Member Info for edgar222

Sorry if this is repetitive. But as we move into squeaky bum time it occurs to me that there are really 2 (or 3) inflection events.

The first is the 25 year licence. I think the current licence has lapsed? If not lapsed it has nearly expired. Any institution looking at Aminex is not pricing in even the 2Tcf already booked. Because without a licence Ara and Aminex own nothing. (We all know the licence is not a problem and is imminent I am only describing the professional investors' mindset). So the granting of that licence is to remove the last regulatory risk and is to allow value to be given to the gas already discovered.

Also in the first inflection point for me is the seismic. As we know 2-8Tcf is the current declared range. I would not be surprised if it is more but that is hope not evidence. I have long thought that canny Ara are playing a canny game and I suspect the seismic will not be announced until the licence is granted. Why would they announce it is bigger than believed and incentivise the Govt to stick the arm in more?

Then there is the drill and the start of production.

Of course these are 4 events not 2 (or 3) but in terms of declared timescales I think they will be grouped together.

Which gives a very nice path to share re-rates. Who would sell on licence/seismic when drill/production are round the corner.

I wont declare a target price now. We will know much more on seismic announcement. But on any view even out quarter share of 2tcf is worth multiples of the current mcap.

GLA. Been a long wait for a lot of us.

By me today.

Half year report, 27.9.23:

".....in August was further notified that this period would be delayed for 2-3 months due to personnel shortages and pressure of work at the regulator. Such approval waiting times are beyond the Company's control, but the joint venture is not aware of any problems with its application. In the meantime, all steps will be taken to ensure that producing operations can commence as soon as the approval has been received."

Https://x.com/james_ashton_/status/1717077873075302633?s=61&t=qBcoKadtpeaziPRqZIXyxg

The market does not yet believe in production. Not just licence granting but the production itself. And there is many a slip in such a centure. I should know, I watch Aussie Gold Hunters on Discovery.

So this is a classic over-correction when good news is proven scenario. And at this mcap the re rate is obvious. The market waiting for proof is the PIs opportunity (and risk). At this mcap the risk reward is too good and I have topped up a couple of times.

Patience will pay.

IMHO. GLA.

Page

Could not agree more and I have been. Got some just under 1p and some more just over. Free money.

I didnt mention 15% or an RNS!

To those still believing the Scir deal completion is irrelevant, a question.

How could any competent Govt grant a 25 yr development licence when the funding of the development was unclear? (That is, when Scir had 25% of the licence).

I would be interested to know if they would take the same view about a house purchase. (That is, lets not worry too much about the legal ownership or the paperwork).

Even if the Govt had acted in such a crazy way, Ara would not. Utter negligence to their shareholders if they had. (Yes. I know its a private company).

Licence next, ownership, paperwork and legalities then sorted.

Northern

Agreed. The seismic is massive. 2TCF - 8TCF is the range according to the Company itself. What I am not clear about is the full field position. I mean whether those numbers are Ntorya only or Numbers for the whole licence might be truly enormous (2TCF already is enormous and I run out of superlatives!).

I have said before, Ara are a canny lot. I am hoping that 8TCF is the floor not the ceiling.

With gas already discovered and a pipeling being built to sell the stuff hig numbers on the seismic really will move the dial.

Northern

The obvious thing to say (IMHO) is that although that percentage licence drop looks enormous, back when they had 75% they had no way to fund the development. Far too big for Aminex. Thats why the farmout was such a brilliant move. 25% of something that is enormous and is being funded at no more cost is a much better scenario in my view.

GLA

Northern

Actually I dont think there were sommany shares less back then. 10% or so more now?

What was very different was we had 75% of the licence then.

Cheers

Tradedesk

I love your enthusiasm and agree with it. So this is just a quibble that means nothing in the scheme of things.

For me the GSA is small beer compares to the Seismic upgrade, the drill spudding and production starting.

I even think the 25yr licence is more important than the GSA,

As I say it dosen't matter which order we rank them in. Its just something to do while we wait. ;)

Mew !

It should be New. Obvs!

Sigh

For the newly arrived here (I have the sense that Aminex is arriving on radars). Long termers know all this.

Aminex / Ara have 2TCF gas now. I reckon 2 TCF in the ground with no route to market is worth $800m. Thats based on past (old) deals like Cove.

Aminex have 25% of that gas. 500bcf. $200m.

The operator (Ara/Zubair - a Major, knows what they are doing) has looked at the paperwork and estimated that there is 8TCF of gas. That is based on legacy old 2D seismic. They have shot 3D seismic and are expecting to announce the results this quarter. We know Ara are no fools. I am expecting confirmation or a betterment of the 8TCf number.

So 2TCF to Aminex. $800m in the ground. $6bn if you could pump and sell it all at once. Aminex' market cap at 10p per share is circa £450.

The rise is inevitable, even if the 3D only confirms 2 TCF.

Aminex also fully funded to production. Costs are reduced. Next drill is appraisal (lower risk) followed by (is it?) 5 other drills though those 5 have not been confirmed yet.

There is the chance of oil too. Thats a game changer.

On any rational risk / reward analysis Aminex at circa 1 - 1.4p (its range forever) is an absolute no brainer buy.

I have been here far too long but have been buying more recently (last week at under 1p).

Good luck.

It's Eejit.

An Eegit is a git in Yorkshire.

David

Ooh I agree.

What can they possibly mean by "the remainder of 2023"or "Quarter 4".

Its a mystery.

Got some under 1p.

Its like free money.

Goldgirl

Basically loads of mining opportunities being proved up. Gold, Silver and Copper. A hint of rare earth too. All requires funding and more work but (Imho) looks exciting.

But forget all that.

They are about to start producing gold and silver from tailings and heaps left by other operations in the past. The gold and silver is proven and they are building a production facility now. Awaiting sign off from the authorities but they have had the nod and went ahead and built pending approval.

Mcap is what? £2m ish? Production alone will give a return and also a route to funding the mining activities.

Have a look at the company's presentations on their website.

And then fill yer boots!

GLA

...Oman/Tanzania conference on Thursday all about gas co-operation.

Scirocco deal awaiting sign off by the Govt. 25 year licence to follow. What better way to make a splash for the conference?

Dam bursts, newsflow increases. Production and income by year end. Next drill by year end. Seismic quadrupling estimated size of asset (2 to 8tcf? More?)

I know regulars here know all this but am saying it just in case there are new people wondering and lurking.

Aminex in the starting blocks....

GLA non-idiots.

They wont say that before Scir deal has gone through.

I still believe (despite what is reported from the AGM) that the Scirocco deal being finalised is the hold up. It makes no sense to me to go ahead with major expenditure when the legal and financial basis for the partnership is unclear. Both ownership and who pays the costs are not clear yet. I think that deal approval will be the dam bursting for multiple newstreams.

I also think production this year is possible though a big ask.

I still dont care if production or drill is Easter 2024 rather than Christmas 2023. Its all coming our way. When not if.