The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
It does look that way. I've not heard the US explicitly say that Iran want talks before. Funny that Iran immediately came back with an accusation that it's the US that have been trying to contact them! Each side 'accusing' the other of wanting to hold talks - hmmm...
Could just be coincidental that Bolton is doing an extensive tour of the region at the same time ;)
https://youtu.be/cTHzdE0IunU
"They're not doing well. They want to talk." (A few days after him displaying that sanctions poster - i.e. 'Look, my sanctions have worked!')
Also, this came up: "#US made contacts with me in #Afghanistan in an attempt for negotiations with #Iran, said Iran's Supreme National Security Council (#SNSC) Ali Shamkhani https://t.co/2FhmM51Mi9"
https://twitter.com/Tasnimnews_EN/status/1082172266614583297?s=19
Could be the US trying to force them to talk publicly, instead of behind closed doors/with the EU. Interesting that Trump also mentions the Iranian withdrawals that I'd noticed a while back.
SPV could soon become immaterial: Trump stated publicly today that Iran "want to talk"...
:)
I wouldn't have thought so, Iran still want the sanctions lifting and Israel would like some kind of written guarantee about Iranians not getting near their border in Syria (even more urgently now). Therefore it would still be mutually beneficial imo. Trump has, apparently, put pressure on Israel to make that call now by withdrawing from the region. Remember Trump's tweet at the time: "Does the USA want to be the Policeman of the Middle East, getting NOTHING but spending precious lives and trillions of dollars protecting others who, in almost all cases, do not appreciate what we are doing" - sounded like he'd lost patience with Israel! These sanctions were supposed to have done the job by now, I think.
Also, as he said the other day, he'd "love to talk" to the Iranians, but presumably can only do that when the Israelis are happy/happier and the Iranians have something positive that they can take home to their people: e.g. "The resistance was successful and we've beaten the American sanctions because we got 'xyz' out of them before negotiating (publicly)", imo.
Remember when Putin offered to negotiate Iranian withdrawal from Syria in exchange for sanctions relief but Netanyahu didn't want to know?
Now Netanyahu is making calls to Putin about Syria: https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-putin-agree-to-boost-cooperation-in-syria-after-us-withdrawal/amp/
http://www.irna.ir/en/News/83157073
"Iran, France, US FMs to visit Baghdad
Baghdad, Jan 3, IRNA – Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Ali Hakim announced that the Iranian, French and US foreign ministers are to visit Baghdad in January.
Iran, France, US FMs to visit Baghdad
According to the Iraqi Al-Farat News Agency, Hakim has said that three foreign ministers and one president will visit Iraq in January.
He declined to name the country whose president is to travel to Baghdad.
Earlier, Iraqi sources had announced imminent visit of French President Emanuel Macron to Baghdad."
SPV discussions maybe?
Letting Americans run any part of their security would be impossible to accept, imo.
Trump in the Cabinet meeting today:
"Iran is a much different country today than when I took over."
"I'd love to negotiate with Iran, they're not ready yet, I don't think, but they will be."
He also mentioned that Iran is pulling people out of Syria and Yemen but also that Iran can "do what they want" in Syria(!) He was trying to make out that he had transformed them and, as if to emphasize the point, had a giant copy of that "Sanctions are coming" poster of himself on the table for the cameras!
The contradictions and ambivalence didn't didn't make much sense... unless you assume that negotiations are/have been taking place behind the scenes, imo. Presumably Iran have given guarantees about not threatening Israel from Syria any more, and withdrawing themselves. Why else would he not be fussed?
I think Trump is now just desperate for a public meeting with Rouhani and to get some trade deals done - probably including for Boeing if you look at who he's just appointed as Acting Defense Secretary! ;)
Lol, he's getting frantic, isn't he! Multi-ID fun too, imo – it's pretty obvious. IP checks...?
Apparently he's a 'family man' and yet he's managed to spend a large part of the festive period on here; morning, day and night. 17 posts this weekend – so far... Why? ;) I take it as a good sign that he's so desperate atm; replying within 4 minutes to havegun earlier - circling like a hawk! :) Obviously very interested in his trade here, that he told us he bought into some time back.
My favourite comment so far from him, though: “They (the bulls) were all wrong.” - LOL! Are you holding because you're a bear then, Foxy!? No wonder you made such a massive loss before if you exclusively invest in stocks you're bearish on! Btw, you keep referring to WSG as “We” - is that intentional or a lie? This all matters to me when I'm trying to gauge the honesty of a poster and, therefore, their credibility.
Also, which 'bulls' said that we'd convert before Christmas, or are you trying to put words in their/our/my mouth(s) about that? Pretty sure that I've been consistently saying that we'd at least wait and see the outcome of the SPV before committing to any other workarounds, for example. You do keep forgetting that, which is odd/bordering on the misleading...
Anyway, as ever these are rhetorical questions that I have no interest in your answer to. I'm just trying to highlight your ineptitude at trading/investing and/or attempts to mislead – it must be one or the other imo! :) Either way, you're definitely one to ignore and I shall do so from now on, along with your JoeSwanson, Keee, BigEars, Vander, CBB, etc. 'friends'/alter-egos/brothers :)
Ha! Those stories have named sources and are repeated elsewhere. Regarding the SPV, you said: "it’s been widely reported that it will be for humanitarian and food sales alone." Very definitive. When asked for sources you said "Reuters" but didn't post a link. Again yesterday you still didn't post a link.
Do you honestly not see the difference between me posting a story, along with links, and you making a claim without providing links? We can't even tell from what you've posted who told Reuters, for example.
People can make their minds up if links are provided. You decided against doing so - apparently because you couldn't "be ar$ed". However, you evidently could "be ar$sed" to Google it again, provide written instructions on how to find it, Google the definition of a word and copy and paste that for us. Hey ho! ;)
It also sounds like Turkey want to facilitate US-Iranian talks too:
https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/us-withdrawal-from-jcpoa-will-have-dangerous-515883.html
“The Turkish Foreign Minister also hoped that US President Donald Trump would reverse these decisions (leaving the JCPOA), IRNA reported quoting Turkey's Anadolu Agency.
"Voicing his hopes that problems are resolved through dialogue," Cavusoglu said, "Turkey will do its part in this."”
:)
Oh dear, looks like the multi-ID brigade had a meltdown today! ;)
Meanwhile, yet more concession from the US and Iranians cropping up as Turkey expect another oil sanctions waiver.
Further, Iran appear to be leaving Iraq: https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1520851/iran-says-its-%E2%80%98advisors%E2%80%99-have-departed-iraq
Further still, Iran are helping to create peace in Afghanistan - just as the US announce their withdrawal from the same country: https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/12/27/584088/Iran-Afghanistan-US-Pentagon-Taliban-Shamkhani
All since that 'secret meeting' in London between Iran and the US ;)
“At some point, things very positive could happen with Iran” - Trump
“Relief from our efforts will come only when we see tangible, demonstrated and sustained shifts in Tehran's policies” - Pompeo
GLA :)
Yes, Foxhill and JoeSwanson are the same multi-ID poster, who can't remember whether he holds or not, how many he holds, and is unable to explain why he persuaded family members and friends to buy WSG at the exact time that he was trashing them on this anonymous bulletin board. Was he misleading them or us? Or was it a lie?
He told us a while back that he'd bought back in a few to trade (said he'd sell on the next update). Out of all the shares out there he picks WSG again – despite non-stop negativity. Either he sold at a loss and is hanging around to troll, or he must be a fair bit down now. Bit weird to still hold if he can't see any light, though? Probably best to ignore him because he admitted losing loads previously – obviously not got an aptitude for investing and is the wrong side with his current trade :(
Oh, another possibility: Maybe he's misleading us again!? Maybe he is trying to persuade holders to sell, in order to force the price down so that he can buy (more) on the cheap? Maybe the small trades helping the price down are also part of that scheme!? ;)
Good to see Bigears back too – never managed to provide us with that proof about a wild statement when asked to. Just went silent instead :-/
CBB: Another trader who appears to have a self-admitted knack for losing money – another to ignore. His quote on 20th December: “They said last year they were going to stop reporting MOU's and progress, and only report contracts, so your going to get zero updates.” Four days later and we get an update about the 'other MoU' and the promise of another update in around 4 weeks time!
Multi-ID fun, anyone!?
Lol, whatever happened to your stated trading intentions of selling on the back of the next update!? Trade down, I take it, but you're still hanging around - for what? Out of all the companies you could have picked, you apparently couldn't resist WSG, despite all the negativity. OK ;)
A few weeks ago you weren't interested in geo-politics, now you're waiting for Donald. OK ;) The clues are out there on that front: US withdrawal from ME, Iran removal of missiles, US granting oil waivers, Iran freeing prisoners, US assuring that they don't want regime change, Iran aiming for peace in Yemen and Syria, US grant waivers for Arak reactor, Iran talking to EU diplomats all over the place, US help Swiss set up a payment channel on the quiet, secret US-Iranian meeting in Sweden, etc... :)
SPV due in a few days and a January update - could be an exciting start to the New Year... :)
Strange to think that bears would bother posting on Christmas Eve! Just helping us out, I guess ;)
Anyway, have a good Christmas! :)
https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/IDF-General-Iran-no-longer-has-missile-factories-in-Lebanon-575206
"IDF GENERAL: IRAN NO LONGER HAS MISSILE FACTORIES IN LEBANON
By JPOST.COM STAFF Share on facebook: IDF General: Iran no longer has missile factories in Lebanon
Brigadier General Ronen Manelis said on Sunday Iran no longer has missile factories in Lebanon.
In conversation with Kol BaRama radio Manelis said that "the sites to which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pointed to when he was speaking in the U.N. are no longer active." "
They Iranians also released an activist from prison yesterday:
https://www.rferl.org/a/lawyer-says-iranian-activist-khandan-released-support-hunger-strikes-ended/29672306.html
Two more US demands being addressed by Iran, coincidently alongside the US ME withdrawals and Iraqi oil sanctions waiver extension...
And yes, let the Africa airport guessing games begin! Draft contract before...
GLA :)
From what I've seen, I think that at some point the US will announce something akin to rejoining the JCPOA (or similar), as a result of their 'maximum pressure' campaign having worked wonders on Iran and achieving a more settled Middle East.... Oh, and several opportunities for US oil and gas companies in Iran! ;)
A lot of the content of that news piece seems to make sense and it's very promising, if true imo :)
Yes, a publicly announced extension for now. The US couldn't come out and say that they're completely lifting those sanctions at the moment, for the reasons stated in the piece. As I posted the other day, Pompeo said that “relief from our efforts will come only when we see tangible, demonstrated and sustained shifts in Tehran's policies” (12/12/18) - it's probably not quite time yet for full lifting of sanctions and/or visible engagement.
It's not just that oil waiver extension either. Another US concession has been the withdrawal from Syria, Afghanistan (which borders Iran) and they are working with the Swiss on the humanitarian trade channel. There's also things like this: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/430797/Iran-expects-EU-to-extend-Airbus-OFAC-license-to-deliver-purchased
Apparently, the Iranians had 7 conditions for negotiations back in August. In return, the Iranians said that they would help to end the Syrian and Yemeni crises and play a constructive role in Iraq and Afghanistan. A short time later, Mattis publicly said that the US was not attempting to bring about regime change (reassurances on this was one of the Iranian conditions). The original oil waivers were supposedly a result of Iran giving assurances about the Houthis being prepared to engage in peace talks.
It does seem like we've been seeing small steps and concessions from each side and it matches up with what that piece said.
The SPV will help Iran's negotiating position but I think it's also intended to be part of a wider EU effort to avoid being fully beholden to the US in the future – not just beneficial for/with Iran. It's rather a pivotal time for the US (and others!) at the moment because they're running out of new markets to 'exploit 'and sustain their 'growth'. The unpredictability of this US administration – in part as a result of the economic stuttering - must be worrying the EU. Countries that have made use of currencies other than the US dollar for their oil transactions have tended to be invaded in the past, so it's no wonder that the US are not keen on the SPV idea (might there be a link between France potentially hosting the SPV and somebody agitating those Yellow Vest protests?)! So I agree that it would be a very useful bargaining tool, but maybe the US would be better served by trying to work with the EU and Iran (like they are on the Swiss payment channel) on something less extreme? The US could even gradually green-light trade through a watered-down 'SPV' as rewards for 'good behaviour', thereby avoiding making “formal announcement, so as not to face Trump or Ruhani any internal troubles”. They could do this incrementally, as they see Iran continuing to do their bit and thereby keeping to what Pompeo said about seeing “sustained shifts”. Of course, it may not even end up being needed – who knows for sure!
http://www.aljarida.com/articles/1545411151849478100
"First News
US - Iranian meeting sparked consultations of Yemen Diplomats from the two countries held talks at a London hotel with European-Omani mediation
• Tehran granted Washington guarantees on Houthi concessions in return for sanctions
22-12-2018Wrote the story Tehran - Farzad Qasmi
After the success of the Yemeni consultations, which took place in Sweden, to achieve breakthroughs that were not expected, Al-Jarida learned from a senior European diplomatic source that these consultations were the result of secret contacts between the Iranians and the Americans through European mediators in which Oman played the role of the godfather. To several regional files.
The source revealed that these contacts took place in London, explaining that the American and Iranian diplomats traveled to normal passports to the British capital, and stayed in one hotel, and meetings were held in normal rooms, and in a very cautious manner; because the two sides are very impressed by the impact of the disclosure of the news of these contacts on their internal situations , On the one hand, the administration of President Donald Trump does not want to show that it is lenient with Tehran, while the government of President Hassan Rowhani fears the anger of the militants.
He explained that one of the results of these contacts was the consultations of Sweden, adding that Iran had provided guarantees on the participation of the Houthi rebels allied with them, and their willingness to make concessions, which then allowed the Secretary of Defense James Matisse to declare with confidence to the media that the Yemenis will enter into negotiations after a month, What actually happened.
He pointed out that the positive step on the part of Iran in the Yemeni file has had a positive effect on softening the American position towards Tehran and breaking the sanctions on it through the exemptions granted to a number of key countries that import oil from them. Therefore, the Europeans are pushing for Tehran to deal with society. In the same way as in resolving the Syrian crisis.
He said that European countries have made efforts to support the mission of UN envoy Martin Griffith, based on the fact that the solution to the crisis is long, but the success of the first step in Sweden will be a platform for the success of the next step, the meeting of the Yemeni parties in Kuwait.
He said that the Iranians demanded the lifting or suspension of economic sanctions in return for continued cooperation, and threatened to withdraw from contacts in the event that Washington did not extend the exemptions granted to some countries of sanctions.
The source pointed out that the European mediators convinced Washington and Tehran that there are 12 US demands and 8 Iranian demands to negotiate, and some can be implemented without formal announcement, so as not to face Trump or Ruhani any internal troubles"
Iranians d
...
I think that with the pressure on, Trump is turning even more back towards domestic issues. He's indicated himself that if he gets impeached that there 'will be riots' because 'the economy is doing so well' – except now it's not! So, he needs to create some 'wins', hence the recent flurry about the wall funding. I bet he also thought that withdrawing from Syria would appease some of his domestic fan base (another campaign promise to his core voters; veterans, etc.). He needs to address the economy and you'd think that resolving the various sanction issues (especially with China) will go some way to helping. Surely the Iran sanctions must be a headache too? We know the Iranians have been 'doing their bit' towards reforming after dialogue through the EU. Maybe the US withdrawal from Syria is part of an upcoming wider resolution?
Check out this: https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1075820490059640833
“@Charles_Lister · 16h16 hours ago Oh wow.
On Sept 13, #Russia proposed a phased U.S.-Russia deal to #Israel, stipulating:
1. U.S. freezes #Iran sanctions
2. #Russia commits to force #Iran from #Syria
3. U.S. leaves #Syria
4. U.S.-Russia dialogue on #Syria & #Iran begins”
We know that Iran are now more interested in engagement and peace in Syria, and the US have also just fulfilled part of the above bargain! Maybe Turkey are helping to broker a similar deal to that Russian proposal? Erdogan certainly has extra leverage with Trump, after all, with those Khashoggi tapes (yet to be made public), and a Trump-Putin dialogue may not exactly go down too well back home at the moment! Meanwhile, Netanyahu has his own domestic problems with corruption-bribery charges a very real possibility - another US ME ally potentially 'down'? Helping him evidently seems like less of a priority to Trump right now, which could be in Iran's favour...
Again, I wonder why Iran aren't screaming from the rooftops about a 'victory' against the US over their withdrawal – maybe there's more to come...
It's certainly an interesting time!
Iran has been vocal about the US meddling in the ME for a long time – particularly Syria and Yemen. Russia, Iran and Turkey have met several times regarding a peace committee for Syria. Then the following happened:
Friday 14th: Trump and Erdogan had a conversation about Syria and a US withdrawal: https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/trump-decided-to-leave-syria-after-call-with-erdogan-says-us-defence-official-1.804906
Tuesday 18th: Iran, Turkey and Russia meet again regarding the future of Syria:
https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/russia-iran-and-turkey-agree-on-syria-constitutional-body-call-for-talks-22580
and Zarif tweets that the West needs to facilitate the peace process, not undermine it: https://en.mehrnews.com/news/140659/West-needs-to-facilitate-resolving-Syrian-crisis-FM-Zarif
Wednesday 19th: Trump tweets his intention to withdraw US troops from Syria: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/19/politics/us-syria-withdrawal/index.html
Thursday 20th: Rouhani, Zarif and others meet Erdogan in Turkey. Syria is one of the topics, along with regional stability and trade ties: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/20/middleeast/turkey-iran-syria-talks-intl/index.html
The Iranian media has been surprisingly quiet about the withdrawal – I've not seen any rhetoric about having 'defeated' the Americans, as you might have expected. Why has Trump presented them with this apparent gift!?
Trump himself has now got a plummeting US stock market, the government shut-down issue, the Mueller issue, the incoming Democratic House (who want to start challenging him on Iran sanctions), and he's lost the effective support of MbS. Also, hardly anyone supports his Iran sanctions – A few of his (bought and paid-for) 'advisors' do, Netanyahu does and a handful of the pro-Israel Jews who financed him do. A growing majority of American Jews are actually becoming exasperated with the Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party and the ties between them and other right-wing, anti-Semitic tolerating parties around the world. I think that Trump's finding out that there's only so much supporting of Israel (and Saudi) he can do before he's actually undermining his own domestic support and position. I think that part of the 'problem' is that Iran were 'supposed' to have capitulated before November 5th.
He tweeted this, after pulling out of Syria: “Does the USA want to be the Policeman of the Middle East, getting NOTHING but spending precious lives and trillions of dollars protecting others who, in almost all cases, do not appreciate what we are doing? Do we want to be there forever?”
Netanyahu was apparently “very disappointed” by the decision to pull out and the above tweet must be seen as a dig – at least in part - against him. In fact, I can't see that Trump said anything at all in his Twitter announcements to try and placate Israel.
...