Member Info for ElectricLion

Thanks for letting us know.

I'm not a fan of warrants either, but think you've probably got it a bit backwards. The largest holders are likely to be the ones who will be wanting the warrants, as they're likely to be the ones funding the raise. Doubt MC is doing it out of generosity and indeed he may not have as much wiggle room as you imply. Depends on how over-subscribed the raise is - if the main contributer/s say, yes we'll give you $10m, but only on these terms and conditions, and there is no-one else willing to fund it, then what is MC supposed to do?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mali-security-mining/malis-gold-mines-produce-but-shares-fall-after-coup-idUKKCN25F0ZW?il=0

Everyone's got their own views of course, but personally I'm more comfortable investing in Central America than most of Africa.

I'm sure that MC/JM would sell... for the right price. But I have thought for some time that the value of this company in either a full production scenario, or a fully-explored scenario, let alone both, is sufficiently far above any recent market price to make it highly unlikely that any offer would be take full account of that potential. And once you've sold, that's it, if the district turns out to be twice as large as you thought it was, tough luck.

So (I figure) MC/JM aren't looking to sell, not because they never would out of principle but because there's a much bigger return to be had within a few years that an offer now simply wouldn't match. I think maybe the attitude is something like - "Lets get to £2 a share and then we'll talk"!

And hell, the hard miles have already been done throughout all those bear market years. May as well see it over the finish line now.

Doesn't really work like that Adonis. Directors cannot buy if they are already in possesion of price sensitive information. They also cannot buy in a closed period prior to interim or year-end financial results.

But we're not in a closed period, having just released interim results, so all this means is that JM is not in possesion of price sensitive info right now. If Calibre agreed to a toll deal tomorrow, and JM did not know that was going to happen today, then that's just lucky, but not against the rules in any way.

More here: https://shareinvestors.co.uk/2017/04/21/understanding-the-rules-and-intent-of-director-share-dealings/

1. Don't think this has been specified precisely. The construction period generally has been given in the past as 18-24 months, however I'm sure I recall hearing somewhere that 6 months of that was built-in allowances for delays (ie. a worst case scenario) and is also for the bigger plant. I would expect the smaller plant to be online quicker, hopefully within 12 months of construction start, but this is all speculation.

2. MC has said a few times that funding will be roughly 70% debt (bank loans and/or gold offtake agreements) and 30% equity. I imagine there are several scenarios with slightly different mixes of funding options, but around 30% is the best info we have right now.

On other news, gold is shooting up once more. I expected a longer and possibly a deeper correction there, but maybe that was it. $2500 by the end of the year according to JM.

To be frank, a lot of the information around landpurchases has been rather vague, which I have found frustrating. I do however have a lot of sympathy with the view that reporting every detail as and when it happens may strengthen the negotiating position of the landowners, and so I have resolved to just let MC get on with it. Back when we only had 50% of La India, and with possible local opposition to the mine, it was quite concerning, to me anyway. But the PR work on the ground and the land lawyers seem to be getting the job done, so it's just a matter of letting them do their jobs and we'll just have to wait a bit more before we get the RNS that says 100% of everything we need is now ours.

Care to explain what you mean by "skimming more off the to than he should"?

Seingred, you make very good points usually, however I have a problem with your company comparisons as you frequently refer to production ozs and not profit or P/E ratio. Since you raised it, I'll take TSG as an example. I'm not familiar with the company, so maybe you have more insight into the numbers, but this article indicates that TSG have a P/E ratio of 7 (which is itself usually considered to be pretty undervalued) https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-crash-d-invest-065902916.html

At a gold price of $1950/oz and 50k oz per year, CNR will be making $62.5m per year. Applying a P/E ratio of 7 and converting to GBP gets us to a £333m valuation. Can't say very accuratly what the number of shares wil be but we know that MC hates dilution as much as we do, that's why we'd be starting small in the first place. 160m shares would give a £2 valuation. That's at 50k oz production. Then we scale to 170k oz+...

ah, mb, that'll be one. Shoulda guessed...

"Same old pony which we all knew about"

Yes, Slim, you have correctly understood the entire point of this particular RNS. What I want to know is who ticks up your pithy one-liners...

We had new news yesterday, which although treated as something of an anticlimax by this board and the market in general never-the-less all but removes the land purchases as a cause for concern. Yes, I know 85% isn't 100%, but it's close enough, given that essentially all the major plant areas are already accounted for, that we can now move on and find something else to complain about!

That has always been my understanding, yes. The land purchases that we keep hearing about are for the La India site as far as I know, not the feeder pits, which as far as I know, we can start mining whenever we get a toll deal or our own processing equipment, whichever is the sooner.

Why? Because it'll cost ~$50 rather than $120+, that's why. I think they'll have someone check it out and make sure it's not a pile of rust before signing the contract!

It's really not very odd at all and frankly it seems to me there's an awful lot of fuss over virtually nothing at all. Look at the gold price! Combine that with a bit of disappointment at not waking up to a stonking RNS, and that puts us right back to... checks chart... where we were 8 or so trading days ago. Perspective please.

As far as I'm concerned, as AF says, nothing's really happened. Perhaps you could attribute a penny or two on the share price over the last couple of days to speculation around Calibre and Condor PR, which has now fallen away (though not yet conclusively proven to be false, as those event have not yet taken place). Storm in a teacup.

Gold price is also down, so a weak day for goldies in general. But again doesn't mean much as far as I'm concerned. If you think maybe this is the end of the gold bull run then maybe you'd be worried, but I don't, so I'm not.

No share price moves in a straight line. If you think it's good value at this price, buy, if not, sell. I don't get too upset over the daily market volatility, as I'm here until buyout or (full) production (unless some black swan pops up of course).

No they're not. The trade data from the stock market doesn't include whether it was a buy or a sell. Sites like this one attempt to estimate that depending on the price of the trade compared to the mid-point of the range betwen bid and ask at the time. It's not an exact science and they often get it wrong. I personally wish they wouldn't bother, it causes way more confusion and conspiracy theories than if they just published the plain data. Point is, don't take that info as gospel, but I very much doubt it's evidence of a conspiracy of any sort.

Previously:
NMC: 9,842,520
R. Martin: Nil
Total: 9,842,52

Now:
NMC: 5,000,000
R. Martin: 4,842,520
Total: 9,842,520

Looks like Randy Martin has transferred half of Nic-Mining's shares to himself personally. More tax efficient maybe?

Yes of course we all want to see big production numbers as soon as possible, but we don't want to see big dilution do we. It's not a forgone conclusion by any means. A bigger mine will probably also take longer to build. Could there be a way to complete a starter plant and start production as soon as humanly possible, while finishing expanding the full-size plant in parallel?

Financing terms must be looking better than ever with gold North of $2000/oz and increasingly-widely forecast to go higher and our SP picked up a bit from low twenties which was the case really not so very long ago. If the market is in a good mood, it might even forgive a bit of extra dilution if it means going bigger, sooner.

Either way, I reckon I trust MC to make the right call. He's got us this far.