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Both! lol. Anything is possible, but I think we've seen the last of the 20s personally. We've stabilised at 40p for now and likely more good news to come over the next few months.

Placing price is usually some percentage under the VWAP over some period, so a rising share price over that period has the result of making the placing price look bad. I guess that's what happened here. Probably this was all arranged before the SP went to 60p.

I'm not a technical guy, but I think on large shares, indicies and commodities it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy - if enough people believe it, it becomes true. I used to keep an eye on https://goldtadise.com/ for my precious metals technical analysis commentary, but it's got a bit clogged with right-wing Coronavirus conspiracy theories recently which is a bit of a turn-off to me personally. I value Northstar's commentary the most, and he also posts on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Northst18363337

I'll admit that there have been times when I doubted whether this would ever pay off, but I stuck with it because of the potential upside. Key word: potential! At times that potential has seemed very far away, but now it seems much closer. With a following wind (aka gold price) and minimal dilution, then £2 is the bottom end of the range that I think is possible here, if one is willing to wait for all that potential to be realised.

Call me crazy, but perhaps the best place to talk about AVCT would be on the AVCT chat board?

I think you will be pleasantly suprised if you think production is two years away. I hope so anyway! Just a feeling that things are moving quicker than that - don't hold me to it though!

Isn't the issue with HUM and possibly SHG as well, the life of the mine they have left? All very well producing 120k oz a year, but if you'll run out in a year or two then you can't expect to be valued very high. Happy to be corrected, I haven't done a whole lot of research on those companies.

No such concern with CNR of course. Even at 200k oz a year, there's 6 years worth already permitted right now, and 5m oz will take 25 years to extract at 200k oz a year!

I think MC knows what he's doing! They will have run countless scenarios - different mill sizes and costs, second-hand or not, types of finance, dilution at different SPs, gold price, time until payback, toll mining scenarios and on and on. I think we can trust him to make the right call. He has way more data at his fingertips than we do.

My feeling is that no offer would be made public unless it had a good chance of going through. Any potential purchaser would do their homework and know that a low-ball offer would be unlikely to succeed, and would also give a massive boost to the SP - the last thing they would be wanting. The offer would be run past MC and the BoD first before they reccomended it publically to shareholders. A hostile takeover is possible, but with the shares that MC and JM control, along with well-informed LTHs, what price would be required to prise a majority of the shares from shareholders hands?

Exercised warrants RNS may be next.

After that, the real news will be the construction decision which will presumably go hand-in-hand with the financing package.

A small keep-the-lights-on fundraise may be necessary at some point - I haven't kept track of cash burn, but we all know that MC will keep this to the absolute minimum necessary so nothing to worry about.

I think the chances of a toll deal ebb away by the day, we could really have used it two years ago, but if Calibre were ever interested, which they've shown no public signs of being, they've just about run out of time for it to be valuable to us.

Takeover deal could appear at any time of course, but TBH I'm not expecting it. Again, we're so close to going all the way ourselves that it would have to be a good offer to be worthwhile entertaining.

Yes, that's my recollection too. It was good while it lasted, but it ended on a bit of a sour note IIRC.

Which one is the most undervalued? I attempted to answer a question like this on the GGP board a few days ago (now removed for some reason, though there was nothing controversial in it.)

The gist of the answer then was that one would have to be equally familiar with both companies to have a chance of answering that fairly. Otherwise a question like that rapidly devolves into a "my share's better than your share" ****-measuring contest (which is not a helpful attitude when investing). It's not a competition and if it was no-one can tell you who will win - there are just too many factors in involved. Even if they are precisely equally under-valued, they won't move at the same time.

More to the point, you don't actually have to choose. If you belive both are undervalued, then why not buy both?

Also, your logic is flawed, if you don't mind me saying so - "either Shanta are very undervalued or Condor is over valued" - it is possible for both to be undervalued! ;-)

I'm not familiar with Shanta, but your numbers suggest they're making around £76m a year, and so P/E ratio is 1.17, which is abnormally low. So if there's no more to the story than you have stated, then Shanta would seem to be very undervalued on a P/E basis to me, to say nothing of the further upsides you suggest. Perhaps the low value could be attributed in part to their location? I would deem parts of Africa to be more risky than Nicaragua.

Great posts. Thanks guys.

Like this from SP Angel: "Our fair value is currently 40% of the estimated NPV of the initial project in order to reflect the uncertainties of project execution. As progress is achieved, we expect the discount to the full NPV to reduce."

And tester, that's just phase 1 of production. There's a clear path to 150k oz+ a year after a couple of years...

Hear, hear. :-)

And one more thought (sorry, I'll shut up in a minute), perhaps a majority of Canadian traders *can* and do trade on the London markets, and combined with the low number of shares available in Canada, could be one of the reasons why Canadian volume is so low. Perhaps we have big Canadian holders here already - they're just buying on the London market. Bit of a chicken and egg situation, though more shares available in Canada would seem to make sense either way.

To extend that train of thought a little - if the Canadian SP is significantly higher than the London SP, it probably indicates that the ratio of demand vs. supply is higher in Canada. To balance things out, you would think that it would make sense to transfer some shares from the London market to Canada, but I have no idea how this would work in practice. Theoretically, there could be the potential for some arbitrage, for those who can trade on both the London and Canadian markets, but in practice I imagine that trading costs and high spread due to low liquidity would make that impossible.

A Canadian share is the same as a UK share - it's just listed on a different exchange. It still represents the same proportion of the company (some companies do have different share classes, Berkshire Hathaway for example, but most only have one). The difference in quoted price is almost certainly just down to liquidity (or lack of) and volume. When very few shares are traded, it is more difficult for MMs, or indeed anyone else, to quantify what the shares are worth. The spread will be large too, potentially leading to apparently large swings in the share price, which is really just down to the price of the most recent trade. Until there is much more volume on the Canadian market, I believe that the London price will be a more accurate reflection of the current share price.

Yes, thanks Geovanni - I haven't seen that before. Obviously everyone can read it for themselves, but these paragraphs are particularly compelling:

Condor trades on an EV/reserve multiple of £27.3 per ounce (oz) of gold (Au), compared to the average for its London listed gold peer group of £291.2/oz Au and an EV/resource multiple of £7.9/oz Au, compared to the peer group averageof £69.9/oz Au. Applying the peer group multiples, the company would have an EV of between £162.2mln and £196.6mln, or on a per-share basis £1.70 to £2.10 per share.

Condor’s share price appears to have been held back by investors' concerns regarding potential opposition to the mine from the local community. The concerns are linked to a resettlement proposal three years ago. The mine has subsequently been re-designed to avoid any resettlement and the community overwhelmingly voted for a new mine at a public hearing.

During our recent site visit ( view the video here), we engaged with the local artisanal miners and watched the interactions between the miners and Condor's technical and social staff, the relationship appeared cordial, and we saw no signs of local opposition. During the site visit, we were also able to observe the considerable resources the company has employed to engage with both the local community and local artisanal miners within the area.

Calibre have had two years to show an interest in a toll deal. MC may stil be interested but the rest of the BoD apparently are not. In any case, it's put up or shut up time for Calibre. In 3-6 months, they'll have missed that opportunity for good.

As far as a takeover goes, whether it's Calibre or Rio or a combination of the two, the situation hasn't really changed in years. The company has always been for sale... at the right price, whatever that may be. If no-one is willing to pay that price, we'll just keep moving forward, one step in front of the other, until that magic day when we're making money for ourselves.

Why wouldn't Mark want to run a mine? He's getting pretty damn close to doing exactly that. It's fair to say MC has had his detractors, on this board, and by all accounts amongst some of his peers as well, but look at where he has brought us to - the very brink of being a 100% independant gold producer. If it was me, I'd want to see it over the line. Wouldn't you?