Member Info for ElectricLion

MC is not a born-and-bred mining exec, like many in the industry - he's a finance guy. That's not a criticism, at all, just an observation. My impression of much of the rest of the industry is that it's a bit of a high school clique or old boys club, and MC is an outsider. He doesn't do things the "done" way.

But look at what he has done. Yes it has taken a while, but this company hasn't gone bust, it hasn't been diluted to hell (though of course some is inevitable), it has remained 100% independant and should be producing well inside 2 years. And it has all been done under some trying national and international conditions.

My only gripe really is that I wouldn't personally be giving toll-mining such a prominant place in his presentations and interviews. I know everyone's got their own take on this, but I would put the chance of a toll deal happening at under 40% and with that in mind, I'd be a bit more low-key about it personally. Plus, I don't even think it's that big a deal. Yes, if we can make a bit of money before proper production starts, great, but it won't make or break the company either way, so no need to put that much emphasis on it IMV. And who knows maybe Calibre would want us a bit more if we played a bit harder-to-get in any case!

Is that us? Looks like OTC trades, which I don't know much about except that they are done directly between two parties and not via an exchange. So not really representative of the market price. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-counter_(finance)

Our TSX symbol is COG: https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=COG&locale=en

I'm inclined to agree, at least with your first point. Calibre may well have offered 60-40 or worse profit split. Geovanni reckons they wouldn't do it at all as it would give CNR a leg up, but their would surely be terms that would be acceptable to them. That said, a deal doesn't happen unless both parties agree, and I frankly hope that MC wouldn't agree to anything worse than a 55-45 split. We'll make it in the end with or without the deal and we have $9m in the bank right now, so we're not desperate.

Timestamp on that part of the interview Geovanni?

Any country that did that would be a pariah state for decades. You'd kill any chance of any external investment in the country for the foreseeable future. If it didn't happen when there were protests and it didn't happen when there was a pandemic, it's not going to happen just because gold has gone up IMV.

Not targetting you specifically robbie, there's just been a theme recently and for whatever reason it's got up my nose slightly. Nothing personal. Unless someone tells you everything they hold (and are being honest) then you really have no idea what their situation is and to assume is a little presumptous and potentially condescending. Inevitably there'll be a few of course, but I don't think there's any more than average here, and likely to be lower than those boards with a number of self-confessed all-in posters, like GGP for example.

Not sure why some people seem to think everyone on here is only holding Condor? There's a lot of, dare I say, lecturing about the benefits of diversification, but there are probably more deserving places for spreading that message than CNR. I haven't seen anyone taking the other side of that argument here and no particular reason to suppose that most here are not already diversified according to their tastes in risk and assets.

Compare that to GGP, for example where there are plenty of posters saying up front they've got every penny in GGP and that's the way they like it. It's seen by some as a badge of honour and any opposing view jumped on as a personal slight. That's where you should be taking your message IMHO.

It's damp squib, not damp squid! lol (A squib is a small firework. If it's damp it doesn't work very well!)

You always sound so sure of yourself mb, but you're guessing, just like the rest of us. While I'll admit that a 10-bagger from here sounds like fantasy right now, the calculations that support that argument are there for anyone to do and $2000-$3000/oz gold makes a lot of things possible that were not before.

RB reckons we've got some time left in the bull market. In fact his advice is not to sell too soon. https://youtu.be/JC9fu2y5c3o?t=1387

What significance do you attribute to the acceleration clause attached to the warrants? They were always likely to get exercised at some point. Best to assume fully-diluted share numbers to avoid disappointment when options and/or warrants are taken up.

Original permit granted in summer 2018 had a condition that construction should start within 18 months of the permit, which would have been the first quarter this year. That what needed to be extended.

All of a sudden, JM's $2500/oz gold target by the end of the year doesn't seem so far away. Still 5 months to go!

I have wondered if they might be delibaretly holding back the financing deal for the plant until higher gold prices and hopefully higher share prices along with it. If you were really confident that prices would be higher in the not-too-distant future, then it makes sense to wait.

As we've discussed recently, CNR doesn't really follow the gold price. That said, I'd be disappointed if we didn't make it into the 50's this week. And any positive RNS will surely light the blue touch-paper and spike this the the 60s, maybe more.

POG has shot up over the last couple of weeks. I wouldn't be suprised to see a pullback at some point, although I would think that would be just a pause and simply set the stage for greater gains in the future.

As you should well know, CNR are focussing on building a mine, not adding ozs through exploration. If you are discounting everything other than exploration results (still far from clear in GGP's case, unless they've released their MRE yet and I've missed it), then you are missing pretty much the entire investment case here, which has been well laid out recently by tester amongst others.

"Just saying Condor are yet to prove anything".

Humm, OK, if you say so. Though you might want to check the RNSs tab, it isn't empty! ;-)

Sorry, maybe I misunderstood you, my apologies if so, but you're not comparing CNR's SP of 46p to GGP's at 14.3p are you? That tells you nothing. Comparing market capitalisation is more useful.

Also, FWIW, no need for anyone to be defensive IMO, it's not a competition. A number of people will be invested in both.

I rode GGP from 1.75p to 8.-something. That was the easy money part of the ride. It was a no-brainer at 1.75p but at it's current 14p+, it's not as obvious that it's a great deal. Yes, they have a lot going for them, but then they need to just to justify that valuation. A great company with a great asset can still be a bad investment at the wrong price.

It's still on my shortlist, and I may be back if there's a decent pullback, but at the moment, with what is actually known (as opposed to speculated), it's more than fairly priced IMHO. If they go up and I'm still out, cest la vie, but I'll be content with my decision.

The easy money part of the ride is still mostly ahead for CNR. £1 a share is really not very demanding for what we know right now, though it seems it'll take some additional RNSs to get there.

The calculation for how much profit they could be making is pretty straightforward, however it's impossible to say how much or how little the company may choose to pay out as dividends. The company is not compelled to pay out any dividends at all. However we can try to estimate total profit as an upper bound on the amount available for dividends if the company so chose. Even if the company does not pay any dividends, the money would be being re-invested in the company in some way and thereby hopefully increasing the value of the company for shareholders.

6 or 7 years is quite a long time, and a lot can happen in that time, however it seems highly likely that the company will be ramped up to full production, even if they initially start lower, and that they will have paid off any debt.

Gold at $2000/oz and costs at $700/oz AISC leaves $1300/oz profit. There's already a clear path to 170,000 oz of gold a year. In 6 or 7 years, that could be even higher, but let's stick with 170,000 for now. That gives $221m profit a year, or about £173m. Total number of shares in issue now is 117m, though I prefer to work with fully-diluted quantities (ie. including options and warrants), which is presently 145m. 50% more than that is 217.5m. So profit per share is just under $1 or just under 80p.

Hypothetically, if the company chose to pay out a bit over half of that as dividend, then you be looking at getting the total value of your investment now back as dividends, every year. Of course the SP would also be a lot higher too. Win-win! :-)

C'mon mb, I told you that a couple days ago (or you could have looked at the RNSs yourself). Both feeder pits permitted late April/early May. No worries on that score.

There is no other permit to come that I am aware of. Both feeder pits were permitted at the beginning of May.

https://www.resource-capital.ch/fileadmin/news/Condor_Gold_Plc/2020_EN/May_2020_SPAngel_Research_Condor_Initiation_May_2020.pdf

Well either way, in the end it doesn't look like it's worth the amount of words that have been written about it (myself included).

Perhaps JM's buys in the open market are worthy of more recognition, he's clearly greedy for CNR shares, any which way he can get them.

Thanks Andrew for that info. I'm too tired right now to make sense of it all, but it sounds like there's a rational explanation that doesn't involve NMC selling, so that's good to know. Thanks again.