Member Info for elcobbledore

That’s why I do think once resource upgrade happens, it makes more commercial sense for Hainan to offer a buy out at the bottom of the pricing cycle. If they wait, they run the risk of another bull run happening (personally I don’t think it will rise much above $1.5kpt for a few years though).

No probs, yeah found it highly informative and good to hear there is strong demand for lithium for energy storage in conjunction with EVs.

Last couple mins interesting re forecasts. Forecasting hitting the bottom now and then price rises, hitting $15-20k pt for carbonate. I think it’s around $7.5k so reasonable recovery expected. I would imagine spod would follow a similar route so as I’ve said previously the current lithium spod price just can’t continue long term. Companies can soak up losses but non sustainable to do this continually. Realistically needs to be $1kpt for most companies to make a profit, and at that level we’re making a decent chunk.

It was 2.7p this time last year so with the GV sale and updated IR (Napster) valuations I’m expecting it to be in the mid 3s. We will see shortly.

Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t2w2NBGpu8Q&t=65s

Looks to be opening of a fresh water supply in Bougouni.

Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj8elay0t5A

Here is the video re government in Bougouni. Haven’t watched the full video but good to see senior officials there..

Most miners will be losing money selling at this price so it’s simply not sustainable. The market just has to rebalance. If miners are selling at this price some will go out of business.

I do agree giancotti, ultimately the share options for the directors are there so they should do everything they can to get to those levels (I think it was 2.6/4p from memory). If they get to those levels then it’s in their own interest to pay decent dividends as they get richly rewarded too. Patience I’m hoping pays off here.

Also I actually see by Mali taking a large chunk of the project makes it more viable for a buyout. Reason being if Mali had say 10 per cent, hainan may be ok with that, but seeing as they take 35 per cent, Hainan I’m sure will absolutely want the full remaining 65 per cent. They are backed by fosun who have deep pockets. We will see.

Yep agree Lav, think it will be in Hainan’s mind to consider a buyout. For me I think this will become more real once the resource upgrade comes (eg 50 mt which is approx 60 per cent more than current resource). Ultimately, most important thing for Hainan is peace of mind in having great quality product at huge volumes to supply their plant, for many years. As you say if they can offer a great buyout price now when prices are low, it makes sense. We will see but I don’t foresee any buyout until resource upgrade (due by end of the year).

Apparently some miners have been selling above spot prices too in Australia. But no one is making a load of profit at these prices. They should go up from here certainly over the medium to long term.

Possibly, or look to agree a minimum price, eg $750 or $800 pt to ensure that every shipment is making a profit.

Yep final results RNS was 27th June 2024 so expecting a similar timeline with updated nav per share. Hopefully further realisations at some point too, and be good to know what the board will do with the £2.6m GV money after paying the loans. May re invest or pay a special we will see.

So basically means producing at break even. However Bernie did mention a cost saving on transport before so maybe a little profit. Lots of miners make a loss selling at these prices so it’s simply not sustainable at these levels. Patience is key, long term is has to be around the $1kpt mark to be viable for most miners.

I’ve got $645 too

https://www.metal.com/Lithium/201906260003

And also I say it and say it again 99.9 per cent of junior miners never get this far. So v well done team kod!

Well said, as a lth like many others here I’m disappointed with the current SP. But it is out of our control, I never expected spod to be at this level. I probably should have top sliced in the 0.8s but hindsight is a wonderful thing…I do think the SP will rise once full production is announced and we have the export permit. I am excited about the resource upgrade, I do believe we can get to 50mt (think we’re on 31 mt at the mo). Lithium continues to be in strong demand and energy storage uses will ramp up. I’d be v surprised if it’s anywhere near 0.3 by the end of the year. Gold assets aren’t priced in either. Patience is so key for aim, I’ve learnt this the hard way.

What I would say is MF has a number of other AI investments too, so whilst Napster is the big one, diversification is a great thing to have and at under £5m market cap, potential for a big uplift in time.

So based on $15 Bn IR valuation (before recent news) worth £13m to MF. Lots of valuations are finger in the air especially in tech. So until MF cashes in the shares and realises the £ it’s impossible to say how much it’s actually worth.

Could it be because they’ve renamed as Napster though perhaps?