Member Info for ElectricLion

We own 90-whatever percent of the land, including the area of the plant. So yes, I'm pretty sure we can build the mine on the land we own.

If there's a piece of the open pit we don't yet own, then chances are we can start mining elsewhere in the main pit (the whole hole won't be dug out overnight) or bring in ore from the feeder pits (which is probably how we'll start anyway to maximise grade and cashflow early on).

I think it could be 6 months after signing the contract before the plant is on site anyway, so probably a moot point. Even if the land deals aren't sorted by this calendar year, which is still to be seen, they will surely be done before the plant equipment is on site anyway.

MC seems to be trying to get as much done in parallel as possible to minimise time to production. Unless he sees the remaining land acqusistions being a serious threat to the entire project, there's no reason not to push forward with as many other things at the same time as possible. The fact that he seems to be doing the latter suggests to me that he doesn't see the land purchases as a serious obstacle.

yv00, don't think we really know yet. We're all guessing with old numbers from the PFS and off-hand comments from MC. The PFS was $120m for the big mill, but I think that was brand-new equipment and with a 10% contingency, and that was a few years ago now. pdp1000's post mentions $50m debt not $50m total expenditure. MC has said that we can get a finance package with 70% debt and the rest from other sources, equity presumably. So that makes a total of $71m, which is starting to get up there. It sounds like the mill can be somewhat modular, so we can start small and then add-on bits as we need them / have the cash.

The good news is that it sounds like negotiations on the mill purchase are quite advanced and MC has said he wants to put a deposit on the mill this year. Not so much of this year left, so not too long to wait. At that point, we should know a lot more about what we're going to get and what it will cost us.

I seem to be swimming against the tide here, but I'm actually getting more and more excited about the possibility of actually going the distance and getting into 120-170k oz production with minimal dilution and a massive district still to explore, while remaining 100% independant. Gold going North of $2000/oz would just be the icing on the cake.

Yes, I know it's taking a while, but seriously, do your own calculations on the profit CNR could be making and tell me what the problem is. I'm serious - tell me. Do you really think the remaining 7% of land will stop or even delay production? Do you think dilution will wipe out MCap gains? Do you think Nic will descend into civil war? Gold price crash? If not those things, then what? You're bored of waiting? Well fine, go chase rainbows somewhere else. No bad feelings and good luck.

Just because Condor is down today (along with the rest of the market mind you) is really no reason to feel any differently than before (and if you didn't feel happy with your investment before, then as I've said before, you really ought to sell up and try something different).

£1 a share takeover would be very disapointing at this point. Not because it's "only" 150% gain from here and not because many of us have spent 10 years here already, but because it really isn't much compared to the potential that can be achieved in just a couple of years from now. TBH, I rather think that an offer won't come anyway, but if it does, consider what you'd be leaving on the table if you go for a £1 a share offer or less. Opportunities like this don't come around that often, so when they do, better hold on with both hands.

The whole market's got whacked. Very little to do with Condor. Gold whacked too. Will it be a one day flash in the pan and everything back tomorrow? We've had at least one of those in the last month or two and TBH if you spent 48 hours away from the market/BB, you'd never have known anything happened. Or will it be a bigger/longer crash? Who knows. Nothing changed as far as CNR is concerned. Another 5-10% down tomorrow and I'm taking the sofa apart for my last few pennies to put in here. Brave or foolish? Only time will tell...

I have a small holding here, but part of what put me off increasing my holding further was the large holdings of some PIs. I've been in stocks where II's with decent holdings have sold, and it's not a wonderful time to be a small PI. PIs with large holdings can have the same effect on the SP, but are more likely to be fickle with their investments. Now, I belive wasa and dj when they say they still have large holdings and are just diversifying a bit, but these events do kind of support my inital wariness. Long term it makes no difference of course, but still, food for thought...

Yes, good point, I had forgotton that.

£2-£3 is very achievable once in production, just on a P/E basis, never mind the exploration upside, so if we were to sell up, the price would have the reflect that potential and our proximity (relatively speaking) to it.

In addition, I believe I read somewhere that the B2/Calibre deal took 6 months of due diligence and negotiations. A full takeover would also take some time to come to fruition. It's a big decision for both sides, so unless negotiations are already well underway (which is possible), then a buyer jumping in with both feet right now just to shave a couple months off of the land purchases seems unwise. As cambells alludes to, bigger companies tend to prefer to let the small-fry deal with all the risk, then pay a premium for the de-risked asset. It's more expensive, but also less risky for them. If takeover negotiations are underway, then they may well even come with conditions, such as complete the land purchases first, that kind of thing.

Given that CNR are already in advanced negotiations, I think any prospective buyer would wait until 100% of the land was purchased. It's just simpler, and may well in fact be quicker, given all the hassle of switching from one company to another (lawyers, paperwork, etc), which would probably cause delays all of it's own.

£1-£1.20 would not be accepted by MC/JM, so as you say, it would be a hostile approach, which I believe are relatively rare - most acquisitions are made with the BoD's blessing. MC/JM own nearly 20% between them, and if an approach was made, then they would contact investors explaining why they didn't think the offer was fair value. Given all that, it would be an up-hill struggle to get enough shareholder's votes.

I personally think that CNR will go into production. If a takeover does happen, I think it will be friendly (ie. at a price MC/JM would accept and then reccommend to shareholders).

Calibre had dilution of the order of 7 times the previous outstanding shares to finance the deal IIRC. Better to look at the SP rather than MCap. The SP has risen substantially, yes, but nothing like as much as the MCap appreciation would suggest.

They thought it was worth doing, and I wouldn't presume to contradict them, but I can also see why MC/JM and perhaps many on here would still have turned it down, even if it had been available to us.

I'm not a big fan of filtering posters, I'd rather hear it all, good or bad. But some simply have nothing worthwhile to say, so time to give it a go I think.

Are you going to make him? Please.

And thinking you can't sell or are locked in is frankly like holding a big red blinking sign above your head that reads "I'm a bad investor (but I blame others for my mistakes)". If you'd sold up a year ago, you could have invested in any one of the multi-baggers on AIM this year, but no, it's all MC's fault. Pillock.

tester, very good points, except that MC/JM wouldn't sell out for £100m, whatever the opinions of PIs on here, and Calibre knows it, or they would have tried already (IMHO). A hostile approach would be unlikely to gain the majority of shares, given the amount MC/JM own (I'm assuming MC and JM act as one in this regard, they seem pretty close). So it's a bit less of a no-brainer for them, given that they'd have to offer a fair value. That said, it's probably more up to what Rio want long-term and any number Condor might want is pretty small beer to Rio, so it just depends what their strategy is.

cf, there was a condition that consturction should start within 18 months of the permits being granted. We weren't going to hit that, so we applied for, and were granted, an extension. To when, I'm not certain, but if there is a new date, we wouldn't really want to miss that one too, unless there really was no alternative. However, while I am no lawyer, I would think that any such committment would be between Condor and the Nic government, so if Condor was taken over, that contract would probably not apply. I don't know if the permits would even still be valid, or if Calibre/Rio would have to re-apply for them, although that would be a formality in any case.

While I understand the frustration with time slipping by, I am somewhat suprised and dissapointed by the amount of complaining on here at the moment. I'll excuse mb and ss69, as frankly I have no time for either. Everyone else however, remember why you're invested in the first place and accept that which you cannot change. Sell up if you don't believe in the project or it's management (as anyone should do with any investment), but otherwise, you know by now what MC's MO is, it ain't gonna change, so make your peace with it or move on. It's not an easy job, and it won't be made any easier by entitled armchair hecklers doing their best to sabotage their own investment by constantly whinging on message boards.

So challenge himself and quit repeating yourself on here. Let us know the response.

Well said. I wonder how many on here have accomplished as much as MC, or work as hard...

Do you still care? I thought you'd sold up? Or are you looking to get in again at some point? (Genuine question btw)

It's only 10K shares, not 100K I'm afraid, but the trade at 09:49 is mine and it's a buy.

Not sure I follow WG, low liquidity works both ways, exaggerating SP movements when there are relatively few shares being traded either way? The SP is down because there are more sells than buys, yes, but the magnitude of the drop is due to the liquidity situation as far as I can tell.

Bit of negative sentiment, bit of boredom, but mostly just low liquidity. Bad on the way down, good on the way up.

No problem with people selling up if that's what they think best, but unfortunately munch you don't have a lot of credibility. These posts pretty much sum up your approach as far as I can tell:

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munchbox54
Posted in: OMI
Price: 15.775
02 Oct 2020 07:50

Market sell off
Today looks like a blood bath.
I’m not buying today. Too risky here

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munchbox54
Posted in: OMI
Price: 18.70
02 Oct 2020 08:25

Just bought 50k
Looks better value than others.
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LOL

Then reality sets in. "Actually, this thing is going to take four years to bring into production, even with all our modern mining methods. We've got to build a road, a mill, shafts, tunnels. How are we going to get power here? What about water? And permits. We're going to need permits. Lots of permits. And people. We're going to need lots of them too. Good ones."

Finally, an accountant speaks up: "It's going to cost X million pounds".

"X million pounds?"

"I'm afraid so. Possibly even Y million. And it's going to take a minimum of three years."

"Oh, no. How are going to keep impatient investors interested all that time?"

The answer is: "You're not."

Without exciting newsflow or cashflow, investors quickly lose interest and the stock sells off. But after several years working hard on the project, developing the asset, bringing in roads and power, building the infrastructure, getting the right people in, an analyst perks up. "Hey, you remember that project. It's not looking so bad after all. They'll be in production by next year." "Really?" Gradually, investor interest creeps back and the stock starts to perk up.

- https://moneyweek.com/2349/a-chance-to-buy-into-chinas-gold-mining-boom-dirt-cheap