Newsflow24 Jun 2023 10:18
Fwiw I believe AEX have no control over the newsflow. This is entirely to be expected with their non-operator status. When they get news they have to RNS it if it is material. What that means is that they don't know whether there will be an update prior to the AGM (as I am sure they would like).
But updates are due. The seismic is due "mid year" and it does not get any more mid year than late June. The Scir deal has been put back a number of times and is overdue. I think the 25 year licence is awaiting that. On production it is not (for me) the time it takes to lay a pipeline but the compensation and legal issues around the land use (as mentioned in the last RNS). It is also worth noting that the last update talked of production later than October and seemed to suggest January 2024. Oct-Jan does not matter to me given the size of the potential prize.
There is an enormous amount of upcoming newsflow on all fronts. All of it material to the share price. But the three that will really move the dial (IMHO) are firstly seismic confirmation of the 2-8 TCF target at Ntorya (not the wider Ruvuma area, which is being properly mapped for the first time). I have no feel for ARA and whether they are realistic/optimistic/pessimistic in their operator estimates (of 8 TCF based on legacy 2D). I see no reason for them to over-egg it. They have no shareholders, are not raising money based on resources and I am prepared to accept they are just telling it as they see it. 3D seismic confirmation of 8TCF (2TCF to AEX) or even more will confirm this as a world class asset (again this is Ntorya only not the wider Ruvuma area). It will also start the process of moving the numbers from estimates and GIIP to reserves and resources. That process will continue with the drill bit. It cannot be overstated how important that is to the market's valuation.
Secondly, the drill, target size, rig contract, spudding etc.
Thirdly the regulatory issues. The 25 year licence is huge and is awaiting the Scir sign off (IMHO). That will largely take out the Govt and bureaucratic delays.
I am properly all in. I have quadrupled my holding since the spike in 2017. If my belief in the size of the prize here is right or even half-right this is a potentially life changing share for me. I already have 3-4 bags (not realised) from my purchases at 0.4p. That said there is a way to go until I hit my intial purchase in the 20s!
I have said it before (so forgive the repetition) these last few yards with the finish line in sight are the hardest.
Good luck to all the regulars here that I don't have on filter. Eyes on the prize.
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