Member Info for edgar222

Code 1 everybody.

CODE 1

Nobody panic.

Well spotted, Gaslady

Page

Those were me. Kid's ISAs. My youngest moved the market this morning!

Totally agree JH77.

Put my money where my mouth is and bought more (nearly doubled my holding). Even got them at the low today.

It seems to me (fwiw, which is not much as I am not technically qualified in any way including reservoir management) that the current constrained production at the current average sell price for gas underpins the share price. The risks on Blythe significantly reduced (for me anyway) on that RNS. The fault is not geological but a drilling accident and therefore likely to be a one off. Even if they dont fix it they can produce at a constrained rate. We have another well on production and Southwark coming onstream. So the future potential upside is enormous and (Imho) not priced in at these levels.

My average was 9p and I have now averaged up twice at 28p and today at whatever it was (18p ish).

So for me this morning's RNS has reduced the risk in the Blythe reservoir by making it manageable and, in any event, self contained to that well. Production underpins the share and the upside is obvious. Thats a risk reward balance I like.

GLA

A decade?

Newcomer!

PF builder

I agree with every word.

I just want to point out to new people that the enormous target is already discovered and proved up. Buying Aminex now is not a bet on drill bit success. They already have a massive gas field that is of commercial size (and a Major developing it and no further cost to Aminex). The issue is how much bigger is it.

It went to 7p on the last drill results. The next drill was meant to be back to back. 5 years on and it still hasnt happened. Last drill was 75% of licence but that proportion of costs too. Now 25% and fully carried, no cost to significant production. Shares in issue roughly the same, about 10% more now than then.

If CH1 appraises upwards the gas already discovered and then discovers more below 7p will be just the start on those results, IMHO.

Prefer it to move up in a sonnet...

Boom Boom

'Ere all week

Data for drill location mid September. Then evaluation. Then new drill pad (if it moves location). I no longer believe they can spud in November. If location does not move with the 3D then they might be able to.

Not relevant to the story but relevant to timings, expectations and possible dips before the inevitable upward curve that is the CH1 drill.

Assuming the lab is processing results as they arrive in and not waiting for them all to test in one go, we must be near to the first results, surely?

I got 2 lots at 0.4p in the last few years. 3 bags and multiples to come.

But don't feel too happy for me as my first purchase was around 23p.

Operational difficulties are not a problem for me and are to be expected.

What shocks me is the revenue number being so low.

Even allowing for revenue really only being for 2Q because of the delay to production (though it is expressed as 1H revenue) this is significantly below my private expectations and public (on this board) calculations.

Been away. Just wanted to say. The recent comments on here about arms being bitten off for 55p are way wide of the mark. With current production and income (soon to be confirmed in financial results), southwark, current gas prices and winter coming 55p is way too cheap.

We can argue about comparators, reserves v income until we are blue in the face. But the growing cash pile and reducing debt pile will become obvious and will not allow much argument.

Ufo

Very interesting post re valuations and thank you. Its the debate about how to value AEX that tantalises. Reserves or production. In any event we all know its worth much more than current mcap on either basis. On whatever basis I do it I get very easily to 8p - 10p plus but can see an argument for 20p medium term. If the further 6 well programme does happen I think production might be quickly much much more than that 40mmscf/d that is the minimum under the farmout.

I am very reassured by today's confirmation of spud date. I was skeptical. I still am a bit. Its August and they have only just received the data. That said, I am a stone cold believer in the Aminex value story and any skepticism I feel about the spud date is only a timing issue, not one of fundamentals. A slippage in the spud date would not make me sell and it would probably be a buying opportunity as the traders leave again.

Exciting times ahead and not too far away now.

GLA

At 60mmscf/d sales of £4 per therm (if happening) are worth circa £1.2m per day to IOG net of farmout 50%.

As we know, doubling production in Q4, all being well. Thats the winter. Prices higher?

Mad cash generation.

I have said before and will say again, it is getting awfully close to spud date for seismic still to be happening.

And yes I have read the (helpful) posts on here about modern seismic and speed of interpretation.

But still.

I will be relieved when it is done and November spud is confirmed.

Fighting through some resistance arounnd here. Once past 37p off to the races....

Nbp 244p (if I am looking at the right website)

He confirms southwark will "approximately double" current production. So in Q4 2022. I think thats the first such confirmation?

https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1549840911512870914?s=21&t=2iC-ykeIuDu1_lH0YOgU0A

It does really feel like little GWMO could be on the cusp of something.

I should not be surprised, its why I bought in the first place.

Great drill results are the game changer but I am almost more excited about production news. If the risk of dilution is gone and GWMO can self fund that would be an incredible step.

Fingers crossed.