Member Info for EG777

Santos1 - I'm guessing you live in London if you're paying £7 a pint?

£1.49 for a pint of real ale in spoons round here (or £1.10 if you can stomach Worthies). Average price in most pubs about £4.

I thought I was being shafted paying about £5.50 a pint when I was up in York recently. £7 is ridiculous lol.

Biscuit496 - The 2 warning signs are:

*"Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 96.8% per year for the next 3 years" - that's pretty obvious because they aren't going to be producing any significant revenue until first oil (est. 3 years away), and have had some one-off payments this year due to the arbitration insurance payments which they are not going to be receiving again over the next 3 years.

*"Makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($0)" - again pretty obvious because RKH is not currently receiving any income from Sea Lion.

These articles are AI generated without any context or understanding of the nature of the company. Rockhopper is not currently a company which is generating any significant revenue (putting aside the one-off insurance/arbitration payments).

They have a share of a significant asset, and anyone invested is invested on the basis that they will generate revenue in future years to come from this asset (i.e Sea Lion and the surrounding acreage).

Apologies the bracketed section at the end of my first paragraph should have read (considering FID would have just been announced, is likely to be significantly higher than 53p.)

Nikb - basically if/when FID gets announced, "existing shareholders" will get the rights to buy a set amount shares for 53p, regardless of what the share price is at the time of the open offer. (would have just been announced, is likely to be significantly higher than 53p.)

The "record date" being referred to is the date you need to have been holding the shares from to qualify for the open offer. (Similar to how an ex-dividend date is the date you need to be holding from to qualify for a dividend). As mentioned in my previous post, on the last Open Offer in 2022 the record date was only 5 days prior to the Open Offer announcement so you do not necessarily need to be a long term holder to participate. But if you sell before the record date, you won't be able to participate.

There hasn't been a formal announcement of how many 53p shares each private investors will be entitled to. Although a few people have tried working it out on the forum based on the info we currently have, I think the theory was something like 1 OO share for every 48 shares held but don't quote me on that. It's certainly not going to be as generous as the 1 OO unit per 8 shares we saw in 2022.

Basically once (if) FID is announced, keep your eye out for another RNS detailing the Open Offer and it should have all the official details there.

For context, the last open offer announced on June 20th 2022 had a record date of June 15th 2022.

So if that’s anything to go by, you don’t get any extra credit for being a long term holder, as unfair as that might seem.

If anyone believed FID was priced in now, and genuinely held shares. It would be an absolute no-brainer to sell them right now. If FID is “fully priced in”, only 2 possible outcomes could happen from here.

1) Rockhopper announce FID is going ahead, the share price doesn’t rise because ‘FID is priced in’, you can then still buy in at today’s price without any risk of FID falling through.

2) Rockhopper announce FID isn’t going ahead, the share price falls and you’ve dodged a bullet by selling.

If you truly believe FID will have no impact on the share price, it would make absolutely no sense to hold onto shares for time time being.

But let’s be honest, you don’t believe that, and you don’t hold any shares. All IMHO DYOR 😉

Happy - if your definition of a mongrel share is one that has returned 300% in 1 year, and over 1200% in 5 years. I'd love to know what you consider a good one!

Happy just over a week ago you posted

"Wish I had sold this mongrel share at 85p"

Seen as we were pretty much there today, why didn't you sell the shares you supposedly own so you can put your mind to rest?

OGHero - "Dummy trades" are not actually trades, so these wouldn't show on the order book. It's basically just going through the process of making a trade to see what price would get offered at that particular volume (or if they will quote at all), and then cancelling the trade rather than proceeding with it.

Caledonia - by placing a dummy sell. I.e attempting to sell X amount of shares to see if they are willing quote you, and if so, what price they offer. This gives an indication of what sort of demand there is from the market makers for shares. I've found that normally trying to sell anything higher than 500k through HL gets a "No Quote Available" message on most days.

With regards to the 78.8p, I don't think this means they have a buyer with a limit order at 78.8p. It's normal for brokers to offer a price that is lower than the bid depending on how many shares you want to sell (the more you want to sell, the lower the price they offer you). Conversely, the more shares you attempt to buy at once, the higher a premium you will have to pay in comparison to the ask.

This is why it baffles me how we have seen in the past trades of a few £m value (and even £18m the other day) which barely moved the share price. Because whenever I've bought or sold amounts which are fairly large trades - but significantly less value than those trades - it has had a noticeable impact on the share price.

Although I'd imagine these large trades are among institutions, and I'm sure one of the posters who are in the institutional investment industry would have better insight into the reasoning behind that. I am just a mere private investor so my knowledge is limited.

HL will buy 1m shares this morning - albeit at significant discount (78.8p). But it's the first time I've seen them quoting on that much in a long while.

I wouldn't say 500k shares traded in opening 30 mins is low. It's not insane volume but certainly well above average.

Can also get them direct from RKH here:

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/investors/announcements/sign-up-for-email-announcements/

Sam Moody at the AGM is always very careful to caveat that they cannot guarantee anything, out line all the principal risks. He did say at the AGM he feels it's the closest we've been to getting the project over the line, he did not at the AGM say that FID "will" occur.

The last e-mail I had from Sam quite recently simply said "Nothing has really changed Navitas still targeting FID by end of the year " (this was mid November).

In terms of Rockhoppers official press releases:

29th Sept 2025 – Half Year Reports

“· Operator continues to target FID by year end 2025”

22 August 2025 – Publication of Circular & Notice of GM

“The Open Offer is expected to be formally launched as soon as practicable following FID, which is currently expected to occur by the end of 2025.”

The language hasn't changed, they always have to use terms like "expected" or "targeted", because if they were to say anything with certainty before the formal agreements were in place, they'd be screwed in the event of a black swan event.

The fact they are still using words like expected & target when we only have 30 days left of the year is an encouraging sign for me, rather than a worrying one. If they saw any potential for delay surely they would have communicated this by now.

Ovets - can you link me to a source directly from Rockhopper and/or Navitas where they have said that FID WILL be announced by year end?

"I'm as invested as anyone here, but my gut senses some new words creeping into various statements which seem to indicate some caution, such as FID in 2025 is our 'intention', FID in 2025 is still 'targeted', and FID is just around the corner, which to me isn't quite the same as FID 'WILL' be in late 2025, especially as there isn't much of 2025 remaining."

If they announced a statement saying "FID WILL occur in late 2025" than this would be tantamount to actually announcing FID. If for whatever reason it didn't occur they'd be liable to all sorts of legal action for misleading investors.

They are always going to use language like this until the deal is signed in black and white. To me the language seems overwhelmingly positive.

"When there is a certainty that after the election someone is going to make everyone in the country vastly wealthy - at no cost of cash or effort by any of them - then even Corbyn would sound positive and give a straight answer."

Mirasol - if we were taking about normal humans rather than politicians that would be a valid statement. But in this country we have seen time and again politicians being asked questions about things which are blatantly obvious to the general population, and refusing to answer them because they are afraid of who they might offend.

Or even worse, doing the exact opposite of what is obvious to the general population - e.g "lets end all North Sea Oil licenses and all the accompanying jobs and tax revenue that come with them so that we can look virtuous. Whilst simultaneously importing and burning oil from countries with appalling human rights records."

I've only just realised there are videos for each individual candidate. When I first saw the link I just watched the main video on the home page.

For anyone a bit slow like myself, if you click on each candidate, it takes you to a page with a video interview. As LTT pointed out the first question for all of them is regarding oil.

They're only short soundbites so well worth watching each one as this is actually one of the most positive piece of info I've seen in a while. Not only are they in favour, but most are overwhelmingly positive using phrases like "We need it", "it has to happen" etc.

I'm not saying they are all the brightest but wouldn't it be great if we could have politicians who could give a straight forward answer to a question!

Thanks again for sharing this Samula.

Thanks Samula.

Some characters in that line-up lol.

Glad to hear all of them have common sense. Or as it's called in the UK Parliament non-existent sense.

Pauldrayton - fingers crossed!

I think a Sunday announcement by Navitas would make sense. Would mean they wouldn't have to try and coordinate timezones and announcements and Rockhopper would have ample time to prepare an RNS outside of trading hours.