Member Info for ElectricLion

What he was or was not supposed to be (according to whom?) is really neither here nor there. His actions speak for themselves. He had a fair run from 20p to 50 in fairness. One could argue that we wouldn't be at 50p now without the help of his funds, so swings and round-abouts.

As AF says, the question is do you think this actually means anything in the context of Condor's journey. I'm inclined to think not. Not sure I even buy the conspiracy theory angle, maybe I'm being simplisitic, but owning fewer shares gives you less leverage, not more as far as I can tell. Plus, his sells have not (so far) tanked the price unduely, so he can't even really threaten us with that. If he dumped a few more millions on the market it might make a mess, but only in the short term. The market for Condor and the junior gold market in general is strong enough now to handle it.

RM down a further 1.1M shares. Good that the market has absorbed all that without really dropping. I wonder if it's one big buyer keeping things even or if it's general market demand, which I would prefer TBH. Purely speculation, but it looks like he could be keeping the NMC shares and selling off all those he recently transferred to himself personally, which would suggest another 3.2M to go unfortunately. Highly irritating in the short-term, but the underlying stength of the SP is good to see. Getting the weak hands out and replacing them with new blood at higher prices is healthy in the end!

Yes, for some time I was afraid that there would be some who wouldn't sell at any price, either because they had a personal attachment to the land or that they opposed the mine development itself. But in the end it does seem to have come down to money, which as you say is a lot easier to deal with. I imagine there will be some more negotiation to get the price down as far as possible, but I doubt the company will want to drag some old lady through the courts at this stage to get a compulsary purchase, unless she really is asking for a totally unreasonable amount - takes too long and isn't great PR. Pay her off and lets move on IMO. Bigger fish to fry.

How long have you been here Alwaysone? You seem a bit impatient, or maybe jumpy would be a better description. lol! No offense meant. This has always been a long term hold, with the real rewards likely to be once production is underway (or maybe if a takeover materialises, but some of us have been waiting 10 years for that!). Yes there are milestones between here and there, and yes I'd expect decent rises as a result, but this isn't some here-today-gone-tomorrow casino game (which SS would appear to prefer). This is an investment, and investments take time to mature (unfortunately)! The rewards should be worth it in the end though. Good luck either way. More than one way to make money.

Another few big trades from Friday popped up. Anyone got any insight into these at all? Or even a theory? If they were all sells, they would surely have dragged the price down. If they were all buys, then we should be higher, right? So, what gives? A transfer of some kind? RM's shares going to JM?

250-300k oz of gold production in the country. Makes you realise how significant Condor's mine will be. We can increase national gold production by 50%, maybe more.

Pretty normal on a lot of AIM stocks I think, just have to get used to it and if you want to be able to get in and out quickly, scale the size of your investment according to the available liquidity. I'm not really an expert, but I very much doubt any broker or platform will be able to do much about it, if there simply isn't the volume on the other side of your trade, not much can be done, other than massively skewing the SP the wrong way (for you) to encourage others to take the other side of the trade. Pretty sure Warren Buffett has spoken about this problem in the past - he used to make 50% annual gains back when he was only dealing with many millions. Now he has many billions, that kind of return can't be done as he can't get into positions quickly and easily, or out of them again.

Good article, and tallies pretty closely with my own thoughts regarding valuation once in production. Wishing my life away waiting for it though!

"On that number of shares, the $38m net income I have speculated above that could result from a limited start scenario, would be 26c/share (21p) and highlight just how cheap the shares would be even at 100p let alone the present 50p. That would only be the initial rating seen by investors. They will have the prospect of production ramping up considerably after only a few years with little or no need for further share issues as the plant is upgraded and funded from cash flow, and as the additional 1Moz or so of underground resource is added."

The thing with issuing warrants is that it's one of those things that once started, it's hard to stop. If you let your kid have icecream after dinner every day for a week, you'll have a bigger fight trying to put a stop to it than you would have had if you'd never started. People like free stuff, but if they get free stuff every time, they come to expect it. My impression is that we first started issuing warrants to attract Canadian investors, perhaps RB himself, as I understand they are quite common over there. For my money, we'd have been better off if we'd never started issuing warrants in the first place, but the genie's out of the bottle now, and it will to tough to put him back again, and we're not in a strong enough position (yet) to make a stand over it.

I agree. Issuing equity in any form is never going to be popular, but the company doesn't run on fresh air.

If you accept the premise that we needed to raise the money, but think that a better arrangement was possible, then there are only a few explanations: MC delibaretly went for a worse deal than he could of got for some reason or he doesn't know what he's doing or he couldn't be bothered/didn't have the time to find a better deal. Barring conspiracy theories, I think we can rule out the first option.

His background in the financial sector makes the second unlikely and his own aversion to dilution makes the third seem improbable too. So the only likely explanation that remains is that it was the best deal that was available.

I don't like dilution or warrants either, as I've mentioned previously, but I think you're barking up the wrong tree by claiming that MC could or should have done better.

Fair points, and of course there's nothing wrong with being in both, but the thing with GGP is the MCap is now £560m vs CNR at £59m. The real question is, is it nine and a half times as good as CNR?

Several commodities companies on AIM have done well recently. Anyone holding EUA or GGP since the beginning of the year is going to be feeling pretty pleased with themselves. HZM (in which I have a small holding) looks to be right in the middle of a similar rise.

I don't want to make anyone feel bad if they weren't in these companies, but I think that it's a good thing that commodities companies on AIM are doing well. It means a feel-good factor in the sector and more cash in investers pockets looking for a new home once their existing investments top out.

Things are relatively quiet for Condor still. Despite the obvious value and PR efforts, we probably need a catalyst to attract the crowds. Toll-mining would probably do it, as would financing I think, to judge from HZMs rise. Good drill results seem to be rewarded these days as well, as can be seen in GGPs success. What about all of those things within a few months of each other?

If we can attract some of that hot money looking for the next big thing, then CNR might be being mentioned in the same sentence as EUA, GGP and HZM as one of the legendary multi-baggers that everyone wishes they were in at the beginning. And that could be well before any gold gets pulled out of the ground.

Sorry, would have to *increase* the placing price to compensate, not decrease.

You're pretty close to double speak yourself. On the one hand, "Mark Child may not have much say in issuing warrants", on the other he's "happy to issue warrants at feeble strike prices". If he has to do it, it makes little difference whether he's happy about it or not, and he may well not be, but you gotta do what you gotta do to survive.

FWIW, while I don't like warrants either, (mainly because they tend to be thrown in "free", adding to dilution but as far as I can tell not really reducing the placing price to compensate), I'm not convinced they drag on the SP too much, at least not for long.

Everyone has their own timescales of course, but I'm in it until sale or full production, and as Ben Graham says, in the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. I'll work itself out in the end.

Don't think they knew it would be this good. A lot of exploration has been done since we acquired the assets. Recently they have sold their Nicaragua mines, so it's possible that even back then they had half-an-eye on exiting the country altogether as part of a wider strategic move.

Indeed. He's bought 600,000 on the open market in the last month and a half, to add to all those ordinary shares, warrants and options he has already. And no indication he's finished either.

Keeping the SP up and sending a positive message may be handy side-effects, but I don't think that's the main reason he's buying, he just sees a big opportunity here, and has the means to put his money where his mouth is.

I think £2 a share is a target for a lot of people, it's a nice round number and near enough the all-time high, so a big psychological milestone.

JM is on record as saying he reckons gold will go to $2500 by the end of the year. He may be right, he may be wrong, but it shows where his head is.

I don't want to get too ahead of myself, or heaven forbid, get labelled a ramper, but if you run the numbers for the money that Condor could be making at $2500/oz or more once production is fully scaled up and assuming dilution is minimised, then, well, *multiples* of £2 a share are a distinct possibility.

There's always the chance of a black swan or two of course, so I wouldn't put your house on it, but life-changing sums can be made here if it all goes well and you're prepared to wait as long as it takes to reach full potential.

You're not likely to buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the absolute top, so don't beat yourself up about it. Buy when there's value and sell when there isn't. There's still plenty of value left in Condor.

The delayed trade at 12:13 was in the middle of a sequence of trades at 49.375 (indicating it was probably a buy) and the trades immediately following the 12:46 trade were at 50.75 (suggesting a tick up after a large buy). So I would tend to agree that they are buys. On the other hand, it was a fairly light trading day and and SP ended the day down, which would tend to indicate more sells than buys, so who knows. If it was JM, and I agree that's a strong possibility, then there'll be an RNS in a day or two...

If one was inclined to be positive, then the fact that's it's hit the bosses pay-checks make it much less likely that it'll happen again. On the other hand, no amount of docked bonuses will repair the damage. The government probably shouldn't have granted mining permits in the first place. Not for 75m measly quids worth of iron-ore.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53885695