Member Info for edgar222

Roger

Would you mind posting your list again?

I think it is very helpful.

Deltalo

Like you I am confident of a total bounce back to previous levels. But its impossible to value now beyond that it is too low.

The comparison with previous levels is about to be rendered obsolete, too. At 40p we had Southwark about to come onstream but I suspect that has been abandoned, to be confirmed. But now we have the imminent licence round and talk of phase 2 with the Cal Energy cash injection that involves, further work and developments on phase 2 and beyond and profitable prodcution all the while.

Future looking bright, this level looking cheap.

IMHO. DYOR.

Good list Roger.

Given that I have been here for over a decade it never fails to amaze me how the patience wears thin as the finish line is in sight. These are the hard yards!

Ooh Basher, talk me through that calculation?

Sadaat on twitter has just suggested an Ara farm in to Nyuni and I may need to lie down.

Would fit their strategy? Remember their declaration that Aminex was to be the Zubair vehicle for entering East Africa.

Thanks for the replies(so far) and I agree with all your points.

In identifying the 3 points I have I was trying to identify company changing/making news. For example, a 3d seismic resource upgrade and confirmation of 8TCF of gas, moving it from estimates or Giip to reserves/resources or something more proven is exactly what the institutions and market are looking for. Same with production/income. Same with drills.

There are many other bits of news. GSAis one. But given the Govt attitude to Aminex now, by which I mean their roaring "GET ON WITH IT" I just dont believe paperwork is the big issue it once was.

I repeat, I am not disagreeing with the replies so far. I am just trying to identify the major bits of news that will get us to my 12p.

These are good problems to have ;)

Three major catalysts upcoming. We know the date for 2 of them. Each one of them potentially company making but all three coming at the same time.

3d seismic results mid year. Results just published confirm resources / reserves upgrade to accompany. Just confirmation of the operator estimates (8TCF) would be enormous. But a chance of hogher numbers? (Chance of lower numbers too). The current Giip is 2TCf.

Production. Sales, income. October 2023. The Govt pressing for this now.

CH1 drill. They know the location backed up by the 3d seismic. Later this year is the closest we have to a date.

They repeatedly say 2023 is an enormous and decisive year for Aminex and on the basis of the above that is true.

The other snippet that is not a major catalyst but just shows where the company is placed in Tanzania is that they are trying to give up their Nyuni licence and the Govt is refusing and asking them to carryon via a farmout! Speaks volumes.

Very happy. Fully loaded already. Have been buying quite a lot more recently. But I cant promise I have stopped.

https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1652052713071337474?s=61&t=qBcoKadtpeaziPRqZIXyxg

Aminex. #AEX. They can't spell it out any clearer than this. Low risk high impact fully funded field development and further drilling with eye wateringly larger numbers of already discovered gas.

'Nuff said.

Break even for IOG if it remains the same as at FiD is 45p

I read it as saying although the gold price looks ok/high when compared to equitiesit is low. So much further to go.

I think it is also saying gold miners are undervalued compared to historyic prices. So much further to go.

...from AJ Bell on gold producers and gold relative to stock market....

"One thing is certain. Gold is trading toward the lower end of its range relative to global equities (as benchmarked by the FTSE All-World since its inception in 1994) and gold miners are trading at near-historic lows relative to the metal’s price (as benchmarked by the HUI and its inception in 1997)."

The carry is describes as a development carry. And the £65m represents 80% of the costs of phase 2. So not quite a free carry, there is a cost of phase 2 to IOG, but still excellent!

(See farm out announcement 2019)

Yes, Haggis. I have days like that. Its better though than some drivel. (Can I just say Roger I am not aiming at you its only that my post was after yours!)

Guys. It is so boring reading the second guessing of the intentions of other posters. Use the filter button ffs.

Ignore that. Tried to post a laughing emoji!

??

Hardnose

You make a fair point. And it is another reason why the share is so difficult to value.

CH1 appraisal plus 3d seismic will vastly increase knowledge and with the pipeline actually built and working there is no reason why we wont have serious reserve numbers come October production, is there? (Genuine question!)

So to answer the original question, yes they have struckk proven gas and it has flowed at commercial rates.

What no one knows yet is how much gas there is. GIIP is 2TCF. Operator estimates are 8TCF. The next drill (CH1) is an appraisal well (now) and the results of that well together with 3D seismic mean that we will know much more soon.

There is no doubt that there is commercial gas. The Govt is building a pipeline so it can flow to market.

Whether it is 2 or 8 TCF the numbers are enormous. 300BCF in the north sea is described as "enormous".

Topped up this morning. Just before the rise. I claim all the credit for the rise. The fact that a significant re-rate is now overdue does not detract from my influence over the market.

;)

Thanks all for the responses.

In my list of really really very imminent news I forgot the flow tests. 2 weeks from late March they said.