Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Given the prior conduct of the GoR over multiple years, I believe (it's only an opinion though) that they view Panthera as an annoyance to be ignored. I really think that they will only pay attention when they are summoned to court.
That being said, an imminent, amicable settlement wouldn't be a bad option to allow the Indian/mining side to de-risk and for all parties to move on.
Thanks Gall.
I appreciate that the arbitration process (assuming no settlement) will take a long time, but hope that the arbitration figure and the start of the process will act as catalysts in the immediate term.
It will be good to hear from Mark how he envisages Panthera spending the interim time on its other prospects.
The last corporate presentation was issued in May 2022, with timelines to the end of 2022.
We are obviously further down the line with all projects/prospects, but no overall picture or timeline for progression in 2024.
Obviously, Bhukia is largely out of Panthera's hands, but I would like to know when Mark will be issuing an updated corporate presentation and case for investors.
"In accordance with the Treaty, the parties must attempt to reach an amicable settlement and efforts are ongoing to determine if any potential exists for such a settlement of the dispute. If the efforts at settlement prove ineffective, IGPL will promptly deliver a notice of arbitration to the Government of India."
My working assumption is that if the auction goes ahead, this effectively shuts down any 'amicable settlement' opportunities with the local gov't. This leads to 3 scenarios off the top of my head (there are probably more):
1. Auction delayed (and we should receive an update from PAT in this case, as clearly there will have been a reason for the delay...)
2. RNS released before auction goes ahead with details of some form of settlement for PAT
3. Auction goes ahead and RNS released stating the Notice of Arbitration has been issued
In all of the above instances, the potential for PAT is transformational.
DYOR, usual caveats, etc.
Auction scheduled for early May (around the 5th). Working assumption is that if it goes ahead, this effectively shuts down any 'amicable resolution' opportunities with the local gov't, and the Notice of Arbitration will be issued by PAT (via LCM) shortly afterwards. Arbitration value could be informed by the auction, but plenty of rough estimates knocking around on this board.
In other news, the share trades are a nice shade of blue this morning...
Pretty relaxed about today's RNS - it was delivered on schedule when expected, with a resource update at Bhukia and confirmation that the threshold for submitting the notice of arbitration hasn't been met. There's a pretty large elephant in the room regarding why the notice of arbitration hasn't been issued, but given it can only be issued in the absence of meaningful correspondence from the other party, either PAT has received engagement from GoR or they are waiting for the auction to happen.
I suspect the latter, as it would be reasonable to submit the notice of arbitration as soon as Bhukia goes to auction, as that effectively closes down any opportunity for amicable resolution.
At this stage, I see 3 potential next steps:
1. GoR proceeds with auction on 2 May and NoA issued by PAT.
2. RNS issued at some point between now and 2 May with settlement, and auction proceeds without dispute hanging over it on 2 May.
3. GoR delays Bhukia auction to date TBC pending outcome of settlement negotiations with PAT
Personally, I think it's going to be 1 or 2 (and a coin toss as to which), but there is no likely scenario where PAT is rebuffed and no NoA is issued IMHO.
Also, given that LCM are in the driving seat for the NoA, it's unfair to criticise PAT for inaction this quarter. They are playing it by the book.
Bottom line - it's a big month ahead.