The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Not only has his resignation been rejected but he got public support from Rouhani, Soleimani (IRGC Major General), international diplomats and nearly all of the Iranian press (including some very conservative papers). So his position will have been strengthened. Some suggestions that this was for his own internal benefit (it certainly has helped him) but I guess it could also be a warning shot to the EU and US - Pompeo even commented on it yesterday. He's straight back to work today; greeting the Prime Minister of Armenia today, alongside Rouhani.
Interesting yesterday to also hear Rouhani saying very publicly that FATF should be endorsed and that it had tacit approval of Khameini - not sure he'd do that unless Khameini was actually in favour.
OK, thanks.
OK. Was that announced before or after the contract got split up? I notice we funded SL from existing funds at the time and it looks like we had £0.4m in cash two months before that landed.
To quote the FULL news story:
"Iran is to inaugurate a new terminal at the Imam Khomeini International Airport in the new Iranian year (starts on March 21,2019).
The Minister of Road Development and Urban Planning Mohammad Eslami has visited the early testing of Salam Terminal at the Imam Khomeini airport on Saturday while inaugurating the second test for the Iran Air company, Trend reports citing Fars News Agency.
"Salam Terminal has been tested and it would be inaugurated in the upcoming 40 days," he said.
The official noted that Salam Terminal has the capacity of 5 million passengers per year that would operate for experiment in the spring.
"The progress in the terminal has been appropriate and most of the equipment have been installed, while part of working staff have been deployed to the area. The terminal will be inaugurated after the final test," he added.
He noted that the project will be inaugurated completely once all the facilities, including parking areas are ready.
Iran plans to expand the Imam Khomeini Airport to boost its aviation service and economy. It is expected to construct Iranshahr terminal in the future, a mega terminal that would have annual capacity of 25 million passengers, with eventual expansion to 100 million."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I.e. not all of the equipment and personnel were even on the site as he made the announcement during the "second test". Whilst that doesn't prove either way whether we'll be involved from the start (IRGC could initially organise both terminals I suppose - especially as it sounds like it will not be up to full speed straight away), I'd be interested to know where they are getting the scanners, etc. from if not us/our chosen suppliers. They make some of that kind of stuff in Iran, or may transfer it in from another airport (unlikely) but I've seen European suppliers of other airport equipment - who I know have IKIA as a customer - removing the evidence of it from their company websites. I wonder who our new choice of suppliers were in place of those that had US exposure/parts. I also assume that we didn't get that waiver we were enquiring about...
Finally, from my notes: In the September 2018 Half Year report: “Plans are in place to raise further funds to support the Iranian contract and the other expected new Managed Services airport contract and we expect to complete this exercise in Q4.” and: "We expect to secure funding in Q4 2018 for our Iranian contract and to support the further growth of the business, for which planning is already in place.” - This ended up happening in February, when we still had a fair amount of cash – is that correct, or are we expecting another type of funding with a statement about being soley “for Iran” before we go? I guess trying to keep a low profile might come into it – as per the other EU companies I know of who have dealt with IKIA... Who know
Yes, they still hold their 13,133,333 shares from 2017: http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=WSG&ArticleCode=3lyehcq5&ArticleHeadline=Holdings_in_Company
Yes, hardly the biggest surprise in the world - I think he's done it a few times privately! He announced this via Instagram which the Iranian public have access to (as opposed to Twitter, which they seem to use more for international consumption), and straight off of the back of that very well-received speech, like you say. Apparently they are pulling out all the stops to try and make him change his mind. Did say that the ante may need to be upped a bit!
...
Iran has 10x the population of Israel and more than Israel, UAE and Saudi combined, so there would be chaos. Netanyahu has publicly stated he is planning for war against Iran, so he would be accused of being a war criminal by the UN for instigating a war of aggression and the World would hate him for it. UAE's tourism industry would be decimated, etc.
So, whilst I disagree with you that the intention was ever for regime change, I agree with you that I don't think it will happen! I think it was a bluff, as part of the 'maximum pressure' campaign. As you have hinted, there is an impasse, though, which is why I think it must have at least occurred to all parties to use INSTEX as a face-saving way of moving forwards. Nothing else makes sense to me as things stand and from what we see happening. Remember that the Iranians have said that the Americans need to rethink their strategy if they want to talk.
There has definitely been movement by both sides. Re. FATF, Bolton tweeted about it on Saturday, indicating that it is important to him. Also, Iran have agreed 2 of the 4 FATF amendments since the US sanctions have been in place. Do you think Bolton, etc. would rather see a favourable outcome for the hard-liners on that issue? Re. Syria and Yemen, there are peace talks in progress, and Russia are mediating between Iran and Israel over where the Iranians can and can't be in Syria. Re. missiles, the Iranians recently said that they are not intending to increase their range and are talking about having achieved their aims in Syria now.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree! :P Fingers crossed we get at least one piece of good news in the run-up to the new terminal opening, though! :)
P.S. By future concessions, I mean things like more oil sanction waivers and an expansion of the scope of INSTEX and the parties who can use it. All of which are publicly discussed already.
No, Slipperz, but I studied ME-West relations, politics and history ;)
I don't think that the hawks were ever actually intending to get regime change – that would suit nobody. We have to remember that this is a 'hijacked' White House, and it's working in the interests of those who got Trump elected, namely: extreme right-wing Zionists, Russians, Saudis and probably the UAE. The evidence for this is overwhelming: Lifting of sanctions against Russians, whitewashing of Saudi crimes, Putin off-the-record meeting with Trump, nuclear tech being sent to Saudi, Kushner advising MbS on Khashoggi fallout, Nord Stream 2 sounding like it will now go ahead, US leaving Syria to the benefit of Russia (and, ironically, Iran), aid to Palestinians dropped, numerous Trump aides already in trouble with Mueller, sanctions against Iran at the request of Adelson, and I've never seen Netanyahu as happy as when Trump moved the embassy to Jerusalem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6F9jfjSwWs
The next step is that Deal of the Century that Netanyahu family friend Kushner is organising. However, the sanctions on Iran were supposed to have done the job by now to facilitate that. The Palestinians are being cornered into accepting a bad deal, against the backdrop of demoralising land theft, worldwide Islamaphobia and the rise of right-wing governments who will not support them. Netanyahu is playing a dangerous game by supporting those right-wing parties around the world and allying with the 'Jewish Power' party in Israel. Many Jews I know are worried about what he is doing and even AIPAC criticised him about it today. Iran is not playing ball, though. A strong regional Iran means that they have leverage on behalf of the Palestinians. So the date for the deal keeps having to be put back whilst Iran resists. That impasse could, of course, be overcome if what I suggested is correct and that INSTEX forms the basis for further cooperation, including ultimately on Palestinian-Israeli peace. Indeed, Netanyahu is due to meet with Putin to discuss Iran's presence in Syria next week.
It's important to consider the above because Kushner and Trump would never have planned for arranging the Deal of the Century by now AND regime change in Iran, because regime change in the ME requires military intervention and is protracted. It would be nothing like Venezuela even, because the US have initiated a coup in Iran before and the population still hate them for it! There is near zero chance of the IRGC accepting Trump/Israeli overtures.
Also, the fallout of making such a thing happen would also be dire for everybody nearby. Imagine the oil prices and how that would affect Trump's popularity. The EU, Turkey, Qatar, Lebanon, Iraq and most American's would be against it.
...
https://www.aviationpros.com/airports/news/21068803/iran-to-inaugurate-new-terminal-at-imam-khomeini-airport
"Iran to Inaugurate New Terminal at Imam Khomeini Airport
Feb. 16--TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran is to inaugurate a new terminal at the Imam Khomeini International Airport in the new Iranian year (starts on March 21,2019). The Minister of Road Development and Urban Planning Mohammad Eslami has visited the
February 18, 2019
Feb. 16--TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran is to inaugurate a new terminal at the Imam Khomeini International Airport in the new Iranian year (starts on March 21,2019).
The Minister of Road Development and Urban Planning Mohammad Eslami has visited the early testing of Salam Terminal at the Imam Khomeini airport on Saturday while inaugurating the second test for the Iran Air company, Trend reports citing Fars News Agency.
"Salam Terminal has been tested and it would be inaugurated in the upcoming 40 days," he said.
The official noted that Salam Terminal has the capacity of 5 million passengers per year that would operate for experiment in the spring.
"The progress in the terminal has been appropriate and most of the equipment have been installed, while part of working staff have been deployed to the area. The terminal will be inaugurated after the final test," he added.
He noted that the project will be inaugurated completely once all the facilities, including parking areas are ready.
Iran plans to expand the Imam Khomeini Airport to boost its aviation service and economy. It is expected to construct Iranshahr terminal in the future, a mega terminal that would have annual capacity of 25 million passengers, with eventual expansion to 100 million."
"Most of the equipment have been installed" and "part of working staff have been deployed". What was our recent fund raise for?
Straight from the US Holocaust Museum:
"Early warning signs of Fascism:
- Powerful and continuing nationalism
- Disdain for human rights
- Identification of enemies as a unifying cause
- Supremacy of the military
- Rampant sexism
- Controlled mass media
- Obsession with national security
- Religion and government intertwined
- Corporate power protected
- Labor [sic] power suppressed
- Disdain for intellectuals & the arts
- Obsession with crime & punishment
- Rampant cronyism & corruption
- Fraudulent elections"
I'm pretty sure that INSTEX has tacit approval from the US. For example,
- Jeremy Hunt met Pompeo in the US on 24th January. Exactly one week letter Hunt was announcing INSTEX with Maas and Le Drian.
- The US response to it was muted to say the least. You would have expected them to kick off with more of a fuss if they were genuinely perturbed by it.
- The Iranian and US concessions prior to its formation, along with talks of secret negotiations are hard to justify otherwise.
- INSTEX is a way for all parties to win: The US have actually managed to get Iran to dial down the rhetoric, begin approving FATF measures and they are now talking about peace in Syria and Yemen. The Iranians have the start of a payment channel which will be upgraded over time (and presumably as rewards for continued good behaviour and negotiations over missiles and prisoners). The US seem to have changed from their own extreme confrontational language and are pulling out of the region - both of which are/were other Iranian requests. Europe obviously benefit from gradually beginning to trade with Iran again and maintaining the JCPOA.
- Nobody loses face.
- After INSTEX, the US has moved swiftly on to their next 'target' in Venezuela. Why would they do this if they were still worried about Iran? They've tended to publicly attack one country at a time in recent years (which is wonderfully convenient).
The fact that no mainstream news commentators are even contemplating this viewpoint tells you all you need to know about the quality of the press and/or their censoring by governments, imo. It seems valid to me but anything beyond something that can be explained in a bite-size headline is now 'conspiracy' or 'fake news'.
Indeed, Jimzi. Also, Pompeo even said the other day that there are no preconditions for US negotiations with NK *because* they have nukes!
This is also due to happen in the next 4 weeks or so:
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/02/22/1953300/3-airplanes-to-join-iran-air-s-fleet-by-year-end-ceo-says
"The three planes are planned to be imported from some Western countries, she said without providing more details on the issue."
Definitely a different (Limited Liability/Ltd.) company. I came across them a year or two ago and was confused initially!
Probably; I definitely remember reading that somewhere, Gibbo. Last I heard they still have that order on their books and are awaiting permission. ATR's situation is complicated by their return to the US market recently.
Was thinking it may be relevant for some of our employees out there.
http://rfblegal.co.uk/latest-news/478-2019-02-police-investigations.html
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/142735/CAO-issues-permit-for-airlines-to-import-planes
"20 February 2019 - 15:17
CAO issues permit for airlines to import planes
TEHRAN, Feb. 20 (MNA) – Iran's Civil Aviation Organization (CAO) has given the green light to the domestic airlines to purchase and import planes, head of CAO said on Wednesday.
Ali Abedzadeh said CAO has issued the necessary permits for the domestic airlines to import airplanes, independent of the government.
“The new planes will join the aviation fleet in near future,” he added.
Regarding the financial hurdles which have been caused by the US’s unilateral sanctions against the Islamic republic, the official said the airlines have established their own financial mechanisms to facilitate the transactions.
He did not provide further details about the name of the countries cooperating with the Iranian importers. However, Seyed Ahsan Alavi, a member of the Parliament, said yesterday that Iraq and Turkey had expressed readiness to establish especial entities to help Iran’s plane imports."
Seems like quite a change in tone from the US administration yesterday: https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1097829074351710208
This comes after Mogherini spoke to Pompeo and then Zarif in quick succession on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference at the weekend. Iran did previously say that they were not impressed with the threatening language being used (likewise the US re. Israel).
Rouhani also said a couple of days ago that: "Iran is ready to work with regional states to preserve security in the Middle East."
"We want to establish brotherly ties with all countries of the region... Iran has never started any aggression in the region."
He certainly is, JungleLand. However, Kushner and Netanyahu go waaaay back! Kushner's father and Netanyahu were literally friends:
“(Jared Kushner) knew the prime minister, who was friendly with his father, a real estate developer and donor to Israeli causes. Mr. Netanyahu had even stayed at the Kushners’ home in New Jersey, sleeping in Jared’s bedroom. (The teenager moved to the basement that night.)”
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/11/us/politics/jared-kushner-israel.html?_r=0
However, my estimation is that Trump will do everything he can to support Kushner's peace plan because it's what his major backer (Adelson) wants him to do, plus he needs to do something to get more votes for 2020: I'm sure that a ME peace plan would tick that box, in his opinion. He can't get that deal across the line without Palestinian support. Needless to say, Iran have a say too, as they hold leverage against Israel on behalf of the Palestinians.
Like I've said a few times, I believe that Netanyahu is a key part of this and may turn out to be part of Mueller's investigation: https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1095068787810934784