Member Info for EMMJANE

Perma bear deutsche of bt, just raised bt to hold from sell this morning pre open.

Could be positive on shares, especially as at low end of major support range around 137 level.

I bought £200k worth today on margin, feel lot priced in to downside already ahead of results and positives being ignored, including clothing demand for going out for all sorts of events. Food should continue to do well, as still people love conveniance and city centre workers getting back to work, to help mns conveniance.

the detector

there is ways of hedging the rebuying of shares if you are awaiting the cash flow to buy.

1. you can open an ig account and buy aviva as a spread bet in the equivalent notional cash you are to receive. Any gains are also tax free and the only capital you need is margin to cover profit and loss on the hedge.

2. Buy a call option through ig, which you hedge against any rises for a small premium and if price comes off you benefit by buying at a lower price.

3. sell a put option that if the price falls below the put you collect some extra premium, but have to take ownership of the shares at the strike price you sell.

4. If you have spare cash use that cash to buy now and fund with the future cash flow coming.

tbh 4.0330 was breakeven from friday close on the consolidation, so yesterday thre was plenty of opportunity to buy below friday close (consolidation price breakeven)

Apologies for earlier post of monday zero pnl aviva opening price should be 3.98 compared to friday close of 4.0820. The zero pnl opening share price on monday should be 4.0330 and not 3.98.

which if 3.98 carries a fwd dividend yield for 2022 payout of 7.9 per cent (31.5p) and 2023 payout of 8.25 per cent (33p) followed by guided single digit dividend growth, with any excess expected profits possibly returned via special dividends, according to amanda ceo last financial year guidance.

Great value inflation proof share imho.

I believe the zero pnl effect of owning shares at close on friday close price of 4.0810 is 3.98 on monday, when doing the maths of the cash redemption and the new ratio of shares owned.

Naturally the proof is in the pudding if amanda promises and guidance of future dividends are fulfilled. She/aviva though will be in a strong position to deliver on their guidance, as debt as been heavily paid down and they are in the business of pensions and annuities, which now with higher interest rates and better returns on government bonds is and will be very good for this business going forward, which acts as a diversifyer against their general insurance business.

Great share to own in this and the next couple years macro economic environment.

I guess if this share price settles around 400p after consolidation and they pay a 2022 dividend of 31.5 as per guidance in last results by ceo this a very nice 8.5 per cent yield, which has growth to it going forward. i.e 33p for 2023 and then low/high single digit growth thereafter. Seems in this stagflation market a very good value stock to hold value vs inflation with little growth.

Tate and lyle are good test case to the price action on certain dates, as they have / are doing exactly what aviva are doing now. But their share consolidation is 1 share for for every 7, with a cash redemption.

Basically first day they converted to new shares the shares were up 6 per cent ish (i.e aviva monday equiv). tate and lyle pay the cash element on monday (equiv to aviva day before 31st may ) and they up 2 per cent today. Will be interesting how tate and lyle then do monday and tuesday, as the cash hits ordinary shareholder accounts.

Also like the way aviva as structured using this system in returning cash to investors, rather than special dividend as saves on any income tax that special dividend carries, if outside an isa, sipp

Im going to buy 25 per cent more of my aviva holding today, so that when the shares get consolidated tonight with the b share redemption, i presume i will get refunded basically the extra 25 per cent i spend today on the b share redemption.

This way saves having to possibly pay a higher price when everyone gets paid out the £3.75bln in b shares at end of may and a mass scramble for reinvestment takes place.

also looking at future guided dividend payments, i can see many investors reinvesting for this lucrative yield. ?

I fancy bt at £2 by end of May

Not sure and would interesting how much bt value the bt sports on their intangible assets valuation. Hopefully they can realise more than that.

Big not bog :)

What is interesting this week is all the bog names that have reported this week this side of the pond and the other side of the pond.

Basically over 90 per cent of companies exceeding analysts results expectations but shares in usa specifically that are trading on 30 times plus p.e are getting sold off post results even after beating expectations, as they clearly fully priced for all good news.

Whereas in uk the lower P/E ratio companies that have just about exceeded expectations getting more rewarded and the long spell of brexit negativity on the value shares is really starting to reverse.

So key now is those results in May for bt and any slight beat that keeps bt valuation below say 12 times earnings, will give a decent relating higher to play some form of sensible catch-up to avge global telecom P/E ratios.

https://www.cityam.com/premier-league-set-for-tv-cash-boost-after-it-agrees-to-renew-4-7bn-contracts-with-sky-bt-and-amazon-on-same-terms/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Mange tout Rodney

I agree Larry but debt and assets has to be included if stripping the values down. Plus bt other units other than openreach all carry significant value

Aus

I’m not far off you a guess of £5bln for me just on back of steeper yield curve and general better global stock mkts and also general life expectancy coming down a bit.

Would of thought the all time highs in global markets good for bt pension deficit