Member Info for ElectricLion

Time to call it a day IMO. Let bygones be bygones. I find it off-putting when I visit a BB and the members are at war with one another. Makes it harder and less pleasant to find the decent info in between. I'd imagine other potential new investors might feel similarly.

I don't think you can claim to know his motivation any more than anyone else here. Even if that is true, he could hand over the reins to someone else in the company or a new hire. Despite everything he has done (and he has done plenty, don't get me wrong), the company is bigger than one man.

I think the view of Ross Beaty and Jim Mellon is that the gold price will continue to do well over the next few years, so I don't think they are worried about that.

WG, thanks. I hadn't considered that the taxes and royalties might be in the AISC. That would make a pretty handy uplift to my numbers for that alone. :-)

It's a bit more complicated than that unfortunately, more variables. Need to consider jurisdiction and effects of dilution, amongst other things. Also, we're still unclear regarding the size of plant, and hence production rate, that we're going to go for.

Here's what I do - guesstimate the annual production, I think it'll be at least 150k oz in due course, though we'll probably start at less than that. AISC is $700/oz, so at current gold price, profit is $1000/oz, so that gives $150m gross profit. Got to take tax and royalties off of that, leaving about $100m. Then consider what a plausible P/E ratio might be, I'm really not sure what that might be myself, so I'm quite conservative, let's say 5, giving a $500m MCap, or about £395m. Yet another unknown is the total number of shares at that point. Again, it's hard to say, so again I try to be conservative and say 200m, gives a final share price of £1.97. Given all my conservative (I think) guesswork, I consider this to be a base case, with upsides from greater production, higher gold price, higher P/E ratio or fewer shares. Hope that helps. (and please anyone correct me if any of the above seems miles out!)

I was prepared to give you the benefit of the doubt mb, as I do everyone I come across in life. But you're getting tiresome now. Your deramping efforts are a.) transparent and b.) pretty weak. The SP may fall or it may not, but whatever it does, it won't be because of anything you say, so you may as well not bother.

lol. My precise words were "Anything is possible, but I think we've seen the last of the 20s personally." I've been around long enough not to take much for granted! And in any case, I'm just some guy on the internet, best to make your own mind up! That said, I will also be scrabbling behind the sofa cushions for spare change if we do head back to the twenties!

Yes there's is still the mine build to fund and so another placing will be needed for that. Not exactly an original thought though is it? Anything else your research has turned up? Like maybe the sky is blue and water is wet? Strewth.

If you're invested here you should believe that the cash raised in placings will turn into something of greater value to the company long term. Yeah, I realise that we're just now getting the first few rainbow-chasers with the recent SP rise, but most of us here are still the long-term variety, and long-term that circa 8 million or whatever it is that has been raised recently through placings and warrants will help to turn Condor into a fully independant gold producer on an under-explored district with maybe just maybe a gold bull run just getting going. I believe that 8 million will add multiples of that value to Condor's share price in due course. If you don't, what are you doing here? If you do, why are you moaning about it?

Takes all sorts to make a market I guess but the time to get itchy feet was over the last few years IMO. Now is the time to DYOR and then sit tight. There's a sense of real momentum now, so while the market may ebb and flow as markets tend to do, there's no better time to be invested in CNR as far as I'm concerned.

Honestly not sure what your concern is O&W. The plant can be bought and constructed, so there'll be upwards of another 12 months before any of the rest of the land is actually required for starters. Time for more negotiations and if necessary to get legal processes rolling. The first ore to be processed may not even come from the La India open pit. MC will look to high-grade early production as much as possible, and that means feeder pit production may kick things off.

munch, you made yourself look rather silly the last time you were posting here with your exuberant and completely wrong predictions. Maybe think twice before doing so again?

O&W, there's a difference between "securing" and "purchasing". I think the root of your confusion lies there.

IIRC MC has said in recent interviews that around 75% of the land has been bought. Not in a presentation or RNS I grant you, but there are rules and regulation which mean he'd get into serious trouble if he started saying things like that which were not true.

He also says that all the land for the plant hus been bought. So what remains is presumably within the open pit, and picking up those last bits and bobs is unlikly to delay the project from moving forward.

book5 on ADVFN has suggested that could be a fair bit higher due to recent purchases. He apparently has local contacts. He has also highlighted legal avenues by which the company could force the sale of any hold-outs.

I'm not really sure where site prep ends and where construction begins. Presumably all the plant equipment must be on site before construction can be considered to have started?

As far as I'm aware, there is no concrete date for construction start or production start yet. So we're still speculating until the final production decision is made public. My guess is construction will start in Autumn with production within 12 months of construction start, but maybe a bit quicker.

http://www.condorgold.com/investors/share-info

Looks like Nic Milling, Ross Beaty and Oracle all participated in the placing.

So if I were making a spreadsheet to calculate production profit, I'd first take the annual production multiplied by the gold price for total sales and take 6% off that to get net sales. Then total costs would be annual production multiplied by the AISC. So take total costs away from net sales and finally take away 30% tax to get (a rough approximation of) net profit. Does that sound about right?

https://thedailygold.com/textbook-bullish-setups-in-gold-gold-stocks/

Agreed. To all those new to the share - the CEO Mark Child (MC) is not a fan of dilution as he's a major shareholder himself and his salary is not large compared to many in his position. The raise wasn't done just to keep the gravy train rolling and it won't have been larger than necessary - there's no doubt a real purpose behind it, that we will hopefully find out soon.

Glass half-empty view there Big J! The SP rose from forties to 60 in around a week - a pullback was pretty likely even without the placing. The SP right this second is quoted at 43.18 - 13% up on your 38p open. And up from 25.5p just a month ago - for an overall 69% (nice!) over the month, as of right now. Let's keep things in perspective shall we.

There's 15.7m units that we have no idea who they've gone to. Nearly 14% of the company. I, for one, would be very interested in knowing who's got them.

40p is the price right now, you mean. To say it's a cap is a big assumption, and unwarranted (no pun intended) in my view. We don't know who the other parties were (which is a bit strange in itself I think), but MC and JM are in it for the long haul. They're not going to be selling. Highly likely that RB maintained his percentage, if not increased it (although if that was the case, you'd think they'd say that - unless of course, it's got something to do with the material change report to be filed in Canada. Just think how the market would react if it turned out that RB (or Rio?!!) took the rest of the shares...)