Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
....I am in a twitter conversation @edgartwo2
The Company have liked two of these tweets.
Which I take to be an endorsement of production news being incoming.
Read the thread if interested.
https://twitter.com/asjwebley/status/1534450024066736129?s=21&t=IqKaQ6qMm91eZoeAUkCVtg
Fwiw (not much) I am not expecting the announcement of 3D seismic results to significantly shift the shareprice. My memory is that every seismic update has greatly increased the gas in place without much impact on share price (30% up and then drift down).
None of that matters to me. I remain utterly convinced this is now the buy of the century and I can wait for the drill, results, full field development etc. Continuing to buy when I can.
GLA
The 8TCF excludes the lower jurassic target.
So if its gas, what does that do to the numbers? From memory Onot had time to check) this lower exploration target is of a similar size to the higher appraisal targets. The higher targets are established gas. The lower might be water or dust. But if its gas and its a similar size does that potentially double the numbers again? 16 TCF?! Might be oil too.
....is expected in "late Q2", see the last presentation.
Thats by the end of June. Its the second half of May now. The rerate based on our sums is coming.
And then Southwark flow rates and anticipated production there.
Tanz. Was it this one in August 2021?
"June RNS:
"Moreover, their revised mapping and internal management estimates suggest a mean risked gas in place ("GIIP") for the Ntorya accumulation of 3,024 Bcf, in multiple lobes to be tested and a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf, which will be appraised by the planned seismic and drilling programme."
The issue is how you value that gas in the ground. At the moment it is stranded gas. So little value. Two catalysts will change the valuation of circa £25m. More gas being found. The stranding ceasing.
Lets remain super optimistic and say that the numbers hit 4TCF after the next drill. Or in other words let me round up. Our 25% licence would mean that is 1tcf net to Aminex. There are many arguments to be had over what value is ascribed to that amount of gas. But it is clear that as that volume of gas becomes less stranded and approaches market the value goes up from these levels. That is unarguable.
So although I have posed the question, ie. what value should that stranded gas in ground have, I am going to ignore my own question. My answer is it does not matter (to me) because it is more than £25m. Much more. As a very old back of fag packet and using old arguments like Cove, in ground 1TCf is £400m. The Cove valuation is years ago and is in a different market (offshore/LNG). But the gas price has trebled recently. Lets say I am wildly out and it is half of that. So £200m. That is x8 the current share price.
So my point is I don't care about precise valuations now as they are impossible. They become more possible as the production plans and route to market (including sale price and timeline) become clear. The one thing that is clear is that the share price will increase significantly. The 5-10p range is likely (IMHO). Beyond that will depend on what more is found and whether it is oil too.
The other thing I am comfortable about is that Zubair/Ara are as good as their word. They really do want to use Aminex as their vehicle in East Africa. I cannot pretend I know why. A more cutthroat large partner would just buy the whole company for the asset. They could pay double the mcap now and get a bargain. But they are not doing that.
I have said before and remain of the view that the risks for Aminex have all but gone. I guess the remaining risk is opportunity cost as the timeline is a year to the major catalyst. But on the views above this is a rare (I won't say once in a lifetime, oops I just did) opportunity. Low risk, huge asset, missed by market so far and a funded plan to realise the asset. It does not get any better than that.
All In my honest opinion. Do your own research. Good luck to the unfiltered ones on here!"
Gas is at 190p
Radika
Other news could propel us before drill results. Most likely is production from heaps starting. Less likely and a bit Hail Mary/Wild Card is a JV with a major for copper exploration and production. Then drilling results. I believe just the start of activity will see a small uplift in the share.
Marineclark
You are right. And 50% to IOG. Is how Iget to my ballpark £500k per day.
So 2 months of production. Might be £30m income to IOG (at £500k per day) already. Thats probably optimistic given delays and start up but you get the point. Debt is going to quickly disappear.
Turns out I cant read a screen properly. Up 22p or 16%.
Up 22% this morning.
"The only thing you get from trying to pick the bottom is a smelly finger". So don't.
The question is does the share look like it might go up from this level? With the newsflow to December 2022 and the increased revenue from Southwark and beyond, yes. Even moreso if you agree the gas price might be higher from September. This looks like a bargain to me.
Might it go down more? Yes. It might. LOG might sell and crash the price. Though they have a duty to get the best return. Demand for gas might end overnight (HaHa). There might be technical/operational issues (likely even?) that interrupt the cashflow. But if we wanted no risk we would put it in a deposit account and get 1% return. (And yes I know even that is not no risk, nothing is).
Taking a rational and dispassionate view of it (or trying to), the share price in the 20s is a bargain, IMHO. And none of that is based on the fact that it has been higher, which is irrelevant.
Sorry if the above sounds like i am lecturing you, Phippsy. I really don't mean it that way!
Pipe,
You are completely right.
https://twitter.com/lsewonderer/status/1522905326789484544?s=21&t=aqOrEyXpOhU2-azsz96RQQ
https://twitter.com/mining_great/status/1521790795652681728?s=21&t=OmPloHyW90290aKYhy2zPw