The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
The SQZ (Serica) results are interesting. Mcap circa £1bn. Read across to IOG been talked about here before. Will do a comparison when I have the time (day job keeping me busy atm) but on first blush reading both the reserves and the revenue look comparable if not worse than IOG's future?
Both the first payment for gas sold and the investor meeting event are happening on the 20th April.
Alligator (and others moaning about management)
Have you ever managed a construction project? Was it more than a kitchen re-fit? Was it offshore? When you started did you have the money to pay for it?
I think management have done an extraordinary job here on a shoestring (until farmout). Teething problems in any engineering or construction project are to be expected. Multiply that principle by 100 cos its offshore.
Perhaps you would all be happier with a deposit account?
....1 code just in....
RNS tomorrow.
;)
https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1512449197164924934?s=21&t=2y0iD3rlXodbETWOrwAJbQ
No Haggis. The only context is that you were replying to me. The record is there to be seen below. No talk of rainy seasons or anything else. The issue was delay in spud or not. I cannot stand people re-inventing facts to suit themselves, which is what you attempted this morning by claiming you foresaw a delay when in fa t you were saying there would be no delay.
Last message from me on the subject.
""Why would you think of a delay in the spud?
We already worked out that APT would analyse the target CH-1 data as soon as it arrives, and that by doing so they can easily get the spud done on time."
No misunderstanding of the above on my part.
Delay to spud much less than I feared.
Nyuni relinquished not a surprise bit might be a blow to the market?
KN1 need to re-read but we are getting free seismic? Pleased no expenditure there at this stage. Complicated compartmentalised geology and money is tight.
Half revenue deferred. The other half coming it at approx £0.5m per day net to IOG?
I agree that delay in drilling and plans is what explains the need to fund raise now rather than slightly later with a higher share price.
Hasn't stopped me topping up. But I will now be (pleasantly) surprised if CH1 is spudded this year.
But who knows. If it is safe to speculate I could equally speculate that the 3d seismic is fast tracking the next 8 wells and there is a much bigger drill programme about to be announced (with possible associated delay tp]o CH1).
The timing issues don't matter to me. I have always been here for the enormous assets. But I think some more delay is the reality.
Bullfrog
Well said and I completely agree with you on KN1.
Compartmentalised gas structures, difficult and expensive to remedy. I dont mind them going back there with income from Ruvuma if they want to but for now, preserve cash, sit back and wait.
Fwiw I topped up yesterday.
Last RNS comtemplated chemical injection to fix the problem this week and flowing immediately after.
So we might be producing at 90mmscf/d again already.
Gas price per therm is down to 290p as I type. So I am afraid that flow rate is only £2.6m per day gross (£1.3m net to IOG).
"To take Crusty's point $35 million spent over 4 or 5 years and under the Zubairs control is worth a lot less that $35 million handed over up front."
Not if it proves up the asset and/or moves it closer to market. It might be worth more than the money spent in those (ie. Aminex') circumstances. By which I mean if you spend £40m to provide a (Say) £40m pa income then the spend is not just a spend with the money gone but has increased the capital value of the asset as well as bringing income.
Jetty
I have never held Solo or Scir but feel a loyalty to them for their support during the dark days for Aminex. I think your analysis is right. I don't really inderstand why anyone wanting to play the Tanzania gas game would choose Scir over Aex.
That said Scir's holding has real value. Assuming it is 1TCF in the ground than that is worth $100s of millions and increasing as route to market becomes clear.
So I believe Scir is too cheap on that basis.
I genuinely wish holders all the best, for the reasons alluded to above.