Member Info for ElectricLion

The buy/sell indicators on trades are unreliable at best. Pretend they aren't there at all IMO. Yes, volume is usually a good sign. Get weak holders and exhausted longs out and replace with new blood looking for higher prices. No visible sign that RM is still selling though. There was a good theory on here a few days back that he was just selling an amount equivalent to the number of warrants he now holds, and as far as I can see, that fits the trade patterns too.

I try to remain objective yes, though I admit my frustration seeps out at times. You're a bit all over the place. What if the mine is nationalised? What if JM sells up? Why is the SP down? What if the land isn't bought? (Who said anything about the next 4-5 weeks?) Don't expect it to go straight to the moon. (Well, yeah, duh). What if taxes are increased? What if there are problems in production? Don't expect £5-6. (Not really a brave prediction to make - that it won't 10-12 bag from the then-50p SP).

And that's just from your last couple of posts. It's not very coherent.

Yes, there are risks. But that's why we're here in an AIM gold junior to begin with, right? Because we believe that the potential reward is worth the risk.

IIRC, the issue of nationalisation (if that is indeed what mb is on about) has been discussed on here on the last few months. The upshot was that they tried that in Nic in the 80s (?) - which might make you think that they'd try again - but it was a complete disaster. They didn't have the expertise or internal knowledge of the companies involved to make a decent go of it. Very unlikely they'ds give it a second go IMO, far too much to lose, as cambells points out. If they stuff up the gold mining industry, they really will be in trouble. It would also kill off any other investment in the country of course. Set them back decades.

If you think that's a realistic possibility mb, then you really ought to be selling up altogether TBH and IMHO. Staying in a share if you have concerns of that nature doesn't seem wise to me, BWTFDIK.

That's not what the market is worried about IMO. Covid-19 is. Plenty of other shares down, yesterday and today. Can't remeber how long the March crash was, but think it took a few weeks to stabilise. Now, as then, gold took a big whack too. Good for the gold price and us long term I think, but short-term some turbulance at best is inevitable.

Amazing how many get a bit antsy the second the SP drops a bit. And that goes for the wider market as well as here. Nothing's changed. Keep calm and carry on.

Not company specific. FTSE 100 down 3%. Coronavirus part 2 is causing jitters. Could be a tough winter. Maybe the early stages of stock market crash part 2? Who knows.

You talk a lot, but say little. There's some risks which affect the SP and investors should be aware of them? We know that.

A more interesting discussion would be if you think the risks are priced into the current SP. I personally think that they are, even the risk of political unrest to an extent, given it has happened relatively recently. £60M is not a lot for a company in our position, risks and all.

Risks can go down as well as up. 100% of land bought by the end of the year (personally, I'm not that bothered whether it's done by the 31st December or not, but it may well be) would be a good start. What else is required to be 'shovel-ready' in your view?

Yes, there's risk. That's why we're under £60M MCap. You want safe, buy GGP. They're at £900M MCap by the way. Pays your money, takes your chance. That about cover it?

No evidence that I can see. The 100K and 200K delayed trades, whether buys or sells, seem to have stopped for now. I think there's a good chance he may be done.

We've got 91% of the land, without needing to play hardball, yet. We're all impatiant, but let it play out. No point leaving a sour taste locally when we're nearly there anyway. There's always the compulsary sale option, if it comes to that, but I don't think it will.

HZM

Just thinking that myself Gavlaaa. GGP must now be near the top of the speculative exploration spike and Condor must be near the end of the orphan period. If they have a couple of down days, I can see a lot of the hot money jumping out looking for the next big thing...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3389945-crash-course-how-a-mine-is-made

Not worth your time elgordo. After a couple of attempts to engage with him, I eventually came to that conclusion myself. A sad case, but not my job to fix him.

Olderandwiser - agreed again! The market needs a catalyst to make people sit up and take notice. 100% land acquisition would be a nice start. Toll mining remains a possibility which would bring forward cashflow by a year or two, that would certainly make things interesting. Finance arranged, another one. And construction start, probably shortly after finance raised, as I imagine MC will want to wait to the last minute for the finance so we're not paying interest on debt we can't use. All of that by, fingers crossed, end of Q1 2021, and the market will have no choice but to pay attention.

Olderandwiser - yes agreed, but don't think that's a concern here. Our current resource can sustain a 170k oz mine for over 13 years, and there's like 10% of the district explored or something like that. I anticipate a 200k oz+ a year operation on at least a 5m oz district for a mine life of 25 years, give or take.

FWIW, thelearner, most, if not all, LTH would be very disapointed with £1. Depends on your timescales of course, but the maths says £2 is do-able with 50k oz production (Gold 2000 $/oz, P/E ratio 7, 165m shares). But we're not going to stop at 50k oz. We may not even start at 50k oz. There's already a clear plan to 170k oz production, and this district is only going to get bigger, with the resources to grow production even further than that. Using 170k oz and leaving other variables the same gives a £7 share price (!!!)

Which, for the time being, seems like fantasy, but run the numbers yourself, see what you get. Big unknowns are the number of shares (165m may be opimistic, but I'm hoping to keep it under 200m well all is said and done), and gold price (all indications are it could be significantly higher). No way our large shareholders will allow a takeover at less than £2 a share, given all the potential.

It's a bit bonkers isn't it. Unstoppable. Rather looks like they're going to be a billion pound company before we're £100M. Still, shows that there's an appetite for such companies, which is promising for us, once the news flow we're expecting over the next few months finally arrives.

The government shouldn't have granted the mining permits in the first place in my view. Bad call from Rio, but they had asked the government "can we mine here?" and the government said "yes", so plenty of blame to go around in my view.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54112991

An appealing theory frenchie, thanks. Fingers crossed.

MC can't work miracles WG and he has a lot on his plate as it is. Big investors are much like you and me, but with more shares. They'll each have their own agenda and probably wouldn't tell MC what it really is even if he asked. He doesn't appear to have virtually unlimited personal wealth to prop up the SP himself every time someone sells, and not sure what else you could reasonably expect him to do. He needs to focus on turning Condor into a high-margin producer. The SP will sort itself out in the end.

Another 400k shares in delayed trades from this morning. I'd guess they were buys from the price. If it's JM buying, then I'd expect another RNS pretty soon. If not him, but they're still buys, then who I wonder? If they are sells, then it's probably RM, so another 400k off of his total dealt with fairly painlessly in the grand scheme of things. Does feel like we're missing half the picture here. Maybe JM and RM fell out with each other.

I'll admit, looks like I sold out of GGP too early at 8.5p or thereabouts. Still, my theory then that the MCap seemed high is now more than doubly true! Now over 12x Condor's price. Despite the irritation of a big holder selling once again, I'm not planning on selling any shares here at this (hopefully) crucial stage of development, and if I did, I wouldn't be going back to GGP. Nothing against the co. or their assets, but they need to be pretty special to justify that MCap, let alone get further decent growth out of it. On the other hand, I thought that at 8.5p too, so I wouldn't blame you if you ignored me!