Member Info for EMMJANE

With trump signing the new usd 890bln stimulus deal and good news with vaccine developmemt thereafter.

Uk market looks to open strong tomorrow. Futures pointing to up 60 points but think this maybe more for uk assets, as intl funds specifically will re rate towards uk equities over coming fortnight. As they are well undervalued to developed economies on a avge pe basis. Expect uk value specifically to do extremely well.

Think we close above 140 tomorrow

Happy Xmas all. Stay safe.

Mkt thin today but all the new news of brexit done, covid vaccine news will lead to a big flow of new money hitting uk equities in Jan imho as the big boys re balance their global portfolios.

I see a big up move in jan / feb for bt as it aligns itself to avge global P/E ratios for the telecoms sector, which being uk has held it back but no reason it being discounted in the global telecoms community anymore and funds will reprice accordingly

Behind the guess is uk mkt being priced the same as global mkt current avge P/E ratios of 20 times ( due to extraordinary low int rates) normal int rates avges global mkts to trade avge pes at 16 times.

Bt profit of gbp2.5bln at 20 times earnings equals £5 a share. But with the infrastructure spend they are investing to get 12 per cent return on investment of ofcom allow, will truly deliver at least £2.5bln a year in profit

I’m with you fleccy and I’m super impressed by the current management plan to release the long term benefits of this business. It’s also ok not to release dividends to investors if it allows the cash flow investments for 12 per cent returns on investment and not needing to borrow mone at high interest rates if debt gets too high and affects credit ratings.

Bt imho in the time frame you say of 2025 /2030 imho will be a £5 to £10 stock and receiving 30p pa dividend too. Which will combine into a fantastic return

Whilst I’m extremely bullish bt in medium term. I don’t see the brexit deal announced tonight whatever it is, will be the catalyst to send the share price up by much tomorrow. I do see a little value added to share price tomorrow but not too much.

I think jan to March is the absolute crucial period to really allow bt price to move a lot higher from current pricing as we need the jan results together with ofcom and pension findings of current discounting in share price to be released to allow everything ok And this business can move to a true value that represents its long term earnings growth and current P/E ratio

So although I’m bullish for a 140/150p year end rally I don’t see us pushing on to upwards of £2 till the above news is discounted from current share price

Aus - do you ever solve problems and take risk yourself ? Or do you need a nanny state to help you

Lloyd now up
6 per cent
Bt up 3 per cent
Builders up over 3 per cent etc.

Pound and uk domestic rallying hard now is a deal announcement out?

Don’t forget
Uk first to approve and receive vaccine
Uk at cutting edge of genomics to understand mutation
Uk has placed bets well in getting vaccine early and being fundamental to producing vaccine ie Oxford vaccine
Nhs has coped throughout the pandemic snd govt responds to Nhs needs

Hope you both are packing your bags to go, as decision made and you can do ntg about it apart from live somewhere else.

The London financial sector employs more people now than it did at brexit date. Where’s the exodus of well paid jobs lost?

Recent article in ft

Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.

Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.

Absolutely immigration actually helps keep wages low if uncontrolled and race to the bottom. If it’s controlled then that’s the best policy as you feel gaps that you truly have a labour shortage on. Give the youth a chance to earn a decent wage and let the British kids take all the opportunities that Britain offer. Which there is a lot. Just look at the city of London service sector.

The mkt has had 5 years to adapt to brexit, a deal or no deal will have some small movement but it will be quick and very short term as the mkt is hedged and prepared. There’s no black swan event from the decision now.

We’ve left the eu toff. Get over it, if it’s that bad for you, emigrate to the country of your choice. what’s the point ranting on about it. You can’t change it and many will counter argue that 27 country populations can use our country’s state benefits too.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/21/pm-plays-downprospect-imminent-brexit-deal-uk-eu-seen-moving/amp/

Apparently the after London hours rally (7pm) in pound (went from 1.3350 to 1.35 in 2 mins) was due to rumour brexit deal getting closer and mps being called to vote next Wednesday on the deal, which the pm as later tonight played down snd thus gbp/usd rate falling back a little since the after hours 1.35 being hit, but still up at 1.3440 higher than it was at London stock mkt close.

The gbp usd rate rate went from Friday close of 1.3526 to 1.32 this mng and has rallied hard in last hour or so to 1.35 with ftse futures up too.
Expect decent bounce straight back from bt in mkt Tom.

I’ve just added at 129.73. Think reasons for pullback in mkt a buying opportunity as the pain is short term but the medium/long term outlook hasn’t changed for me

The whole mkt move lower today is all the new covid restrictions over weekend ie travel stocks down most stay at home stock up little ie Ocado.

Global mks re pricing a bit of nervousness on new mutated strain.

There has been no impact on uk service sector in London since brexit vote. The reality has been growth in London and the financial sector has now had all the last 5 years to prepare.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/0c7c2597-4afd-4ade-bc19-02c3bbc53daf

As fleccy says the biggest impact on financial mkts going fwd is this awful coronavirus and the delivery of the vaccine as mkt is fwd looking

Bt stuck in very unchanged on day tight range.

Thought we could edge up to 140 plus today with the pound and general domestic mkt doing well.

It feels it won’t be long though till we attack that 150 level

Come January, bt will also be back on dividend hunting funds shopping lists for a good few months after, as bt will be within a year of resuming its dividend