Member Info for ElectricLion

Don't think the timing of the RNS means anything. CNR will have put it out as soon as they reasonably could after being notfied. There are stock market rules about having to release market sensitive information promptly to reduce potential for insider trading.

Forget the percentages, yes they can be confusing if the total issued shares changes. However, the 8th June RNS states that NMC has 11,482,940 shares. Todays's RNS takes that total down to 10,017,208. So 1,465,732 have been sold.

Indeed. While buys are a fairly unambiguous vote of confidence, the motivation behind sells is often rather more difficult to discern. His reasons could well have nothing to do with the company. He may have a tax bill/wedding/divorce/car/house/yacht to pay for. He may have an eye on another investment/business opportunity. Or just taking some profits. If there are further RNSs, then it will be a little concerning, but if that's it, then the sells have been absorbed by the market (and JM of course), so not too much damage done.

Yes, those kinds of large delayed trades are often an indication that the big sells have come to an end. I think it's a pretty good sign that the SP has remained pretty stable despite the selling. If those big sells have actually finished then I wouldn't be suprised to see a return to the fifties in fairly short order. Fingers crossed...

I don't really want to get involved, but this has been done to death. Can I humbly suggest you both just drop it? Time to move on.

Calibre's MCap appreciation came at the cost of a fair bit of dilution. I'm not saying it wasn't worth it - they did get a lot in return, but their SP performance (which is surely the aspect we care about the most) while very respectable is nowhere near as impressive as their MCap performance.

Regardless of past performance, I would hope that CNR's SP has more room to run in the future than Calibre's does, and that's thanks in part to keeping a lid on dilution, despite trying market conditions over the last few years.

Let's not forget we have re-rated - from low twenties to high thirties. Just the start hopefully, but we shoudn't take it for granted. The juniors move most towards the latter stages of gold bulls, or so I'm told, and we're not there yet.

A cardboard box? You were lucky...

24 months has been on there for a little while. It's clearly just an estimate at this point, not a precise timeline. I belive in the past it has been stated as 18-24 months, with 6 months slack built in to allow for any delays.

Hopefully we will hear a more detailed timeline once the plant contract has been signed.

Employees get options, which they ought to get in sufficient quantities to motivate and reward. Warrants are a different beast, at least as far as I'm concerned. I think we only started issuing them along with ordinary shares in fundraises to attract Canadian investers (probably RB specifically), as I think they are fairly common in Canada.

I guess a placing like that must be more complicated, more expensive and take longer. That said, it would go a long way towards making existing smaller shareholders feel valued. (Also, why less the warrants? Why not same terms as the big boys? If you're gonna do it, do it properly! (Although I don't like warrants really, so would be happy to see them ditched altogether)).

Yes, you are aren't you.

Just reported at 38.93p. A 100K trade at just before 1pm was probably also a buy looking at the spread at the time. 40s tomorrow?

I'm inclined to think that as we get closer and closer to production, valuations based on resource size become less and less relevant. The company hasn't focused on increasing the resource for years now. Instead it has been ticking off all the boxes required for construction. I would expect any would-be buyer to offer a premium on a per oz basis due to all that extra work. Equally, I wouldn't expect MC et al to entertain any offer that didn't take account of the de-risking factors. Therefore comparisons with most other explorer takeovers become more difficult.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gold-wealth-analys/worlds-ultra-wealthy-go-for-gold-amid-stimulus-bonanza-idUKKBN23P253

Looking at the trades I would tend to agree with your conclusion, though I'll admit I'm clueless on technical matters! There have been a handful of large sells, which seem to have been absorbed by the market without too big a hit to the SP.

Impossible to know if those sells were the same holder, or if they're done, but that fact that the SP has held up suggests that most of the other trades are buys, so once the few large sells cease, we should be good to move up IMHO.

Good thing we have this wise ol' sage to help us poor muppets out. The sage who of course wants the price to go down to get his own buy-in price. I wonder whether his tune will change once he's bought?

Just a note regarding dilution. Typically far more attention is payed to the dilution than to the value the extra funds will unlock. In fairness this is justified for many AIM lifestyle companies which raise with no real purpose beyond keeping the lights on and continuing to pay staff wages. However I believe that CNR is different in this regard (just one of the reasons why I'm invested), and so I take issue with the wisdom that we were at 60p before dilution and so the equivalent after dilution is 50p (or thereabouts). The implication being that we were better off before the dilution.

However there's an obvious logical flaw there. We're not making money so the only way to raise cash is through dilution. If we didn't dilute, we'd run out of moeny! The SP wouldn't be at 60p if we were bankrupt!

As it is, we have 8 in 9 million GBP in the bank, which is what we get in return for the dilution. Yes, that should keep the lights on for a while, but it should also provide funds for land purchases and plant deposit, which enables the company to move forward. If CNR is ever to reach a multi-pound shareprice, it will have only have been possible because of the money it raised through issuing equity.

Which is not to say I cheer every time I'm diluted, particularly if the discount is steep and is not offered to all shareholders, but it is necessary if we are to get where we want to go.

I believe the London Stock Exchange does not publish buy or sell data. Whether that's a commercial or technical decision I don't know. Sites like this attempt to work out whether the trade was a buy or sell by comparing it to the middle of the ask/bid range, but this is not an exact science for various reasons, so some trades are mis-labelled. I don't know why they bother to be honest, seems to cause way more confusion and conspiracy theories than just giving the raw data. Regardless, the point is, don't rely on them.

Concrete production plan is the main target I think. That gives the market a real tangible timeline and projected production figures, which will be huge milestone, up there with the initial La India concession purchase all those years ago and the main environmental permit in 2018.

You'd think that the finance package would be announced more-or-less at the same time, which will give the market certainty on (more-or-less) final dilution numbers.

It would be nice if the land purchases could be 100% complete, though I'm not sure this is actually required until production starts from the La India open pit, as we have all the land for the plant and I believe the feeder pits as well.

If a toll deal is to happen at all, it will have to be announced soon, certainly before the end of 2020.

Jim Mellon is on record as saying he sees the gold price at $2500/oz before the year is out. That's a pretty bullish target, perhaps a little too optimistic, but who knows. If that happens, it will turn the whole junior gold miner makret into some kind of mania, and who knows what that will mean for us.