wanting peace in the region and this would be good for them.
Like I say, I was very interested to read that all that's needed now is something relatively easy, as opposed to re-joining a "terrible" deal. Therefore, I disagree with AIMing about this not making it any easier for Trump to have discussions - remember he seems the most desperate to talk!
No offense taken, btw - it's good to discuss! I think that this could inherently be part of the WSG story but appreciate not wanting to clog the board up too much. Good luck :)
Just going back to what you said yesterday, Masterbaker: "This is where there is a wall, built on politics, ideology, beliefs and culture. It ain't never gonna happen, with Trump or any other USA president... unless a Shia Iranian, is ever elected for president."
I would say who would have thought that the US would be sat at a negotiating table with the Taliban, or North Korea?
Trump is a vain man, which is why I think speaking to Iran would appeal to him. He's even said it himself enough times. When asked the other day about whether he would ever use the US base in Iraq to attack Iran, he repeatedly said that he only wanted to 'watch' them. It would have been so easy for him to say "nothing is off the table" but he didn't - even when pressed on it. To me, this suggests that maybe he has agreed with Iran (presumably through intermediaries) not to threaten them with military action in public any more - perhaps Iran will do the same re. Israel. There are so many signs out there that there have probably been talks already; most likely through EU for the US and via Russia for Israel.
The Israeli lobby within the US pressed for these sanctions on Iran. I think that they and the US thought it would all be over quickly and that Iran would be negotiating by now - look at the chaos around the time of the November sanctions. The US didn't appear to have a clue as to what they were doing with all the waivers and conflicting reports, last minute changes, etc.
Now, both they and the US need Iran on-side before brokering the "Deal of the Century" with the Palestinians. It's in everybody's interests to reach some kind of compromise deal, and quickly: The 2020 campaign will start relatively soon and Iran is struggling. Imagine if Trump and Kushner created peace in the Middle East - his Evangelical fan base would go wild for it.
Military engagement against Iran is pretty much a non-starter, for a multitude of reasons. Quite why most of the press fear-mongers regarding a conflict is interesting - could this be part of the "maximum pressure" campaign?
Anyway, just my thoughts on it :)
I can't even buy 10k :(
Top of the chat board today.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said yesterday that Iran would be ready to establish "friendly relations" with the United States if it apologized for past wrongs.
""Our slogan is friendly relations with the whole world," he said.
That would even include "America, if it repents... and apologizes for its previous interferences in Iran, and is prepared to accept the greatness and dignity of the nation of Iran and the great Islamic Revolution," he said.
"We are still ready to accept America's... repentance despite the fact that for years it has done injustice to us," he told foreign diplomats in Tehran during a ceremony to mark the 40th anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution."
This was significant because it was to a room full of international diplomats. Also, I didn't see any mention of the need for the US to re-join the JCPOA before Iran will talk; now they 'only' need to apologise in some way.
A few days ago, Trump said to "wait and see" on Iran, having previously said that he "thinks" that they're "ready to talk." ...
https://armaneghtesadi.com/en/19612/2019/02/06/germany-defies-us-sanctions-to-develop-iran-ties-envoy
"Germany defies US sanctions to develop Iran ties: envoy
on: Wednesday, 6 February 2019 - 18:21
Germany defies US sanctions to develop Iran ties: envoy
ECONOMIC IDEAL – Tehran, Feb 6, IRNA- Berlin says it will push to develop ties with Iran, ignoring the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the economic sanctions.
Germany defies US sanctions to develop Iran ties: envoy
“Despite the US abandoning of the JCPOA and implementation of all sanctions and the hardship, Berlin ignores such problems and continues its efforts to develop relations with Iran and preserve its economic advantages,” said German Ambassador to Iran, Michael Klor-Berchtold on Wednesday, referring to the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The German diplomat said his country is in talks with France and the UK to bring on board all the European Union member states as well as other countries to facilitate economic relations with Iran.
He made the remarks in Tehran following the signing of several Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) with Iran Technical and Vocational Training Organization (TVTO).
Klor-Berchtold praised the “big success” in vocational training cooperation between Germany and Iran.
German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) has organized a two-day specialized workshop on vocational training in Tehran jointly with the Iranian organization supervising technical and vocational education."
The timing of Venezuelan things is also interesting: Kicks up a gear shortly after Trump pulls out of the ME and all of those apparent concessions between Iran and the US. Also, in a massive coincidence INSTEX is announced (which I think has US approval), just as Trump turns his sights to Venezuela. The EU (who INSTEX benefits) then also echo the US position about Venezuela and announce that they recognise the same 'random guy' as President there.
I might start recognising Sanders as US President...
* Specifically the Japanese company: JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy
-INSTEX was announced last week.
- South Korea announced today that they are to start importing Iranian condensate again this month. This will be their first imports since September last year.
- Japan have also announced today that they are about to begin importing Iranian crude; 3 months after their waiver was granted.
"Confusion surrounding shipping, insurance and banking rules under the US sanctions kept some of the countries from resuming imports for months after the US granted waivers on November 5."
Evidently that confusion has now gone! :)
OK, Doc. Throughout this whole process, do you think nobody bothered to consult the various relevant domestic players in Iran, bearing in mind that it's been signed after all of the "internal approval processes" - Parliament/Guardian/Expediency councils? Look at what is happening with the FATF discussions, for example. Do you not think that the IRGC would have gotten wind of it before the contract signing!? The hardliners will have had their say on it already and have evidently approved of it.
Also, at our end there will have been guidance from e.g. the British Iranian Chamber of Commerce, UKEF, etc. Then there is the due diligence and insurance.
By the way, all the doctors I know would be absolutely astounded that you managed to spend a 'snow day' contributing to a message board. Wow. :/
Ha, you beat me to it, Humanbait! ;)
Your story about the IRGC is from 2004. Outlooks will have changed since then; a good indication being that the contract has been signed.
The following letter sent from the E3 to Pompeo and Mnuchin in June 2018 outlines the priorities of the EU:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/714262/Joint_E3_letter_on_JCPoA.pdf
“... we specifically request you to:
- grant exemptions from US sanctions for EU companies that initiated or concluded their contracts after JCPoA Implementation Day (16 January 2016).
- give public confirmation of areas of business that are exempt from US secondary sanctions, such as pharmaceuticals, healthcare; and grant exemptions to allow for economic relationships in key sectors, in particular in the fields of energy, automotive, civil aviation and infrastructure.”
Signed by Le Maire, Le Drian, Scholz, Maas, Altmaier, Johnson, Hammond, and Mogherini.
Although we're not engaged in selling sanctioned aeroplanes, the above gives an idea as to what the EU are most eager to support: 'Civil aviation' and 'infrastructure' are encouraging.
This, along with the facts that we got UK Government support for the Iran contract and that our services are not sanctioned, will hopefully put us quite high on the list of early candidates for INSTEX usage.
Perhaps the US may even look favourably upon a British company enacting improved security at Iranian airports.
Need to set up the Iranian side of INSTEX first. The Europeans said they'd help do this.
Meanwhile, there are some suggestions that the formation of INSTEX may convince banks to start opening channels again.
Another update for anyone who's interested:
On her way into a meeting just now, Mogherini mentioned the SPV-INSTEX and said that the "mechanism will allow for legitimate trade to continue." She also described how they are continuing to talk "with our US allies", including Pompeo. Again, this could indicate that INSTEX has US approval.
wp5, they've already named squares, football teams and train stations after Trump. It's just that they're in Israel:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-has-to-stop-naming-things-after-trump/
Couldn't agree with this line more: “These efforts to honor Trump are dangerously short-sighted for Israel.”
I feel really sorry for all of those Israelis who can see him for what he really is and are rightly worried about the association :/
It could be argued that those who enabled, promoted and financed him (knowing what he's like) are of at least equal culpability to where we (and the rest of the world) find ourselves. Hopefully Mueller will come up with something useful and expand his investigations into Israeli and Saudi influence too...
Yep, looks like someone has been trying to 'massage' it down over the past couple of days, possibly whilst accumulating back: Roughly 110k either side yesterday (ignoring the 40k black trade after hours) and yet the SP went down ~3%. Crafty work with the FOK-buy combo!