Member Info for ElectricLion

The whole point of shares is to make money. That's the end goal, let's not beat about the bush. That can be achieved by growth or income. Since Kefi makes no money whatesoever, there is no income. Selling off part of the company's assets does not count as income, in the same way that selling your house doesn't, that's why there are different taxes (the government's gonna have it's cut one way or another!).

Regardless of what you and I think about the pros and cons, I doubt it'll actually happen until TK is producing and all debt cleared, so don't get too attached to the idea!

I would not be in favour of a dividend at this stage in a company's lifecycle, nor do I think it will actually happen. We don't make any money yet! Wait until we are before even considering a dividend. We could use that money for several value-enhancing activities that would still benefit shareholders.

Many investers like dividends, but I tend to think it's a terribly unimaginative use of funds. The company is literally saying "we can't think of anything to do with this money, so we may as well give it away". I'd rather they thought of something useful to do with it, so that the funds can be leveraged into future company and SP growth.

I agree with Surrey. Whether we are right or wrong remains to be seen, but I think there is a great deal of anchoring expectations to the current SP, or to the admittedly very long and hard road to get this far. But that's certainly not how JM will be approaching negotiations. He will want value from his investment. I think starting with the NPV and applying whatever discounts you see fit (plus a non-trivial amount of upside for exploration potential) ought, in theory, get you closer to the price JM would find acceptable than applying a relatively small multiple to the current SP.

Respectfully, I would also ask all to refrain from using language such as "delusional", except for the most extreme cases. The reality is that none of us have much idea. That's mostly due to the BoD giving us very little guidance on their expected outcome, which causes, IMV, a very broad range of quite reasonable estimates, whether you favour an SP-based valuation, or an NPV-based valuation, or any other combination in between. In the end, some predictions will end up closer to the end result than others, but that doesn't in any way discredit or devalue any genuine and reasonable prediction.

Goodness, what a lot of assumptions, based on... no hard evidence whatsoever. Sigh.

Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if those who had nothing useful to say simply... didn't say anything.

A more minor nuance - "maximum possible" dividends. ie. somewhere between none and all of that amount may be re-invested in the company, rather than actually distributed as dividends. What the company chooses to do with that cashflow is another matter. Still, it ought, in theory, be value-enhancing for shareholders, whatever happens.

In addition, a dividend yield in the double figures (ie 10% or more) is very rare. Therefore one would reasonably expect the SP (before accounting for any future dilution) to be 10 or more times the current price.

It seems like pie in the sky now of course - most here would be happy just to get their money back! But that's the nature of investing in this sort of company - it's all or nothing. Let's hope this turns out to be one of the success stories that everyone on AIM wishes they got in on before it 10-bagged...!

"Edison predicting 60p per share dividends"

Think you got your decimal point in the wrong place!

Scratch "or less"

Further to Qnard's post - "if you believe kefi are gonna get materially more than 15m dollars for the remainder then you are naive."

Quoting directly from the RNS:

"The dilution for KEFI's non-contribution in GMCO has been based on the historical cost of investment by the partners

Any sale of KEFI's remaining GMCO shareholding will be based on open market valuations which, the KEFI Director's believe is expected to be, following consultations with market analysts, at a significant premium to the read-through valuation of this transaction with ARTAR which was based on historical cost only. However, this is a potential future transaction and there can be no guarantee of the outcome."

Is it naive to take an RNS at face value? Perhaps, but is it more or less naive to take a random BB poster's views more seriously than an official RNS from the company? Certainly.

SB you predicted that Artar would take the assets, not that Kefi would voluntarily give them up. Big difference. So no, you didn't predict this. Fortunately, this turn of events means that you can now shut up about it.

Seems all you have left is the prospect of a raise. Yawn. So what. A company that doesn't make money occasionally has to find funds from elsewhere. More news at 10.

Your own bias is plain for all to see. Thanks for your concern (you know, even if you're right, don't expect anyone to listen to a word you say when your contempt for all us "plebs" shines through every word), but I'll go my own way, thanks all the same.

The SP is steady. Storm in a teacup, at least as far as the market is concerned.

I expect the market reaction to be somewhat mixed, as it is on this board. But Kefi has always been the junior partner in the JV and so not in control of the rate of spend. So you dilute the shares to keep the JV percentage, or dilute the JV percentage to keep the shares. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Not what some folks were after to be sure. But TK is the bird in the hand (or will be very very soon), and SA is/was the bird in the bush. Selling off jam tomorrow for a very useful cash injection now is fine by me.

NPV, dsrt, not SP. There's a difference.

SMH

I do wish folks would stop jumping to conclusions about whether large trades are buys or sells.

For one thing, the SP itself is far more significant - if there were a great deal more buys than sells, the SP would be going up, and vice versa. That's what really matters.

For another, the implication is that large trades automatically imply that those responsible either have insider information, or at least are smarter than the rest of us. But acting on insider info is illegal, with potential jail time if caught, and I recall one occasion on another board where someone, while doing dummy trades to check the price, accidentally sold their entire (fairly large) holding, only to buy it back a few minutes later! So they don't necessarily mean anything at all!

Given the number of large trades, along with the stability of the share price, my guess is actually some sort of transfer, with perhaps little net change in position.

Thanks cf.

Https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/presentations/kefi-investor-update-presentation-5nov24_0.pdf

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You're nuts if you wouldn't take 5p now. 3p would probably do me. Why? Because I could have it now, and not in a couple of years once production is fully underway. There's a lot of value in being able to redeploy that capital into something else, rather than have it sitting in Kefi for years to come. There's also always a risk factor, and the longer you wait, the higher the chances of something going wrong. A bird in the hand, etc. 5p is upwards of an 8 bagger from here. That's not to be taken lightly.

Https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-11-06/gold-price-sharply-down-trump-win-less-risk-aversion

Still North of $2600, for some perspective. CNR's NPVs are safe for a while yet!

"Are you saying that is what you have been doing all these years?"

Indeed. Without wishing to brag, I now earn approximately twice as much as I spend, so I have spare cash at the end of each month. It wasn't always so, so my average is weighted to the more recent SP than the distant past. Though we differ on much, even you reckon a 100% gain from here when it's sold, so a pound invested now returns (at least) two eventually. Hopefully that will be sooner rather than later, but even if not, I can wait. You'd have to wait a very long time to get 100% from a cash savings account!

"many have been here from £1.80 days!"

Again, be careful of making too many assumptions. Even if someone started at £1.80, doesn't mean they've done nothing since. And even if that was the case, their other financial affairs are a mystery. It bears repeating that most people don't tell the whole world about every transaction, and can you trust those that do?

WSBN was fun while it lasted, but it was always a gamble at best. Some shares you trade, others you invest. I came out ahead on that one I think, albeit not by much. A lot to be said for trailing stop losses. At some point you have to cut your losses.

"Got any views on decent tech shares?"

I work in tech and get a good bit of my renumeration in equity, so am already exposed to the US tech sector via my job. To manage risk, I generally don't invest much further in tech stocks. Personally, I think the sector looks toppy, but I've thought that for a while. People are starting to realise that AI is a solution looking for a problem. How much higher can Nvidia go, and how many others will fall when they do?

"peeps have had to bury more and more cash to get averages"

An important distinction to be made between averaging down (generally frowned upon as it implies increasing exposure to a failed investment) and pound-cost averaging, both in and out (generally considered a good thing, see https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what-is-dollar-cost-averaging). It may seem like semantics, but it's really not, as one is part of a pre-planned cool-headed strategy and one is not.

"(at higher than the offer price at the time)"

As I explained, this is probably not relevent.

"the share price would have fell considerably more than it did,has?"

Would it? Why? The RNS is pretty positive, at least it is for those with more than a 5-minute outlook, and so buying pressure from elsewhere could have soaked up a lot of the damage.